Trick Buy Orders or borderline scamming or more?

Anyone who puts Sell Orders on the market will see this.

The below image shows it well.  I am putting up a Sell Order in Dodixie to sell a couple of Small Consortium Vorton Projectors.  The last Sale price in the history was 394,900,000.  There is an existing Buy order there for 39,490,000.

Immediately you can see the game here.  The Buyer is not putting up a low priced order for low priced sake.  The Buyer is trying to trick any sellers into misreading the Buy price into thinking it is 394,900,000.

As you can see, i spotted it and did not fall for it.

Clearly, it is a trick Buy order and outright Scam.  Some might say an exploit.

It is also annoying.  The Sell Price in my Sell window defaults to the Buy Order price.  If no Buy Order is there then it would default to one tick above the last Sale Price i had.

So i need to input the correct price which adds to the time taken to post Orders.

But, it is all part of the rough and tumble of Eve.

And for those players that make a success of it - there is now Highsec Buyback that will pay 90% of Jita Buy price anywhere in Eve highsec NPC stations.  So no longer does the player need to transport their ill gotten gains to Jita to sell, the ISK will come to them immediately.

Eve Excel add-in

I am beta testing the excel add-in and so far i like what i see.

This will really allow players to more readily use data to get more involved in Industry and keep track of your Characters and Corporation more generally.  All of this could be done before but now much less coding / excel knowledge is required.

There is no NDA - and plenty of market commentators are showing examples on their streams.

The best way to think about it for now is that it gives the same data you get into the Eve Portal app.  Though, i can see how it can be used for much more.

The data comes straight into a spreadsheet - there is a limit on how much data can come in at any one time before more is added.  But not too long between additions.

Works on Excel, the free Excel (only web based), on MAC and PC.

You need to add characters by logging in - but that is all very intuitive.

Example excel formulas

=EVEONLINE.CHARACTER_ORDERS(<char_id>) - will pull into excel a column of all Buy and Sell orders from one of your characters.

=EVEONLINE.CHARACTER_ORDERS(<char_id>).price will show the price that the Buy or Sell order is at.

So far, pretty basic stuff and very intuitive.

It can get tricky though:

=MIN(FILTER(EVEONLINE.MARKET_ORDERS(10000002, <item_id>),EVEONLINE.MARKET_ORDERS(10000002, <item_id>).transaction_type="SELL").price is what is currently required to show the lowest Sell Order price for an item in Jita (this is the formula i use to value assets i hold).

What have i done so far

So far, i have built a spreadsheet that tells me my wealth: Adds up all my Sell and Buy orders across my 14 Traders (8 Omega alts and 6 alpha alts); adds up the value of my assets; adds in the value of the ISK held by the alts and the ISK held by my corporation.

The thing it won't do for now is capture any assets delivered by courier contract into a Corporation Delivery Hanger and it can't capture the Plex in the Plex Wallet.  That may change.

Also, some things could be ironed out, for example the excel formula to find the lowest Sell Price or Highest Buy price in a station is a bit intensive.  I am sure they will be.

If you have a big spreadsheet like i do that cane take a minute or so to update, best to put your formulas to "manual" and so the data updates when you want it to rather than every time you come out of a cell.

Current videos on the add-in

Oz has one: First look: Eve Online Excel Add-in Beta

Talking in Stations has one (bias to the Industrial side of life, using Blueprints): Eve x Excel for Dummies

Output

For what it is worth, my wealth as i write this post is now 916bn isk, so an increase of 48bn vs end of February.  Maybe i can make March a 70bn increase in wealth month.  Lets see.

Month end update - February 2023

As at the end of February 2023 my wealth is 868bn ISK after paying 8.2bn to upgrade to Omega for another 30 days for four accounts.  My Wealth increased by 57bn in February.

Technically, my wealth is 1.053 trillion ISK but i always take a 20% provision against Sell Orders to be conservative.  Hence i quote 868bn.

A pleasing month into what is normally a slower month after winter.

The target of 1 trillion ISK is coming into sight.  I still reckon i can get there by the end of June.

Quick Summary

Life definitely slowed down from the strong months of November, December and January.

Overall sales were down 18% to 371bn.  Nothing to be ashamed of, fourth best month ever.

Of my main Trading Hubs, only Hek was up vs January.

My new Omega account that covers Arnon and Alentene justified itself in its first month with Arnon producing a respectable 16bn of sales.

What sold well?  Implants and ship equipment.  Blueprints remain on the decline - whoever was selling Blueprints in Jita has woken up and is back again.  So i am effectively out of that market.

My item profit margin market fell back out of the 28-30% range to 26.3% (28.2% in January).  But this remains above my 25% margin target - so i am happy here.

In the last 12 months i have made sales of 3.6 trillion isk and profits (after everything including Plex) of 567bn isk having spent 68bn on Plex.

