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Friday, 5 August 2016

Eve Economic Report for July - ISK added to the economy

The monthly Economic Report for July is out.


In summary:


The summer lull goes on: Trade is down; Production is down; and Mining is down.  That said, we have a return to the normal status of ISK being added to the economy and so Plex prices are rising again.

Starting to see a change in dynamics with the two smaller Trade Hubs of Rens and Hek perhaps under threat as centers of activity.

Items of note from Regional Activity


Trade - down 9%


I am hoping this is still the summer lull - trade was down 9% in July on top of a 23% fall in June and a 14% fall in May.  To put this in perspective, Total trade in July was 514 trillion ISK vs February of 977 trillion, that is a fall of 47%.

Going through the Trade Hubs: The Forge (Jita) has fallen 48% since February; Domain (Amarr) has also fallen 48% since February - so both the main trade hubs are down with the average.  However, Sing Laison (Dodixie) has fallen 54%; Heimatar (Rens) has fallen 53%; and Metropolis (Hek) has fallen 52% - so it appears the other major trade hubs are falling faster.

If i just looked at Regions that did over 1 trillion ISK of trade (18 regions) then three are actually up since February: Catch which has risen 5%; Fade which has risen a massive 267%; and Vale of the Silent which has risen 23%.  All low/null sec.

Providence, which had been holding up, fell by 22% in July and Lonetrek, which had also been holding up, took a 23% dive in July.

I have put the top 10 trade Regions for each of July, June, May and April below to allow readers to see how far trade has come back:


Below is the top 10 Trade Regions in July


Trillions
1 The Forge 367.9
2 Domain 59.7
3 Sinq Laison 19.4
4 Heimatar 10.5
5 Lonetrek 9.1
6 Metropolis 7.4
7 Essence 3.3
8 Providence 3.2
9 The Citadel 3.2
10 Tash-Murkon 1.9


Below is the top 10 Trade Regions in June


Trillions
1The Forge399.2
2Domain67.1
3Sinq Laison21.2
4Heimatar12.4
5Lonetrek11.9
6Metropolis9.7
7Providence4.2
8Essence3.8
9The Citadel3.3
10Tash-Murkon2.5



Below is the top 10 Trade Regions in May
Trade
Trillions
1The Forge517.1
2Domain86.2
3Sinq Laison30.0
4Heimatar15.5
5Lonetrek13.0
6Metropolis12.9
7Essence5.2
8The Citadel5.2
9Providence4.5
10Tash-Murkon4.1


Below is the top 10 Trade Regions for April:



Trillions
1The Forge597.7
2Domain99.4
3Sinq Laison34.8
4Heimatar19.1
5Lonetrek18.6
6Metropolis14.0
7The Citadel7.1
8Essence6.5
9Providence4.4
10Tash-Murkon4.1



Nothing much changed in terms of Region ranking in July.  The Trade Hubs dominate though Lonetrek continues to secure its position ahead of Metropolis (Hek).  Metropolis (Hek) looks secure in its position as the 6th largest trade Region but that is starting to look a dull place to be.

Lonetrek is still battling hard to replace Hek as the number 4 Trade Hub.  It really got to the number 5 slot during World War Bee and continues to holds it position.

As a reminder to new players, the main 5 Trade Hubs in the order we know: The Forge (i.e. Jita); Domain (i.e. Amarr); Sinq Laison (i.e. Dodixie); Heimatar (i.e. Rens); Metropolis (i.e. Hek).

In the next 5: the expected Essence and Tash-Murkon are there, known secondary trade hubs.  But also Lonetrek and Citadel (both Regions that are one jump out of Jita) and Providence (null sec space that borders several highsec Regions: Domain / Tash-Murkon / Devoid / Derelik).

The dominance of The Forge (Jita) reigns supreme though - Jita shows no sign of losing its dominance.  It is no surprise that citadels in High-Sec are parking themselves close to Jita as they fight for its business.


Deklein (home region of the losing side in World War Bee) saw its first monthly rise in trade since March, with trade up 20%.  Remains a shadow of its former self though.

