Translate this page

Some beautiful music to read the blog with

Sunday, 10 November 2013

A week away - not too much of a dent

I came back from a trip that kept me away from Eve for 5 nights and my wealth had increased by 1.6bn ISK (=183m ISK per day) to 32.3bn ISK.  I considered that a good result.

Good sales came from across my alts in Dodixie and Hek (my Regional traders) and my manufacturing alt sitting in Jita.

My Manufacturing Alt is expanding its operation.  It can now have 11 items in production at any one time and it is selling 26 items for good profit margins.  As an experiment I am looking into selling into new Regions to see how that goes.  I am now training this alt up on Space Ship command.  I suspect in time this will be the alt I use to transport items around where I am unable to use third parties.

My Research Alt in Jita, which currently acts as my buyer for my traders in Dodixie and Hek, is moving towards the end game in getting up to speed to start Invention.  To be honest, I could have gone down this route 3 weeks ago but RL is taking up too much time.  This alt is now learning Mechanics 5 and will then learn CPU Management to level 5 (the old Electronics skill) before seeking a place to call home to do Invention.  I expect to do that towards the end of November or early December.  And of course I have purchased another Plex to finance this account for a further 30 days.

In readiness for that day I am starting a new alt - given I will be away for several periods during November it could take a while for me event to complete the starter missions!

Whilst I have found some more expensive items to sell via by traders in Dodixie and Hek my biggest issue remains that I have almost 9bn uninvested ISK in my wallet which is acting as a drag to my growth in wealth.

I only spend 30 to 45 minutes per weekday on Eve - hence I am looking for new items to sell or projects that can use up this ISK for a good return with minimal effort on my behalf.

Wednesday, 6 November 2013

CCP Financials - Eve Online (ex China) Revenues

This post continues my series looking at the CCP financial position.  The published CCP Accounts are on this page, and my forecasts are on this page.

In this post, I am looking at the revenues of Eve Online (ex China).

. . . . . my game related conclusion would be that would lead me to conclude that we should expect a lot more effort by CCP to keep new players, including enhanced "carebear" protection.

Any analysis of CCP today will always start with the revenues of Eve Online (ex China).  In 2012 Eve Online (ex China) accounted for 98% of the total revenues of CCP.  For now, Eve Online is the business of CCP.

The revenues of Eve Online is somewhat more complicated that subscribers multiplied by price paid.  Indeed, the main drivers of revenues that I have identified are:

1. the number of subscribers per year: it is not clear what CCP discloses but I suspect in their presentations they disclose the number of subscribers during the year (or the number of subscribers present at the year-end).  And for good measure I had to try and read these of a graph.

2. the average number of months each subscriber stays for: whilst many players have been subscribing for many years I suspect there are many many more who subscribe for 1 or 3 months and then give up.  Therefore, the average number of months each subscriber stays for during a year is important.  Its all very well having 355,000 subscribers but if 100,000 of them are only around for 1 month then that is 100,000 new subscribers that have to be found the following month to keep numbers up.  I have not found any indication from CCP how this looks - so I had to analyse it myself.

3. the price for a 1, 3, 6, 12 month subscription: there are different price points depending on the length of the subscription.  These price points are known.

4. the proportion of 1, 3, 6, 12 month subscriptions purchased by the subscribers: follows on from the above point, we need to determine what proportion of the subscribers take each length of subscription.  I have not found any indication from CCP how this looks - so I had to analyse it myself.

5. the mix of revenues that are Plex sales: Plex sales are in part additional revenues to CCP but they also perhaps replace subscriptions.  The ultimate end buyer of a Plex may start a new account that would not otherwise have been started (so no loss to CCP) or may replace their subscription by buying Plex (like I do) in which case CCP is only slightly better off (by Plex price less Subscription pri
ce).  CCP has disclosed that 20 - 25% of revenues are from Plex in recent times.  Plex sales started in November 2008.

So, starting with the Plex - it does seem the easiest: given the sales started in 2008 I assumed that 10% of revenues in 2008 came from Plex sales (bumper sales in November and December 2008), in 2009 I assumed that Plex sales accounted for 15% of revenues, in 2010 22% of revenues, in 2011 23% of revenues and then in 2012 24% of revenues - as shown in the table below.  I don't have anyway of knowing this for sure.  CCP tells us that Plex accounts for 20 to 25% of revenues.