The overall aim of what i do is to increase my wealth by at least 10bn per month.  So far i have beaten that in 23 / 30 months i have been running this venture and indeed in all of the last 19 months.

Plex and Omega deals

We had another deal where the Plex required to buy Omega was reduced across all time ranges (1 month, 3, 6, 12 and 24).

For now, i go for the 3 month Omega deals given i think they give me the best bang for my buck.

Therefore, since September 2022 i have used deals to Omega my accounts.  

I bought a 3 month Omega with Plex back in September / October and did the same again in February.

The way i think about this is that i view buying a 3 month Omega as buying an asset that is expensed over three months.  So, in my wealth i carry an "Omega" asset that goes to zero by May.

Activity

I continue to come on once a day to update Sell orders and replace items sold.  About 30-45 minutes.  Getting closer to 45 minutes these days.

I am experimenting with Manufacturing (ramping up slowly) and Planetary Interaction (winding this up for now).

Over 95% of my sales and profits still come from Regional Trading.  So far 3% comes from Manufacturing and 1% from Planetary Interaction - more on those two in coming posts.

Target 1bn profits per day after all taxes and plex costs

I have now achieved this aim for the last eight months.  Was not expecting to.  As i have witnessed in 2020 and 2021, the final quarter of the year is the strongest and 2022 was no different.  Lets see how the first half of 2023 goes.  So far January and February have been kind to me for this target.

I could point out that for the last four months i have made over 2bn isk per day but i know that won't last as we get into the quieter months over the summer.

Target daily sales required to achieve 1bn profits per day

In summary, i generally need to make 7.5bn sales per day assuming my item margin is 25%

As the cost of plex rises then my daily sales requirement also rises.

On the current taxation levels to make 30bn ISK per month i would need to cover:

 - Plex costs of 3 x 500 x 4.7m = 7.1bn

 - Courier costs 2% of sales (i.e. = purchase cost + collateral)

 - Broker Listing fees 1.5% of sales

 - Broker re-listing fees 0.3% of sales (lets assume all sales changed at least five times per month)

 - Transaction Taxes 3.6% of sales

That all works out at 225bn monthly sales will generate profits after all costs including Plex of 30bn isk. = 7.5bn daily sales.

Bottom line is that assuming i make my 25% profit margins then each 1bn of sales creates profits of 164m and these go towards buying Plex for the Omega accounts and whatever is left is reinvested in the business.

Looking at some sensitivity analysis

- if my item margins were 28% instead of 25% then i need only make 192bn isk of sales (or 6.4bn per day)

- if Plex rose from 4.7m to 5.0m then then i need to make 228bn isk of sales (or 7.6bn per day)

Review of the February aims

I had been realistic in my Aims after what was a strong December and January.

1) Plex the four omega accounts - aim number one all the time - achieved

2) Hold sales in Dodixie to down 40% - achieved, sales fell 35%

3) Hold sales in Amarr to down 40% - achieved, sales fell 5%

4) Hold sales in Rens to down 40% - achieved, sales fell 18%

5) Hold sales in Hek to down 40% - achieved, sales rose 15%

6) Hold sales in Sobaseki to down 40% - failed, sales fell 44%

7) Hold sales in Tush-Murkon Prime to down 40% - achieved, sales rose 80%

8) Ramp up Arnon and Alentene - achieved and ongoing

9) Hold the investment and profits in Manufacturing - achieved, sales and profits rose

10) Continue to investigate Planetary Interaction - achieved, and deciding to wind this up for now.

Overall, this was a strong month in meeting almost all the aims.

Started a fourth Omega Account

I bit the bullet and started a fourth Omega account in January with trading Alts in Arnon and Alentene.  Very early days and i was not really sure about it.  So far, so good.

I am stocking up each alt by effectively reinvesting the profits from my business into these locations.

As expected, there is next to no competition much like Tash-Murkon and Sobaseki.  So the sales may be low but the time requirement is very low.  On some days, if i don't make any sales at one of these locations then i don't bother checking the prices - i know that there will be no competition.  This is as close to "passive income" i think i will get.

Reminder of my Current Business.

For now 95% of what i do is inter-regional trading - buying from Sell Orders in Jita to sell elsewhere.  The rest is made up from Manufacturing and Planetary Interaction.

For Trading i focus on slow moving but high margin items.  That keeps me away from fierce competition and i only need to sell an item once every 10 days to make good income.  In other words, i don't really care if an item sells once every 10 or 20 days, if have many hundreds of items for sales across Eve and so each days a few items will sell and that generates all my income.

To put this in perspective.  I had Sell Orders of 906bn up at the start of February which generate sales of 371bn.  In other words, i sold between 1% to 2% of everything i had for sale every day.  The is slow and i like it.  Not for me the cut and thrust of high volume low margin world.  Slow and easy for me.