Looking at trends since February, the big risers have been Fade (rank 39 to 12), Immensea (rank 42 to 21) and Vale of the Silent (rank 21 to 13).  Regions with trade over 1 trillion ISK need to be in the top 18.

The big fallers have been Deklein (rank 13 to 24), Oasa (rank 28 to 46), Querious (rank 18 to 28) and Wicked Creek (rank 17 to 49).



Production - down 10%


Production fell 10%, looks like it is giving back its large rise of 39% rise in May (likely on the back of building Citadels and rebuilding destroyed items in World War Bee) following a fall of 17% in June as well.

Production is now a mere 5% above February levels - suggests we continue to see the effect of Citadel building.  Still, we have the seeming contradiction that Production remains above February levels yet Trade has almost halved since then.  My best guesses remain that either Corporations are mining and processing their own raw materials rather than buy them from the market, or that the purchases were made in prior months.

I have put the top 10 Production Regions for July, June, May and April below.



Top 10 Production Regions for July:


Trillions
1 The Forge 20.6
2 Lonetrek 14.4
3 The Citadel 9.6
4 Domain 5.8
5 Providence 3.9
6 Sinq Laison 3.9
7 Tribute 2.7
8 Malpais 2.2
9 Cobalt Edge 2.1
10 Vale of the Silent 1.9


Top 10 Production Regions for June:

Trillions
1The Forge22.9
2Lonetrek15.0
3The Citadel11.2
4Domain6.7
5Providence5.1
6Sinq Laison4.3
7Catch2.8
8Geminate2.6
9Malpais2.6
10Black Rise2.5



Top 10 Production Regions for May:

Production
Trillions
1The Forge32.7
2Lonetrek19.6
3The Citadel15.1
4Domain8.9
5Providence5.4
6Sinq Laison5.3
7Geminate3.7
8Catch2.8
9Tash-Murkon2.6
10Malpais2.4

Top 10 Production Regions for April:



Trillions
1
The Forge
19.6
2
Lonetrek
14.0
3
The Citadel
11.8
4
Domain
7.3
5
Sinq Laison
5.3
6
Providence
3.6
7
Metropolis
2.8
8
Geminate
2.5
9
Malpais
2.1
10
Tash-Murkon
2.0


Nothing of substance to say about the rankings - some changes towards the bottom half but these are small numbers.

The Regions of The Forge and its neighbours Lonetrek and Citadel dominated - they were always big production centers but now take on the role as being where Citadels are being focused in High Sec to take business away from Jita.

For new players - The Forge remains the top slot - makes sense, many people will produce near where they buy the raw materials and/or intend to sell.

Domain and Sinq Laison are the other two major Trade Hubs - hence would expect Production to be there.

Providence, is a Low Sec Region but borders several highsec Regions: Domain / Tash-Murkon / Devoid / Derelik and has a more inviting stance for players - hence we would expect to see it be up there in the Production rankings.

Deklein (home region of the losing side in World War Bee) saw a 25% rise in July on top of a 61% rise in Production in June (someone moving back in?) though still down 56% since February.

That said, there is plenty of movement going on below the top 10.

There have many plenty big movers since February.  Notable increases since February have been seen in Branch which is up 16%, Colbalt Edge which is up 161% to 2.1 trillion, Delve which is up 61% to almost a trillion, Esoteria which is up 45% to 1.4 trillion, Fountain which is up 76% to over a trillion, Malpais which is up 62% to 2.2 trillion, Period Basis which is up 122% to almost a trillion, Providence which is up 22% to 3.9 trillion, Querious which is up 47% to almost a trillion and Tribute which is up 108% to 2.7 trillion.

If i singled out those that made the rise in May/June/July as indications of Citadel building then Branch, Colbalt Edge, Period Basis and Tribute look like they are Citadel affected.

Honorary mention goes to Cloud Ring which is up a massive 2399% from a mere 15 billion to a still small 384 billion and Detorid which is up 960% to a small 209 billion.

