tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post9136358169667669431..comments2024-03-22T08:28:53.318+00:00Comments on marketsforISK: Bond Repayment and a Recapitalisation of CCP?Crodahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-88108303616258327932015-04-11T01:28:37.651+01:002015-04-11T01:28:37.651+01:00I agree with much of what you say though i would s...I agree with much of what you say though i would suggest that it is Eve Online that is doing well, not CCP as a whole for the reasons you point out.<br /><br />I agree with your point on the debt which is why i think new shareholder capital will be injected.<br /><br />I suspect Eve Online can show low growth and strong cash flows for a while yet. I agree with you that 2014 will not look good for Eve and CCP.<br /><br />In all, i believe CCP has enough with Eve to finance another project (Valkyrie).<br /><br />If not, then CCP may as well sell Eve Online to another games developer.<br />Crodahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-85511768399482120072015-04-10T21:18:21.441+01:002015-04-10T21:18:21.441+01:00I find your analysis to be interesting; however, I...I find your analysis to be interesting; however, I think your personal view/desire has somewhat tainted your objectivity. You seem to work pretty hard to prove that CCP is still doing well, although the actual numbers say otherwise.<br /><br />2014 was a particularly bad year for CCP and the financials will undoubtedly show a strong decline. CCP has already written down much of its losses on WoD and DUST, so they won't be able to hide much more behind creative accounting.<br /><br />Essentially, they don't have much cash reserve. They have debt, for which they really don't have a plan to pay off. They have declining revenues and increasing costs - which is normal with an aging product which needs continued updates to remain viable. EVE Online is effectively in maintenance mode - CCP simply cannot afford to do Jesus-type expansions any more - and subscriber numbers are dropping. And, they have no serious prospects for new revenue streams to replace the losses or attract new investment.<br /><br />I think that CCP and EVE Online has had a good run, though. Far better than most MMOs. The best they can do at this point is to continue to downsize the company, drop both DUST and Valkyrie completely, and to do as much as they can creatively do to keep EVE Online fresh, with as few resources as possible, to milk it for as long at it lasts. Properly managed, EVE Online could easily run another 5-10 years. Getting further in debt, however, to fund pie-in-the-sky projects, will only hasten the end of both CCP and EVE Online.larrybhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18395545824457097643noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-23935755342647383032015-04-06T05:11:38.878+01:002015-04-06T05:11:38.878+01:00How did you manage to type dust517 three times in ...How did you manage to type dust517 three times in the previous comment? Must have been a big bottle of wine :PAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14576309136975709489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-41166400659862646872015-04-06T04:16:43.564+01:002015-04-06T04:16:43.564+01:00Cheers, happy Easter! It's interesting to see...Cheers, happy Easter! It's interesting to see CCP rise & fall & then rise again over the last few years. It's an exciting time for the EVE universe I think.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14215335030319076026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-24195499935761677302015-04-06T04:15:28.637+01:002015-04-06T04:15:28.637+01:00yep - i mean Dust514. Good spot.
that is what a ...yep - i mean Dust514. Good spot.<br /><br />that is what a bottle of wine does to me . . . . . . Crodahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-11476287091816603802015-04-06T04:13:35.751+01:002015-04-06T04:13:35.751+01:00Very interesting. Yeah if they truly are profitabl...Very interesting. Yeah if they truly are profitable, they can continue iterating on Dust moving towards porting to PC when there agreements with Sony have run out. I'm not sure on the details with that though.<br /><br />I'm curious though, you're calling Dust 517 instead of Dust 514. Is it listed as Dust517 in CCP financial statements?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14215335030319076026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-70888104736859290402015-04-06T04:08:26.420+01:002015-04-06T04:08:26.420+01:00i don't know how profitable Dust517 is - i sus...i don't know how profitable Dust517 is - i suspect we may get an idea one the 2014 Accounts are released, though more likely when the H1 2015 Accounts are released.<br /><br />To make the statement Dust517 is profitable, i would believe they would have to take into account game improvements and maintenance, as well as any amortisation of past R&D (most of which is written off anyway).<br /><br />In summary, i suspect Dust517 is running at a level CCP is happy with and could either be sold or kept on the current path.<br />Crodahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-46635750306933958212015-04-06T03:58:11.692+01:002015-04-06T03:58:11.692+01:00CCP has recently said that Dust514 is now a profit...CCP has recently said that Dust514 is now a profitable game for them. Do we know how much they are profitable, or if they're not counting costs for game improvements and maintenance? Would this make any difference?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14215335030319076026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-85994481810587719752015-04-06T01:10:34.756+01:002015-04-06T01:10:34.756+01:00i don't think CCP is going bust - merely rearr...i don't think CCP is going bust - merely rearranging itself after a couple of tough ventures. Eve Online is an amazingly profitable business - i suspect CCP needs a little help in the short term.Crodahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-77014387397281751032015-04-06T01:09:18.663+01:002015-04-06T01:09:18.663+01:00thanks. I don't honestly know how you would g...thanks. I don't honestly know how you would go about purchasing the bonds. There is a decent chance that the new debt is not listed (held by a bank). The current Convertable Bonds are listed here (http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/bonds/iceland/microsite?Instrument=ICE95410) though these are the ones that are about to be recalled.<br />Crodahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16620994327943613623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-7221962436369927372015-04-06T00:49:47.618+01:002015-04-06T00:49:47.618+01:00Obligatory rumor that CCP is either going public o...Obligatory rumor that CCP is either going public or bust :) Thanks for the analysis, enjoyed it. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1597676555600759067.post-86729157220283635772015-04-06T00:01:53.419+01:002015-04-06T00:01:53.419+01:00Very cool analysis, I enjoyed reading it... I'...Very cool analysis, I enjoyed reading it... I've never heard much about the actual company and it's financial information.<br /><br />How would I be able to purchase any future bonds issued by CCP?Abbadon21https://www.blogger.com/profile/12971780039827497466noreply@blogger.com