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Sunday, 22 June 2014

Checking the Price History

Below we have a classic example of two items where the sell orders are not representative of the fair price in the region and therefore these sell orders are unlikely to be filled.

At first glance, the Sell orders look good.  The below items do not sell in much volume, 2 sell orders each are up.  Potentially these look like good items to trade.





Even better, the Jita Sell order prices are 2.8m and 110m respectively - so a potential healthy margin.  I could buy one of each item from Jita and sell it here hoping to make a profit before taxes of 12m and 70m, respectively.

The problem comes when the recent history is inspected for each item:





The most recent sell orders have been done at 5m and 119m respectively - and even those prices have been elevated vs prior days.

Therefore, there is not a hope that the 14.9m ISK sell orders will be fulfilled, and likewise there is not a hope that the 180m ISK sell orders will be fulfilled.

It always pays to quickly check the price history as well as reference the Sell order prices to those at Jita.

6 comments:

  1. I have been following the blog for a while now. Very informative. Ive since decided to try out trading myself now, alongside my main character who does wormholes and incursions.

    Do you have all characters in one corp? I saw the question asked before, but dont recall seeing if you went with it or not. Currently I have 6 characters across 2 accounts. All in the same corp as Directors / CEO.

    Setup as the following.
    Account 1 - Main / Amarr Seller / Jita -> X Buyer
    Account 2 - Dodixie Seller / Jita -> X Buyer / Training toon.

    Buyers are minimal skill toons.
    Sellers have decent skills trained to reduce costs, and have lots of orders up.

    When im logged into one of the Sellers, I can log into the other buyer in Jita to make live pricing comparions, make orders and arrange PushX courier contracts to ship to that trade hub. Items are shipped as Corp Courier contracts, so the items end up in the market delivery tab at destination.

    I have found this system works very well, and saves having to make item exchange contracts at the receiving end, as the seller simply moves them to his hangar, and puts up the sell orders.

    The Training Toon, is something ive decided to look into on the side. Seems there is a market for Starter Capital piltots / SuperCap Sitters. Seeing as im not skill training the seller, might prove to be a good return in 3 months when I sell him. They seem to sell for around 6bil.

    Would very much like to see your opinion on this sort of setup.

    Cheers

    Orii Muvila

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes - i have all my characters in one corp. It makes moving ISK around easier and my buyer in Jita always buys using corp funds and contracts the hauling on behalf of the corp - that way any character can see how the contract is going. Essentially, the buyer in Jita does not use its own ISK and doe everything on behalf of the corp. It looks like your set up is very much like mine.

      I have not tried a trainer toon - will be interesting to see how that goes.

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    2. Personally I've hardly ever had any characters in the same corp, my trading and play style hasn't really called for it.

      One of the key tricks I've used to help with very swift price comparisons between regions however is to open a personal "chat" window between two or more characters, and then simply dragging the item from the market window into the chat window. It then makes a link that the price-checking character can right click and quickly select the relevant menu option to swiftly bring it up in the market window at their end.

      It's a quick and simple method to get price comparisons extremely quickly between any two regions, and if you have multiple accounts and characters I highly recommend it.

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    ReplyDelete
  3. On a related note, have you ever read "Predictably Irrational?" He has an experiment in there where he shows that people have a tendency to "imprint" on the first price that they pay for an item, and any fluctuations will be compared against it. While it is possible to create a new baseline, it takes a LONG time to establish it.

    Thus, to further reinforce your post, if people are accustomed to paying a lower price for an item, they will likely resist paying a higher price even if there are no other sell orders available at that price anymore.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes - it can take a while for the market to rebase upwards. Perhaps the slight difference is that in Eve players may value their "play time" higher and so be willing to pay the price to get the item and move on.

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