Of the fallers since February - a big note that two of the main trade hubs no longer feature in the top 10 . . . . Metropolis (Hek) and Heimatar (Rens).  Furthermore, Domain (Amarr) and Sinq Laison (Dodixie) have both fallen 15% since February - looks like Production is moving to Citadels, generally closer to Jita and perhaps into Low/Null sec.



Mining - down 7%

Mining was down 7% - more inline with Trade - though remains up 7% since February, not unlike Production.

Below is the top 10 Mining Regions in July:

Trillions
1 The Forge 1.4
2 Malpais 1.3
3 Cobalt Edge 1.1
4 Providence 1.0
5 Lonetrek 1.0
6 Domain 1.0
7 Metropolis 0.8
8 Branch 0.7
9 Tash-Murkon 0.7
10 Sinq Laison 0.7


Nothing special of note in mining this month, again.

Perhaps worth noting that we are seeing notable rises since February in Branch, Cobalt Edge, Paragon Soul and Malpais.  Either Null / Low sec is a lot more safer to mine or everyone is busily replenishing after World War Bee and to build Citadels.

Deklein, which historically had been a Top 10 mining Region fell to 46 in May and has since risen to position 21 though remains at less than half of its peak mining levels.

The Forge and Domain at the top given being major Trade Hubs - so people mining near where they intend to sell and Lonetrek being next to The Forge and itself a major production Region.

Providence is up there given it is nullsec space that is very connected to several High Sec Regions and has a more neutral policy to neutral players.


Destruction - up 15%

I had thought that Destruction was falling after World War Bee - but now it is back with 10% of those levels.  A nice 32 trillion ISK destroyed in July vs 35 trillion peak in April.


Below is the top 10 Destruction in July:

Trillions
1 The Forge 2.1
2 Black Rise 2.0
3 Lonetrek 1.9
4 The Citadel 1.6
5 Providence 1.3
6 Immensea 1.2
7 Sinq Laison 1.1
8 Pure Blind 1.0
9 Metropolis 1.0
10 Vale of the Silent 1.0


The top table is the top 10 Destruction in June:


Trillions
1
The Forge
2.0
2
Lonetrek
1.8
3
Black Rise
1.8
4
The Citadel
1.4
5
Providence
1.3
6
Querious
1.0
7
Domain
1.0
8
Catch
0.9
9
Vale of the Silent
0.8
10
Sinq Laison
0.8


The table below is the top 10 Destruction in May:

Destroyed
Trillions
1
Lonetrek
2.7
2
The Citadel
2.2
3
The Forge
1.9
4
Domain
1.4
5
Black Rise
1.4
6
Providence
1.2
7
Sinq Laison
1.1
8
Metropolis
1.1
9
Catch
1.0
10
Querious
1.0


The table below is the top 10 Destruction in April:

Trillions
1
Lonetrek
3.0
2
Pure Blind
2.3
3
The Forge
2.3
4
The Citadel
1.9
5
Black Rise
1.6
6
Domain
1.4
7
Tribute
1.1
8
Deklein
1.1
9
Metropolis
1.1
10
Sinq Laison
1.1



Not much of note in July other than Black Rise made another appearance in the top 10 - a consistent top 10 appearance since February.  If i followed the battles in Eve more closely, i suspect i would have a better idea as to why certain Regions appear in the top 10.

That said, always expect to see The Forge (Jita region) and its two connecting Regions (Lonetrek and Citadel) in the top 10.

Sinq Laison (Dodixie) also there but no Domain (Amarr) this time.  Odd that the number two Trade Hub Region has fallen out of the top 10 - i would have thought the ganking at least would have kept it in its normal top 10 position.

Notable movers upwards in Destruction have been Immensea - new top 10 entrant; Vale of the Silent which is flirting constantly with the top 10; and Fade which is now a constant top 20 position.  All consistent with a rise in Trade in those Regions since February.

Life as normal of course means that Destruction follows Trade - for that, read ganking.

For The Forge, during July there was 540 trillion ISK of goods imported into the Region and 637 trillion ISK of goods exported.  Out of all that, a mere 2.1 trillion was destroyed.  A drop in the ocean really, only 0.2% of all traffic value - lets call that the "gank coefficient".  Though annoying if you happen to be amongst that drop.