For this side of my business, lets call it Merchanting or inter-regional trading, i want to generate profits of 10bn ISK per month after paying to Plex my account.  Given i now have eight Omega alts in Amarr, Dodixie, Rens, Hek, Sobaseki, Tash-Murkon Arnon and Alentene i am hoping that this 10bn aim will be easily achieved.

My business model evolves over time.  As my wealth increases i focus on higher value items.  Therefore, i try also to stick to the rule of making a minimum of 100m profit per item sold.  i.e. if i buy an item for 70m then i aim to sell it for at least 170m isk.  This makes sure i don't waste my time on making low absolute profits and so preserves the 45 minute rule.

My main business is operated with four omega accounts (paid for with plex) with twelve alts.

The main Trading alts sit in Dodixie, Amarr, Rens and Hek.  I have also omega alts in the new Trading locations of Sobaseki (in Lonetrek), Tash-Murkon Prime (in Tash-Murkon), Arnon (in Essence) and Alentene (in Verge Vendor).

The other four alts sit in Jita and buys from Sell Orders, has these items couriered to the alts in Dodixie / Amarr and Rens / Hek and Sobaseki / Tash-Murkon Pime and Arnon / Alentene who then put them onto these markets for sale.

The Jita alts also serve to sell items that i can no longer sell in my trading locations  Sort of clearance sales.

I also started in December 2021 to place alpha alts in other regions to see how it goes.  I just need two of them to demonstrate that they can combine to justify an Omega account.  Also, they need to take up very little of my time.  So far the Sobesaki / Tash-Murkon alts and Arnon / Alentene made the grade and were upgraded in two accounts.

The other regions so far are: Placid; Citadel and Khanid.  And i am in an NPC station in Delve and Outer Ring.  I have started in Venal.

I am struggling to make the Low Sec locations work.

Jita

I had a good time making sales in Jita since September.  I feel these times are coming to an end now.  I used to make sales of 8bn per month.  By November that peaked at 100bn and in January had fallen to 75bn.  I estimate that accounted for 15% of my profits.  February was slower still with sales of £39bn.

I was going to come out of Jita but looking at these numbers in the cold light of day makes me reverse that decision.  It is harder work but worth it.

What has caused sales to fall from 100bn to 39bn is that whoever was selling higher priced blueprints in Jita was missing-in-action and only came back towards the end of December.  Therefore, i was making hay for the last three months of 2022.

I intend to ramp up my manufacturing operating slowly over time and this will then be sold out of Jita.

I also do station trading in Jita (that is - put Buy Orders up in Jita and then when those Buy Orders are executed i then put the item up for Sale in Jita at a higher price).  I stick to the slow moving items again.

I had started a while ago putting cheap Buy Orders up in the Trading locations and having the items shipped to Jita to be sold - but that was too much work so it is being wound down.

I don't know what the Station Trading the shipping items in Jita did for me - but i suspect it was good money.

Manufacturing

I am now eight months into my Manufacturing project.  It remains slow and i need to up my game (i know, i said that before).

In February i made 12bn of sales generating an item profit of 3.3bn and so after taxes a profit of 2.7bn.

So at least in February i made my manufacturing target of being able to cover the cost of an Omega account.

Planetary Interaction

I am still experimenting for now, getting to understand it all.

I have abandoned the idea of extracting from planets in High Sec - i just could not extract enough to make it work.  At best with three alts operating six planets each i could make 1bn isk profit per month for the cost of an extra 45 minutes every three days.

I also experimented with factory planets only.  So buying the raw materials, shipping them to the planet and then taking away the finished product.  That only really worked if i bought the materials from outside of Jita in my main Trading locations.

It was hard work getting the raw materials to my factory planets - mainly because there is not enough on sale around the universe to keep the factory planets going at full capacity.

Also, i noticed that if i merely shipped the raw materials from my Trading Hubs to Jita and then put the raw materials up for sale then i would make just as good profits and quicker.

I had noticed that the Import and Export taxes for Planetary Interaction really hit profits.

But, even that was proving to be hard work and time consuming.

So for now, i have stopped it all.

Other High Sec Trading Locations

I don't want to spend all my time on Eve doing Regional Trading (buying from one region, mainly Jita, to sell to another) but i do want to see if i can find really low competition but stable revenue streams of trading.

The current alpha account regions so far are: Placid; Citadel and Khanid.  And i am in an NPC station in Delve, Outer Ring and now Venal.

My alts in Arnon and Alentene were upgraded to Omega during January - but for the purposes of the below, lets assume they were still Alpha.  It will take me a few months to get them fully up to speed in terms of maxing out the relevant Trade skills/

The alpha trading locations made combined sales of 5.3bn in February which is a decline from the 7.9bn made in January.

I have been scaling back.  I don't replace the sales made anymore.

The trial has been done, i feel i know what Locations are best and which don't work.

Delve

I want to experiment with selling in null/low Sec.  Hence, i have found an NPC station in Delve and started experimenting with items to sell.

It is not going well - sometimes threatens to improve but then fall back again.