Eve Online - ex China
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sales mix
Subscriptions 90% 85% 78% 77% 76%
Plex sales 10% 15% 22% 23% 24%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Plex sales 4,166,889 7,767,364 12,470,378 14,293,372 15,062,430
change 86.4% 60.5% 14.6% 5.4%
Price per Plex 19.95 19.95 19.95 19.95 19.95
Number of Plex sold 208,867 389,342 625,082 716,460 755,009
Number per month 17,406 32,445 52,090 59,705 62,917
Additional "accounts" 11% 16% 17% 18%
However, I can do some sense checks.  If I assume the price for a Plex is $19.95 (I know, they can be discounted) then using my assumptions of sales from Plex I can determine the number of Plex sold in 2008 to 2012 and so get a feel for the number per month which would give an indication of the additional accounts that Plex finances (assumes all Plex goes to new accounts in that year - in reality there will be buffer stock and other uses).  In 2010 it looks like 52,090 additional accounts per month = 16% additional accounts, in 2011 59,705 additional accounts = 17% additional accounts and in 2012 62,917 additional accounts = 18% additional accounts.  That seems to look sensible.


and now lets look at the subscription revenues: the table below shows my thinking with my full discussion below it.  The chart below also adds in the Plex sales from above.  Worth remembering, we know the Eve Online revenues for 2008 to 2012, all we are trying to do is break down how the above drivers fit in so we can then extrapolate forwards to 2013 and 2014.


Eve Online - ex China
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Number of subscribers 225,000 300,000 320,000 355,000 355,000
change 28.6% 33.3% 6.7% 10.9% 0.0%
average length per subscriber (mths) 12.0 11.0 10.4 10.1 10.1
         
Proportion of payment plans taken
Price per subscription for 1 mth 70% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Price per subscription for 3 mths 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Price per subscription for 6 mths 0% 10% 10% 10% 10%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Price per month per plan $
Price per subscription for 1 mth 14.95 14.95 14.95 14.95 14.95
Price per subscription for 3 mths 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36
Price per subscription for 6 mths 9.55 9.55 9.55 9.55 9.55
Average subscription 13.87 13.33 13.33 13.33 13.33
Subscription revenues 37,502,004 44,015,060 44,213,158 47,851,724 47,697,693
change 17.4% 0.5% 8.2% -0.3%
Sales mix
Subscriptions 90% 85% 78% 77% 76%
Plex sales 10% 15% 22% 23% 24%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Plex sales 4,166,889 7,767,364 12,470,378 14,293,372 15,062,430
change 86.4% 60.5% 14.6% 5.4%
Price per Plex 19.95 19.95 19.95 19.95 19.95
Number of Plex sold 208,867 389,342 625,082 716,460 755,009
Number per month 17,406 32,445 52,090 59,705 62,917
Additional "accounts" 11% 16% 17% 18%
Total Revenues 41,668,893 51,782,424 56,683,536 62,145,096 62,760,123
change 24.3% 9.5% 9.6% 1.0%
Number of subscribers - we know from the chart issued by CCP, assuming I am reading it correctly!

Again, assuming my Plex sales mixes are correct then there are three key steps to get from Subscriber numbers to revenues: average length of a subscriber x proportion of subscribers going for 1 / 3 / 6 month payment plans x the price of the 1 / 3 / 6 month payment plans.  I have assumed that too small a proportion to matter goes for 12 month plans.

Of course, I don't know the answer to this and I cant find anywhere that CCP has disclosed this so I had to make assumptions.  Furthermore, I assumed the introduction of Plex has altered the proportion of payment plans taken up.  I have assumed that players that were long standing but paid monthly were more likely to buy Plex (they probably gather more ISK in game and so have the most to benefit from using Plex to extend their game time) and so the proportion of payment plans for 1 month fell after 2008.

In all, in 2008 I assumed 70% of subscribers paid monthly and 30% 3 monthly - and the average length of a subscriber was 12 months.  And then in 2009 onwards I assumed this moved to 60% monthly plans, 30% 3 monthly and 10% 6 monthly but that the average length of stay fell to 11 months in 2009, trending down to 10 months by 2012 reflecting the very steep learning curve as players give up.

Worth noting that given the subscriber numbers in 2008 and the price points I really struggled to make the revenues numbers add up - either prices were higher, or Plex was higher priced, or more Plex sold in 2008 than I thought.  I was surprised at how high I had to make the proportion of 1 month payment plans.

I have also not taken into account in price discounts given in pre-expansion periods etc.