In fact, all the major Trade Hubs don't see more than 0.3% of their import+export traffic destroyed in May.  Ganking is clearly there but just not the threat it is made out to be.

If i looked for Regions that have imports and exports of at least over 100 trillion each then the only Region that sees a decent "gank coefficient" is Black Rise where 0.8% gets destroyed.

Imports and Exports

I normally watch the Imports and Exports as an indicator on the travel of goods or, more recently, the movement of war.

In all, Imports were up 3% and Exports were up 3% following a 18% fall in June.  Still up 8% since February through down 17% from the recent peak in April.  I suspect the rise into April was due to war mobilisation.

Similar to what we are seeing in Production, Black Rise is seeing a notable increase in Imports and Exports - more than doubled since February.  Placid saw a nice 30% rise, as did Pure Blind.  Add all that together and it looks like we have a rising transport of items through Black Rise to Placid to Pure Blind.  Or in the other direction.

I also like to look for big Net Importers of Net Exporters as an indication of an end point, or start point, of goods.  I would always expect to see The Forge (Jita) be a big net Importer as players bring stuff into Jita and keep it there.  Hence, i would expect to see many of the adjacent Regions to The Forge be net exporters as players transport their goods through those regions to get to Jita - and that is the case with big net exports from Lonetrek / Citadel / Metropolis / Geminate.  That said, this time Sinq Laison is a net importer instead of a net exporter - which chimes with more activity on that side of the map in July.

The only stand out oddity in the net importers vs net exporters is Aridia which imported 88 trillion and only exported 54 trillion.



Items of note in the Sinks and Faucets

We are back to the traditional trend of the net of Sinks and Faucets adding ISK to the economy after April and May saw rare examples of ISK contraction.  July saw 26.7 trillion added to the Eve economy, a rise on the 24.5 trillion in June though mainly due to falling expenditure.

The overall ISK in the economy grew once we eliminate the 21.7 trillion that left due to players leaving the game - first growth in ISK since March.  ISK in the game is now 956 trillion vs the recent peak of 972 trillion in March.

We are still seeing the effect of the Tax rises.  As a reminder on 27 April 2016, Transaction Tax (a tax on items sold) went from 1.5% to 2.0% and Broker Fees (a tax on orders placed on the market for future fulfillment) went from 1% to 3%.

Broker fees fell 9% to 10.6 trillion but remains double the level in February and March.  Transaction Tax fell 4%.  Recall that Trade fell 9% in July.  Hence these declines are not unexpected.  The greater fall in Broker Fees is likely due to "off-shoring" whereby Buy and Sell Orders are posted from Citadels (but into NPC stations) to dodge the Broker Fee tax in NPC stations.  The fact that Transaction Taxes fell less than Trade to me indicates that plenty of Trade continues to take place in the NPC stations.

Blueprints fell 28% to 4.5 trillion on top of the 59% fall in June and the 38% fall in May.  Blueprint spending peaked in April at 24.8 trillion but remains above the February level of 3.3 trillion.  Suggests we are winding down now on Citadel Blueprint buying.

On the income side: Bounty Prizes were flat at 42.5 trillion; Commodity fell 9% to 13.7 trillion; Incursion Payouts fell 7% to 9.1 trillion; and insurance rose 9% to 3.2 trillion.  Nothing much to say about all that other than to note that Bounty Prices have been picking up since the end of World War Bee as combatants get back to ratting.

Project Discovery remains in decline.  It started as 340 billion Income back in March but is now a mere 78 billion.



Items of note in the Money Supply

Nothing to say this month other than money supply rose for the first time since March from 950 trillion ISK to 956 trillion, as noted above.

The greatest inflow of ISK into the game as a % of the prior day's ISK was on 17 October 2014 when 4.9 trillion ISK came into the game (=0.66% of the prior day's ISK in the game).  And indeed 18 October 2014 was the third largest day with 4.1 trillion ISK coming into the game.  Not sure why this would be: Plex went over 800m though that itself would not cause ISK to flow into the game; may also relate to SOMER Blink reimbursing prior deposits (see paragraph below).