As with my other alpha accounts i am letting it wither away on the vine.

I am rethinking how to make low/null sec work.

Plex

I am aim to store up to 6 months of Omega for each of the Omega accounts which would mean buying 12000 Plex (= 6 x 4 x 500).

I now have 4500 in stock - so no change during February.  I don't plan on buying any Plex in the near term given my surplus isk is going into stocking up on the Arnon and Alentene trading locations.

That said, CCP are changing their attitude to Omega prices and there is a permanent sale on that gives a discount to the Plex required for longer periods of Omega purchases.

I went through this in this post and came to the conclusion that the 3 month deal which is 3 months Omega for 1200 plex (vs the normal 1500) was a great deal, so i went for it for my four Omega accounts.

A minor accounting point (again)

Similar to back in September 2022, i have to think how i account for buying three months of Omega for each Omega account (4 accounts).  I repeated this in December.

Hence, in the December deal and in February i spent 26bn and 18bn respectively buying 3 month Omega deals for Plex.

The way i account for this is to hold the entire amount as wealth and reduce this "asset" by a month at a  time.

So, the 26bn spent in December was reduced by one month in January and another month in February leaving one more month to go.  And the 18bn spent on another 3 month deal is still there in full and will start being reduced in March.

The alternative accounting treatment would be to count the 26bn and 18bn as costs in the month they were expensed which means December and February would look week but January, March and April stronger.

It all adds up to the same number just the timing of recognising the cost is different.

Analysis of Trading Profits

In total i made 371bn ISK of sales in February which made me item profits of 98bn ISK.

(item profit is the simply difference between sales done vs costs spent buying products, so before fees and taxes.  Because i don't yet invest in items other than Plex i don't make any allowance for items still in stock - in part because i don't track the cost per item spent).

Overall, sales fell by 18% in February which reflects declines in almost all trading locations; and down overall in the Alpha accounts.

Amarr took the top slot away from Dodixie with 93bn sales, Hek moved up to third above Rens.

The item profits of 98bn was an item margin of 26.3% (98/371) vs my target of 25%.  This is another good month for margins.

From this I then need to take a whole series of costs off before i get to my Business profits (and notice how they are more related to Sales rather than costs):

Courier Fees: i aim to pay 2% of sales value to the Courier = 2% x 371= 7.4bn

Sales tax cost me 13.7bn ISk (=3.69% of sales) - the Dodixie, Amarr, Rens, Hek Sobaseki, Tash-Murkon and Jita characters are level 5 in Accounting (=sales tax of 3.6%); Alentene and Arnon are training up, and of course all the alpha alt accounts are only Level 1 (=sales tax of 8%).

Broker Fees costs me 10.7bn (=2.9% of sales).  Now, i can break this down into the initial listing fee of 1.5% (because i am Level 5 Broker Relations on all Omega characters and lets to make the sums easier and include all the alpha alts) and therefore the rest is the cost of changing the price which is 0.30% a shot (i may have that 0.30% completely wrong!).

So, Listing Fee = 1.5% x 371= 5.6bn and so the Relisting Fee = 10.7-5.6 = 5.1bn which is 1.4% of sales.  That shows that i do change prices quite often, bias to Amarr and now Jita.

This takes my 'Business Profits' to 65bn ISK for February vs 83bn in January.  This is what 30-40 minutes a day in Februady gave me.

So, the post-tax margin is 17.6% (65/371) and so i achieved the 15% target.

The omega charge was then 8.2bn (see above in Plex section)

That, therefore, is the road map from 371bn sales to 57bn increase in wealth.

Items i am selling in Dodixie, Amarr, Rens, Hek, Sobaseki, Tash-Murkon, Arnon and Alentene

No Change from January.

I sell blueprints, skill books, implants and ship equipment.

Blueprints retreated in February having made a steady come back.

Implants are doing well and tend to be the most competitive - i am slowly expanding into more types and moving up the ISK value curve.  I now keep to implants costing over 100m ISK and up to 2bn ISK.  They don't sell well but when they do i tend to get a whole family sold at a time.  Again, that's how i like it.  A billion or so of investment can take 30 days to sell.  I am seeing more instances of whole family's of implants being sold at once.

Mining equipment is slowing as more traders enter this market but is still making decent profits.  I suspect this is one of my lowest sales item group now.

Skill books are now my lowest income generator for me but there are still a few nice sellers.

Ship Equipment is doing well.

Rigidly sticking to the 25% margin target.  Courier fees and taxes now take 9% of that to bring me to a theoretical 16%.

Courier Contracts

Each night, i get home from work and determine what i need to sell in all the locations.

The time is taken changing prices were necessary (especially Amarr given it is competitive) and then figuring out what to sell with the ISK made from the prior 24 hours sales.

I have a list of items that feature regularly and i add to this list as time goes by.  So is a case of checking Jita prices vs current location prices.

It takes a minute to check all the alt accounts.

