That is a lot of numbers, i know. So, in summary:
- I suspect i am wrong mainly because i do note know 2 key things
- Firstly, i am not sure what the ongoing Research & Development spend will be - i have estimated about $24m per year
- Secondly, i don't know if CCP still has access to the tax credits from the US now that they have closed down World of Darkness (that brought in a few million $ each year)
- Having said that i have Revenues going backwards in 2014 by 3.7% and then advancing onwards
- I have CCP being mildly profitable
- I have nothing in for Valkyrie revenues
- BUT i still have them losing cash given the spend on Research & Development
- Which means that their debt rises too far by the end of 2015 - that is why i think i am wrong!
Question 2: i don't know what the other one-off costs in 2014 were for closing offices etc. If i knew those i could get a better idea of the underlying costs of CCP going forwards.
Question 3: CCP acquired a US company in part for the tax breaks. I don't have a feel as to what the ongoing tax credits should be.
aside from that, I could do with more data on the number of subscribers.
That all said, the summary from my work so far is:
- Revenues fall 4% in 2014 to $74m with Eve Online falling 6% offset by a fast growing China. So 2014 would be the first revenue decline in CCP history.
- In 2015 revenues grow to $78m and then $82m in 2016, i.e. 5% growth per annum
- CCP makes a loss in 2014 of $23m mainly due to writing off World of Darkness for $24m (less any tax benefit).
- In 2015 and 2016 CCP make about $1 - 2m per year.
- Net debt rises to $18.5m in 2014 and then to $24m in 2015 and $29m in 2016
If R&D was more like $17m per year (similar to 2012) reflecting ongoing Eve R&D and the development of Valkyrie then the above would look very difference. Profits and cash would be would be $6 to $8m better in 2015 and the net debt would be falling.
I don't expect we will get an update from CCP until the 2014 accounts are out sometime in 2015.
In any event, i suspect the focus on keeping new players will be enhanced. Getting a new player to enter the game is expensive enough. Within other businesses keeping a new player through the steep learning curve is the prize - and i can't see Eve Online being any different.