tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post1916674910846069322..comments2024-03-22T08:28:53.318+00:00Comments on marketsforISK: CCP Financials - Eve Online (ex China) RevenuesCrodahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-64347040596078305512013-11-10T20:21:29.728+00:002013-11-10T20:21:29.728+00:00on your first point - at this stage I am not attem...on your first point - at this stage I am not attempting to factor in the discounts or proportion of sales through third parties. I struggled to find any indications of the price CCP gives away or the proportion of sales through third parties.<br /><br />on your point on the % breakdown of when subscribers leave - I have attempted to find the average point which I think is 10 months though this may now change once I plug in the new pricing given European players pay more than US and UK players. The way I will try and get this number is by assuming the % breakdown of the player base that pays for 1,3,6 and 12 months in 2008 to 2012 where we have actual numbers and so hopefully that just leaves the average play length of the player base to find.<br /><br />I also would struggle to get a view as to who uses plex to extend playtime on carebears vs PVPers.<br /><br />on your point on revenue growth - we already have the 6 months to 30 June 2013 which shows revenues from games (so mostly Eve Online) grew from $30.7m in the 6 months to June 2012, to $34.3m in the 6 months to June 2013. My revenue for the full 2013 may be a little high but hopefully not too much.<br /><br />For 2014, at this stage I am assuming that only subscribers grow by 10% - and that was a pure guess at this stage!<br />Crodahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-82022774794685467192013-11-09T16:48:22.885+00:002013-11-09T16:48:22.885+00:00Are you factoring that CCP will not get the full s...Are you factoring that CCP will not get the full subscription cost when they bought through 3rd parties like Amazon, Steam, Somer, etc.?<br /><br />Also, i think you would have to know the % breakdown of when subscribers leave to get any meaning from the avg length of stay. What % leaves after 1, 3, 12, ++ months to understand which direction CCP will go. Rubicon seems to be the opposite of protecting carebears. Also, what % of carebears pay for their accounts through converting isk to plex versus using cash to subscribe. Are PvP players more valuable to CCP since they spend their isk replacing ships instead of buying plex to play for free? <br /><br />Why do you think revenue will grow so much this year and next? I think Test brought in a lot of new blood, but I wonder if a large % left the game when they were demolished. <br /><br />p.s. I love your attempt to understand the financials to make predictions. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-25008286277055030792013-11-08T03:22:28.911+00:002013-11-08T03:22:28.911+00:00Now that is interesting - thank you for that. I w...Now that is interesting - thank you for that. I will plug that in and see what changes come up. I know CCP disclose US and European revenues - don't think they disclose the UK revenues which look like they are aligned with the US$ prices. So I will have to make some more assumptions but I think you have just found me an uplift in revenues and so perhaps evidence that either players stay for longer than 10 months on average or take longer than 1 month plans.<br />Crodahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-38082484737446866512013-11-07T14:27:28.459+00:002013-11-07T14:27:28.459+00:00All your calculations are in dollars, EU players p...All your calculations are in dollars, EU players pay 30% more due to exchange rates. So a 20 dollar plex is the same price as a 3 month euro subsciption and your 1 month dollar players could be 3 month euro players.Raziel Walkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02545370350482232205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-9181379319958785462013-11-07T03:15:50.221+00:002013-11-07T03:15:50.221+00:00Your first point is well made and is something I i...Your first point is well made and is something I intend to explore on a later post. There is presumably a balance between how much ISK a Plex gets which therefore entices players to pay real money for Plex vs the affordability of Plex for people like me who spend that ISK on it to extend game time.<br /><br />In part - I suspect CCP would want higher ISK cost of Plex to entice real money purchases and CCP can control this by buying the Plex in game for ISK themselves. Those that use Plex to extend game time would merely need to grind more ISK<br /><br />Your second point - yes, I am assuming new players quit because of he steep learn curve, high sec ganking, scamming etc - and I am therefore making the assumption that CCP will add more features to protect new players from all this.<br />Crodahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-11810818930274310732013-11-07T00:32:49.172+00:002013-11-07T00:32:49.172+00:00It seems like you've made some hidden assumpti...It seems like you've made some hidden assumptions which end up dictating your conclusions.<br /><br />"Hence, subscriber growth is not the only focus - the more CCP can do to keep new players and convert players to starting new accounts with Plex then the better it is for CCP."<br /><br />Every Plex'd account requires two things: 1. Someone grinding ISK ingame and spending that ISK on PLEX, to pay for his account; and 2. Someone paying real money on PLEX to give him ISK for ingame items.<br /><br />Obviously, both halves of this equation can be divided incrementally among many people. Now, the question is, is this demand/supply equation more elastic for demand, or for supply? Put another way, is this balance more limited by the supply of PLEX, or the demand for PLEX? You seem to be making a disguised assumption that the best thing for CCP to do, to manipulate this balance, is to entice people to start alts that they will pay for with PLEX. However, I would postulate that the reverse is more likely, that convincing people to pay real money for PLEX is the more difficult task. Absent substantial evidence, that's all we have here, competing hypotheses waiting to be tested.<br /><br />And second; ". . . . . . that would lead me to conclude that we should expect a lot more effort by CCP to keep new players, including enhanced "carebear" protection."<br /><br />Again, another hidden assumption. You've assumed here that enhanced "carebear" protection will increase new player retention. There's not even enough here to analyze, it's just a mysterious assumption, and I could just as well assume the opposite.Kurthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08064568916740238502noreply@blogger.com