To look up prices in Eve I am using Eve Tycoon which seems to have more of the latest items in its market browser.  I used to use evemarketer but i just got used to Eve Tycoon.

Each night i courier about 5 to 15bn ISK of items from Jita.  Used to be 2-10bn but things are better these days.  The total cargo volume is 10-250m3 per shipment.  So small but valuable items.  But this allows the couriers to use small, fast ships with much less chance of being ganked.  So there is always someone willing to pick up the contract quickly.

I pay a generous 1.5 to 2.0% of collateral as fees.  I am more interested in getting my items onto the market quickly than penny pinching on distribution costs.

Outlook

March will have ten very conservative aims - I expect March to continue the slowdown seen in February.  Hence, the aim will be:

1) Plex the four omega accounts - aim number one all the time

2) Hold sales in Dodixie to down 20%

3) Hold sales in Amarr to down 20%

4) Hold sales in Rens to down 20%

5) Hold sales in Hek to down 20%

6) Hold sales in Sobaseki to down 42%

7) Hold sales in Tush-Murkon Prime to down 20%

8) Ramp up Arnon and Alentene

9) Hold the investment and profits in Manufacturing

 

The daily sales in February averaged 13.3bn.

Current wealth is 868bn ISK made up from:

• Plex held as an investment 22bn ISK
• Items in hanger for sale 7bn ISK
• Items in hanger for use in business 11bn ISK
• Omega brought forward 27bn ISK
• Buy orders on the market 13bn ISK
• items for sale 929bn ISK

• less a 20% provision 186bn ISK*

• ISK in wallet 45bn ISK

When i add up my wealth, I don't count assets I use in the course of my business such as ships, fittings etc nor do I add back any expenses such as skills purchased etc.  The wealth I disclose is made up of items that are ISK or are in the process of being converted to ISK or are used to generate isk that can be readily resold back onto the market.  Any ships or skills or fittings etc i buy are counted as expenses in that month.  The only exception to this rule is Blueprint Originals i use for manufacturing.  They are held at cost.

* I take a 20% provision against the items I am selling.  Eve calculates wealth by adding up the value of the sell orders hence it is possible to increase your wealth by buying an item for 100m ISK and putting a sell order for 120m ISK (in this case your wealth would increase by 20m ISK).  For me, I want my wealth to be calculated at cost.  I know that the value of my sell orders will likely fall over time as I update my orders downwards as competition reduces their prices before my items are sold.  Hence the 20% provision is my best guess as to what the maximum reduction I would need to make to my sell orders as a whole before they are sold.  In an ideal world I would value my sell orders at the value which I bought the items for.

The current 3 month Omega deal (36% discount) is fantastic

As at the time of writing there is another Omega sale going on that is much better than the normal sale.  Firstly, the one month Omega is going for 400 Plex rather than the normal 500 Plex.

The question is - should we go for it.

The summary of the below is the 3 and 6 months look good.  The 12 and 24 months less so.  In fact the 24 month deal is very poor.

It is all a question of what is the return your business makes.

To not go for the 3 month deal if you can afford it means your business needs to make a monthly return of more than 72%.

What are the discounts on offer?

The table below summarises them all and adds some analysis.

It is a busy table but lets focus on the 6 month Omega to explain what is going on.  The cost of Plex does not alter any of the outcomes.

So, looking at the 6 month line:

The normal cost is 14.7bn (=500 plex x 6 months x 4.9m per plex = 3000 Plex x 4.7m)

CCP gives a 44% discount meaning instead of costing 3000 Plex it costs 1680 Plex.  Therefore, the actual cost is 8.2bn isk and so saving 6.5bn isk.  Over 6 months therefore this saving is 1.1bn isk per month.

The return technically made is 6.5 / 8.2 = 79%.

By Buying this 6 month deal you effectively save on 2.6 months (you pay the full price for 3.4 months and get 6 months).

So far, this all looks really appealing.

But we need to think of the alternative

Sticking to the 6 months, the alternative is that we take the 8.2bn isk and instead of buying the 6 month Omega we invest it in our business and pay the normal monthly Omega.

The question there is what monthly return must our business make to justify this course of action rather than taking the deal.

In other words, for the 6 month calculation, we take the 8.2bn isk we would have used to buy the deal but instead invest it into the business, reduce it by 2.5bn to buy a 1 month Omega, invest the rest for a month making a return of X%.  Then reduce that enlarged amount by another 2.5bn to buy the next months Omega and invest what's left to make that return of X% and so on for 6 months.

As it happens for this 6 month period, and it does not matter what the market price of Plex is (assuming it does not change), to make it more attractive to buy the Omega each month then your monthly return (i.e. X%) must be at least 31.7%.

If you can't make 31.7% then buying the 6 month Omega deal is better.

And that is what the final column on the table shows.

It shows the monthly return required to do better than buying the deal.