Hence, by the end of 2012 I am assuming:

- that the average number of months a subscriber stays for is 10
- that 60% pay monthly / 30% 3 monthly / 10% 6 monthly
- that the monthly price for 1 month is $14.95, 3 months  $11.36 and 6 months $9.55
- that the proportion of revenues that are Plex sales costing $19.95 each is 76%

Therefore, to determine 2013 and 2014 I need to assess the likely subscriber growth and how the above changes.

We already know the 6 month numbers for 2013 and using these I therefore assume subscribers grow by 22% to 433,100 in 2013 followed by 10% growth in 2014 to 476,000.  I assume the average length of stay of a subscriber stays at 10 months as CCP makes efforts to lessen the steep learning curve and more attempts to protect new players.  I assume the pricing points and proportion of 1 / 3 / 6 monthly sales does not change.  And I assume Plex sales are 25% in both 2013 and 2014.  That, therefore, leads to the Eve Online revenues below which then feed into my forecasts on this page.

Eve Online - ex China
2011 2012 2013F 2014F
Number of subscribers 355,000 355,000 433,100 476,410
change 10.9% 0.0% 22.0% 10.0%
average length per subscriber (mths) 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1
       
mix
Price per subscription for 1 mth 60% 60% 60% 60%
Price per subscription for 3 mths 30% 30% 30% 30%
Price per subscription for 6 mths 10% 10% 10% 10%
100% 100% 100% 100%
Price per month
Price per subscription for 1 mth 14.95 14.95 14.95 14.95
Price per subscription for 3 mths 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36
Price per subscription for 6 mths 9.55 9.55 9.55 9.55
Average subscription 13.33 13.33 13.33 13.33
Subscription revenues 47,851,724 47,697,693 58,322,675 64,154,943
change 8.2% -0.3% 22.3% 10.0%
Sales mix
Subscriptions 77% 76% 75% 75%
Plex sales 23% 24% 25% 25%
100% 100% 100% 100%
Plex sales 14,293,372 15,062,430 19,440,892 21,384,981
change 14.6% 5.4% 29.1% 10.0%
Price per Plex 19.95 19.95 19.95 19.95
Number of Plex sold 716,460 755,009 974,481 1,071,929
Number per month 59,705 62,917 81,207 89,327
Additional "accounts" 17% 18% 19% 19%
Total Revenues 62,145,096 62,760,123 77,763,567 85,539,924
change 9.6% 1.0% 23.9% 10.0%

 


In all, I expect revenues for Eve Online to grow by 23.9% in 2014 to $77.8m and then by 10.0% in 2014 to $85.5m.

The main driver may look like subscriber growth.  For every additional 1% of subscribers the revenues rise by 0.8% (=$637k).

However, if CCP managed to increase the average subscription length by half a month to 10.6 months then revenues would rise by 5.0% (=$3.8m).

Indeed, if CCP managed to increase the proportion of Plex sales from 25% to 26% of revenues then total revenues would rise by 1.4% (=$1.1m).

Hence, subscriber growth is not the only focus - the more CCP can do to keep new players and convert players to starting new accounts with Plex then the better it is for CCP.

Keeping everyone for half a month longer is better than adding an additional 4,000 new subscribers.

. . . . . . that would lead me to conclude that we should expect a lot more effort by CCP to keep new players, including enhanced "carebear" protection.

Saturday, 2 November 2013

October Update

I was very surprised how well this month went given i was away for half of it.

As ever, I only spend 30 to 45 minutes online during week days - assuming I am not away on business.

Wealth increased by 7.3bn ISK to 30.6bn ISK.  Which is an average of 236m ISK per day.

I am now buying a Plex a month to finance my second account and from January i will be buying two Plex per month as my Main account will need financing.

I have been fortunate enough that some people have been using the Buddy Programme link to the right >>>> which has financed my Main account to the end of the year.

As ever, i sit with too much surplus ISK which needs to be invested.  Current surplus is 8.6bn ISK – it is dead money.


Dodixie trader: Life remains good for this trader.  Items for sale are sitting at a steady level of 11.3bn ISK whilst items for purchase have risen to 1.6bn ISK compared to 0.9bn ISK in the last month – this alt is slowly entering the station trading market.  The alt is currently using 115 of the 141 trading slots.  I have found some new higher priced items to sell which still make the 20% margin - the plan is to continue to find a few of these a month.

I suspect this trader makes 120m ISK profit per day at least when i am not away from the game, and i suspect this can still rise from here as i increase my “station trading” and find higher priced items to “Regional trade”.

It pays 0.80% broker fees to post an order and a further 0.90% sales tax on a successful sale.  No longer training.