The greatest outflow of ISK from the game occured on 20 August 2014 when a massive 32.7 trillion ISK left the game (=4.3% of the prior day's ISK in the game).  Most likely to do with the banning of SOMER Blink from the game on that day.  To put this in perspective, the next largest outflow of ISK was on 8 January 2016 when 4.8 trillion left the game (=0.52% of the prior day's ISK in the game) - again, most likely due to a banning event: The Latest IWANTISK Ban Wave.  Seems at least to be a pattern to the major outflow days = banning days.



Mapping all that onto Plex Prices

I greatly suspect players, like myself, use surplus ISK generated each month to buy Plex.  When i say "surplus" i of course mean surplus to all other requirements - where i have a choice of letting my ISK balance grow with no chance of generating further returns or i can invest it somewhere.

Normally, there is 20 - 30 trillion of surplus ISK generated which, through the mechanisms of trading, makes its way nicely up to the business owners and bankers in Eve.

They then park some of that in Plex.  That is what makes Plex an inflation hedge - where inflation is defined as money supply.  That is, the rising amount of ISK in Eve.

However, we have had three recent events which have disrupted that flow.

Firstly, World War Bee, i suspect, will have seen a higher than normal selling pressure to finance the war.  For a few months that extra ISK generated went into financing the war and i suspect hoarded reserves of Plex were sold to help out.  That i suspect is now largely over.

Secondly, Citadel building will also have seen a higher than normal selling pressure to finance the cost of building Citadels.  That appears to be scaling back to more of an ongoing expense rather than the rush we saw recently.

Thirdly, the rise in Transaction Taxes and Broker Fees has added a further 5 trillion of additional ISK sink to Eve.  Worth noting that it was an additional 15 trillion ISK sink until players discovered "off-shoring".  That is here to stay though good to see player innovation minimizing its affect.

The point here is that the recent headwinds to ISK generation are now lessening such that we are again generating surplus ISK and so Plex rises have started to rise again in response.  When those headwinds were the strongest in April, May and June we saw ISK leave the economy and so Plex prices fell.  Prior to those months, ISK only left Eve on three prior occasions - August 2014, April 2014 and March 2014.

4 comments:

  1. Mining is Down: I would be really curious to see if this related to the reduced active player accounts or possibly player adaption towards procurer and skiffs; which mine less and tank more.

    ReplyDelete
  2. @ easy esky

    As people are completing citadels, and they are available for purchase, then need to mine ores yourself is lower, that's maybe the decline.

    @ article

    About destruction rise after WWB, maybe destruction out of war is always higher as during. In big wars people don't PVE (and loose ships in pockets, in travel, etc), don't ship stuff massively from A to B unless really necessary. The out of war era's just could be more violent always.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Do you believe that the market will recover from the downward trending you wrote of in recent months or will it settle at a much lower level than before?

    I've just returned to Eve after nearly two years without logging in. Before that I had been following the practices you outlined in this blog and the excellent advice and recommendations you've given.

    In the first 90 days with only minimal attention given to business my buyer went from 4.8 mil fresh out of the newbie career missions to owning a corp worth ~1.2 billion before computer and assorted difficulties stopped me playing.

    On returning I did expect changes because the patches and updates continue of course. But it seems that currently the market is a shadow of it's former glory.

    A lot of things are turned backwards. Things that I used to sell at a profit in Amarr & Dodixie now would be better to buy there and sell in Jita since it's got the higher prices on many of those items.

    Other items that once sold 3 and 4 per week have no data at all in the price history, not having sold any units as far back as the history goes.

    Still others seem to no longer exist at all. eve-central and eve-marketdata have zero information on them.

    I've scrapped my old shopping list and spent a few hours on eve-central building a new one. (why does it not show blueprints anymore?) Today is the first time I've ever had over 1.6 billion in total sell orders at once.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I suspect it will pick up after the summer. ultimately the market is a function of the size of the player base and its activity.

      Delete

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