The longer time deals are poor

The 3 month deal is the best.  You would need to make a monthly return of 71.9% to mean that buying the 1 month Omega each time is a better idea.

The 24 month deal is the worst - you only need to make a monthly return of 9.0% to mean that investing the 25.9bn isk into your business and paying each month for a 1 month Omega is a better idea.

What does it mean for me?

I currently make a monthly return of 10-11% on my business (i.e. for every 100bn invested i make 10-11bn).

Therefore, assuming i knew i was going to play Eve for the next 6 months then i should buy the 6 month Omega deal rather than pay each month for the monthly Omega.

Example of the 6 month calculation

The below table shows how i worked out the required 31.7% return:

Start at time 0 and invest 8.2bn isk.  buy a 1 month omega for 2.5bn leaves 5.8bn, make the 31.7% return increases that to 7.6bn.  Start of the second month reduce it by 2.5bn to 5.2bn for the 1 month Omega, increase that 5.2bn by 31.7% to 6.8bn and so on.  By the start of the month 6 you are left with 2.5bn to buy that final months Omega.

Pearl Abyss Fourth Quarter results

Pearl Abyss, the owner of CCP Games which develops and operates Eve Online had its Q4 results today.

The presentation is https://irsvc.teletogether.com/pearlabyss/pdf/pearlabyss2022Q4_eng.pdf

(Q4 = fourth Quarter = October – December 2022).

There is a full transcript in English of the earnings call with management at the bottom of this post.

Overall – the news centers around Black Dessert continuing to decline (a core revenue generator for the group) and Crimson Desert (their anticipated new game) expecting to launch in December 2023.  Eve Online barely gets mentioned.

The summary of the below is that I think for Eve Online (which includes mobile) Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021 revenues declined 4.3% in Korean Won but in constant currency was likely only down 1.3%; Q4 2022 vs Q3 2022 revenues declined 9.3% in Korean Won but in constant currency was likely down by 5.3%.

No details on Eve profitability given.

Eve Online

In terms of Eve Online – it was barely mentioned.

Eve (online and mobile) Q4 revenues were down 4% vs Q4 2021 and down 9% vs Q3 2022.

The chart below shows the quarterly revenues of Eve (and Black Desert) going back to Q4 2021.

 

Firstly, it is in Korean Won so there is currency movements to think about.  The US Dollar has been strong over the 12 months to September 2022 and then gave back some of the strength during Q4.

In Q4 2021 there were around 1188 Korean Won to the US Dollar vs Q4 2022 1265 – so US Dollar revenues will benefit the Eve revenues by 6.5%.

On the other hand, in Q4 2021 there were around 1365 Korean Won to the Euro vs Q4 2022 1362 – so Euro revenues will be neutral.

In other words, the currency movements should be favourable to Eve numbers when reporting in Korean Won.   (warning – I hate talking about currency so I could have got this the wrong way round!).

Let assume therefore that currency benefitted Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021 by around 3%.

For Q3 2022, if others want to do the work, the average US Dollar rate was 1353 and the average Euro rate was 1400.  So Q4 on Q3 2022 the USD weakened by 6.5% and the Euro weakened by 2.8%.  So, lets assume there was a 4% currency headwind for Q4 vs Q3 2022.

In other words, the Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021 decline is worse than published by 3% given currency has relatively helped Q4 where as the decline Q4 2022 vs Q3 2022 is less than stated by around 4%.

What does this mean?  Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021 revenues declined 4.3% in Korean Won but in constant currency was likely only down 1.3%; Q4 2022 vs Q3 2022 revenues declined 9.3% in Korean Won but in constant currency was likely down by 5.3%.

The Rest

Black Desert continues to see falling revenues across PC, mobile and console.  This was weaker than expected.

Crimson Desert is still due to be launched in the second half of 2023, likely December.  This, I think, is going to be very important for Pearl Abyss – if it fails or delayed further then the business will need to take action on costs.

Pearl Abyss is ramping up its marketing costs which is odd given there are no new games being launched right now unless they are preparing for the Crimson Desert launch.

All in all, the company is basically running close to breakeven given the declining revenues and higher costs.

There was also a large write down in their investment business (Pearl Abyss Capital) which was established in 2019 as a new technology business finance company specializing in various ways of investing in new technology businesses and venture companies.  They are interested in various industries as well as games.  As far as I can tell, this has nothing to do with CCP / Eve online.  What on earth Pearl Abyss, a games developer, is doing with an Investment business is beyond me.  Pearl Abyss Capital (pacapital.co.kr)

One more thing

If you go onto the Pearl Abyss website, it does not mention Eve Online as one of its games.

Maybe nothing to it.