There are no medium term goals for this alt – just sticking to business as usual whilst increasing its station trading income.


Hek trader: Life is slow here though no slower than last month.  I mean to look into what else this trader can sell but October was otherwise busy.  The main items it sells are skillbooks.  It is using 79 of the 129 trading slots.

I suspect this trader operates 30% of the level of the Dodixie trader.  Even if i log in every day i don’t always sell enough items in Hek to justify a replenishment haul from Jita every day.

Pays 0.80% broker fees to post an order and a further 0.90% sales tax on a successful sale.  No longer training.


The pre-xmas plan is to find new income sources for this trader.


Manufacturing alt: This alt is gathering momentum.  During the month it made sales of 6.3bn ISK and profits of 2.1bn ISK, which compares to the 1.0bn ISK profits last month.

I now have a list of 33 items i focus on to sell, currently selling 23 of them as the other items have too low a profitability.  I started selling Industrial ships but there is no profit in these for now -  i don’t focus on these anymore.

It currently has 3.4bn ISK of sell orders listed compared to 0.5bn at the end of last month.

I now own 39 blueprints worth just over 1bn ISK, most of which have already comfortably paid for themselves.

I have moved my manufacturing alt into Lonetrek.  Close to Jita but there are plenty of manufacturing slots available.  The downside is that i can’t update or see my sell orders in Jita from the Lonetrek region given Jita is in a different region.

At the moment, i believe my manufacturing alt makes 70m ISK profits per day = 2.1bn ISK per month.  At this stage, i am considering that a success given that i knew nothing about manufacturing 3 months ago.  Furthermore, i can honestly say that one alt which takes up 15 minutes per day will be able to fully finance both my accounts and leave plenty of spare change for a “slap up meal at Mrs Miggins pie shop” . . . . an old Blackadder quote!

If i had to have only one alt to finance my playtime, i now suspect i would go down the manufacturing route – it is takes up very little time and is quite fun.
During November i plan to add more items onto the list of items to sell and see how far i can push the profits this alt can make.

On skill training – being away on business alot has meant i have neglected a medium term plan for this alt and just left the skill training ticking over.  When i come back from business next week this alt will have completed Advanced Mass Production Level 5 thus allowing it use manufacturing slots at once.

My pre-Christmas goal for this alt is to determine its carear path which will require me to do a lot of reading up on manufacturing!


Rent a Corporation Office?
On a side note, i could rent a Corporation Office in my Lonetrek station for 3m ISK per month compared to Jita of 2.9bn ISK, Dodixie of 141m ISK and Hek of 132m ISK.  Tempting – but it would be a vanity item for now.

Mental note to self that i really need to look into Corporations. At present i use my Corporation to hold spare cash, do all the purchasing and issue the hauling contracts.  For now, it serves to streamline my business process.  It does, though, look like a lot of fun to be had with all the corporation mechanics available.


The new account:  I started a new account in September which will cost me a plex a month to maintain, i.e. 580m ISK per month at todays prices.

I am training this character up in Research skills.  Whilst it is doing this it is my buyer in Jita – so he buys the items for the traders to sell in Dodixie and Hek.  As ever, the items are hauled there by Pushx Industries.

Similarly to my manufacturing alt, the medium term plan is ticking over given i am away alot on business.  Currently training Advanced Laboratory Operation Level 5 which will allow me to run 11 Laboratory slots at once.

My pre-Christmas goals for this alt is also to determine its career path which will require me to do a lot of reading up on Research and also for this alt to start contributing to my wealth.


November will see me away from the game again for almost half of it - so it may end up being a slow month.


Current Wealth:




















Expected business purchases in the next 30 days
Plex 580,000,000 ISK





I don't count assets I use in the course of my business such as ships, fittings etc nor do I add back any expenses such as skills purchased etc.  The wealth I disclose is made up of items that are ISK or are in the process of being converted to ISK.

* I take a 20% provision against the items I am selling.  Eve calculates wealth by adding up the value of the sell orders hence it is possible to increase your wealth by buying an item for 100m ISK and putting a sell order for 120m ISK (in this case your wealth would increase by 20m ISK).  For me, I want my wealth to be calculated at cost until i finally hold it as ISK.  I know that the value of my sell orders will likely fall over time as I update my orders downwards as competition reduces their prices before my items are sold.  Hence the 20% provision is my best guess as to what cost is or at least the maximum reduction I would need to make to my sell orders as a whole before they are sold.