 

 

 

Pearl Abyss Earnings Call Transcript - translated

Operator:

(Foreign Language) Good morning and good evening. First of all, thank you all for joining this conference call. And now, we will begin the conference call of the fiscal year 2022 Fourth Quarter Earnings Results by Pearl Abyss. This conference call will start with a presentation followed by a divisional Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now, we shall commence the presentation on the fiscal year 2022 fourth quarter earnings result by Pearl Abyss. (Foreign Language)

Unidentified Speaker, :

Greetings. First of all, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to the analysts and investors in and out of Korea for taking part in the 2022 Q4 and full year Pearl Abyss earnings presentation despite your busy schedules. (Foreign Language)

Unidentified Speaker, :

Before elaborating on today's business results, I'll like to add for year understanding regarding the following: The financial and business results contained in today's earnings release have been prepared for the convenience of investors and is subject to change depending on the final closing of our book. In addition, the accuracy and completeness of the financial and business results in the earnings results material are not guaranteed, and the company is not obliged to give updates of the accounts given after this date. So please take these factors into consideration.

(Foreign Language)

Unidentified Speaker, :

We have here with us in the earnings presentation today Pearl Abyss' CEO, Kyeong-In Jung; CBO, Kim Gyeong Man; and CFO, Cho Seok Woo. We will first hear the business performance presentation highlights from CFO, Cho Seok Woo and then engage in a Q&A session.

(Foreign Language)

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

Greetings. I'm Pearl Abyss' CFO, Cho Seok Woo. Thank you once again for taking part in our company's earnings conference call despite your busy schedules.

(Foreign Language)

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

First, I'll cover 2022 major business activities and achievements. In 2022, while strengthening the existing IP life cycle, we focus on developing new IP and concentrated on procuring our future growth engines. Thanks to these efforts. Despite the difficulties caused by the COVID endemic in 2022, Black Desert and E sales were able to maintain the previous year's level. In addition, as the Crimson Desert show remarkable development achievements since last summer, we have been conducting demos and marketing for B2Bs and have been getting ready for the launch. Next, I would like to talk about Q4 major business activities and achievements. Black Desert, celebrating the end of the year with Q4, further strengthen user communication. In particular, we wanted to meet more global users not just limited to Korean users and held various events in major service countries. Beginning with the offline user event in Taiwan in November, in December, we held a Calpheon Ball in LA and held a Voice of Adventurers event in Amsterdam and Tokyo and expanded user skinship.

In addition at the Ball, we have disclosed the recently updated twin classes, Maegu and Woosa and disclosed future plans, such as the plan Land of Morning Light. In particular, thanks to the Woosa effect, which was launched December. New and returning online users significantly increased by 330% and 430% respectively compared to the previous month and has led to formidable results. In addition to this, with Abyss One, the Magnus update, we were able to lower the entry barrier for new users and improve the playing environment. For Console, we updated the Woosa class and we were able to confirm a rebound in user indicators. For Mobile, we disclosed Great desert Shahzad, which adjusted the difficulty of the desert and introduced a new class Maegu. In particular, after the Maegu update, the December user index improved in all regions, and we could confirm that user trends also improved. EVE online through the Uprising expansion pack introduced a new type of warfare. With an interesting storyline added to a new combat system, we worked hard to give users a unique experience.

In addition, an event for North American users was held in Las Vegas, and we had a valuable time sharing opinions with users, such as sharing future roadmaps. Black Desert and EVE with steady communication with users and fresh content was able to continue great performance in 2022. Going forward, we will continue to listen to the stories of our users and provide fun and fresh games.

(Foreign Language)

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

Next, I will cover our 2022 fiscal year annual and Q4 results. 2022 operating revenue posted KRW386 billion and operating profit posted KRW16.6 billion, and both decreased 4.4% and 61.4% respectively y-o-y. And net profit posted minus KRW41.1 billion and turned to loss. Q4 operating revenue posted KRW103.2 billion, up 6.1% q-o-q and operating profit posted KRW3.6 billion, down 70% q-o-q.

Net profit posted minus KRW100.3 billion. And due to FX-related loss and intangible asset impairment losses, it turned to a loss q-o-q. (Foreign Language)

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

Next, I will cover the operating revenue in more detail. First, I will explain the operating revenue by major IP. The operating revenue generated from Black Desert IP for the quarter was KRW71.2 billion and decreased q-o-q. EVE IP operating revenue posted KRW17.6 billion, down 9.3% q-o-q. In the case of operating revenue by region, Korea recorded 19%, Asia 25%, and North America Europe 56%. In the case of operating revenue by platform, 77% PC, 16% mobile, and 7% console and maintained the level of the previous quarter. (Foreign Language)

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

Next, I'll cover operating expenses. Q4 operating expenses posted KRW99.6 billion, up 17 -- up 16.7% q-o-q. For labor costs, we reported KRW42.9 billion, up 4.9% q-o-q. For your reference, as of the end of Q4, there is 1,452 headcount. There are 905 developers, which is 62% of the total headcount. In case of commissions, it increased by 19.8% q-o-q, posting KRW19.9 billion. In case of advertising expenses with a new update and large-scale user events held in December, it increased 35.2% q-o-q and posted KRW12.7 billion.

(Foreign Language)

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

Last but not least, I would like to cover 2023 Q1 major highlights. (Foreign Language)

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

We have been showcasing steady live service of Black Desert and EVE, and we will do our best to prepare for a new IP. Black Desert in Q1 will also introduce a variety of new content. Recently, in January, Black Desert released twin class Maegu, following the twin class Woosa, introduced last month. As a class of Korean inspiration, we are seeing continued positive responses from domestic and overseas users.

In addition, we will soon update a new zone, Land of Morning Light with a motive from the Joseon Dynasty. We plan to showcase various contents based on various and legends that have been passed down in Korea. Mobile recently launched a new class Woosa with spectacular skills and action. Positive user reviews are continuing. And in addition, we plan to further increase our contact points with global users in Q1. In North America and Europe, we will hold Meet & Greet event to celebrate the 7th anniversary of service, and we plan to deepen our relationship with our users.

IVE celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. And we are establishing a long-term roadmap aiming for service of more than 30 years. In particular, so that users can enjoy the game more comfortably following the addition of Spanish language in the last quarter, we plan to add a simplified Chinese in Q1. In addition, by providing training programs and packages for new users, we plan to create an environment where new users can also settle into the game. I will now explain about the progress of our new IP.

We are focusing on developing Crimson Desert with a goal of completing development in the second half of the year. In addition, we are preparing for various types of marketing according to the progress of our development. So once the schedule is confirmed, we will let you know. A lot of time has passed since we showed footage of Crimson Desert at G-Star in 2019 and TGA in 2020. As many people have been waiting for a long time, in order to repay you with the best quality possible, the Crimson Desert team is doing their best until the end of development.

During the remaining time, we will do our best to improve the quality of development and thoroughly make preparations to have a successful launch. To be a better company, all come -- all employees from the CEO, are doing their best. We ask for your continued interest and support. Thank you very much. (Foreign Language)

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

With this, we will conclude the Pearl Abyss 2022 full year and Q4 earnings release, and start the Q&A session.

Questions And Answers

Operator:

(Question And Answer)

Operator:

Now Q&A session will begin. (Operator Instructions) The first question will be provided by Jim-gu Kim [ph] from QM Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Analyst:

Thank you very much for the opportunity. I have two questions. My first question is about when will you be ready to show us more in-game footage of Crimson Desert and DokeV and can you tell us about the progress of DokeV so far? My second question is about your business related to AI and can you tell us about any status or progress and do you think that you can actually apply that to your engine to have more synergy or do you think that it can reduce your times for development or have development efficiencies and how can it be applied to your business strategies? Thank you.

Heo, Jin-young, Chief Executive Officer & Director:

Thank you for your questions. I would like to update on the current progress for Crimson Desert and DokeV as you asked. Currently, for Crimson Desert, we have the goal of completing the development by second half of this year. So we are completely committed to development and currently we are -- we are in the stage of doing different work and tests in order to have a more completeness of the game.

In addition, we are actually consulting with many partners for pre-marketing preparation, and currently, we are pondering upon which would be the best direction for the company that can benefit the company out of the many proposals. Related to this, we will first make an internal decision. And after we have disclosure of more in-game footage, then we will have more strengthened marketing activities.

In the case of DokeV through the Blackspace Engine, we are currently getting -- sharing of all the resources and environment that is being developer for a Crimson Desert. So our development efficiency is heightening. Also, our DokeV development team is doing their best to show a better developed version of the game. However, because we are going to commit ourselves to marketing of Crimson Desert this year, I would like for your kind understanding that regarding when we will be able to disclose more in-game footage of DokeV. Well, it will be very hard to give you a fixed answer at this point. And I know that there is very heightened interest in our AI and that is why you probably asked the question. As you probably know, with the development of recent technologies, we are seeing more games developed using AI, and we are seeing more of the service areas expanding and our company is also very interested in this trend as well. In our case, although we have not been focusing on training and development of large-scale models such as chat GPT, we have been interested in generative models that have been showing great success and we have been engaging in R&D in this area so far.

We have been utilizing AI technology for dialogue between the characters within the game or to help communication between the users that use different languages. In addition, we have been actually integrating AI technology to our and on unique engine so that we can provide higher quality games more rapidly to more users, which is the goal and have been increasing our development efficiency.

For example, we have our engine atmosphere processing technology and what they do is not individually process the different atmospheric phenomenon one by one. But they can actually at one time process all the different items that are needed to express the atmosphere such as sky, sun, mist and rain, and they can express it at once. In addition, we have automation of geometry and physics technology. So when there are large scale placements of entities in the game, you don't have to place individual entities, but you can simply have large-scale configuration by just setting an area.

Likewise, through our unique engine, we have had development automation in many areas and these are helping us very rapidly develop the game with high quality graphics.

Unidentified Speaker, :

It was our CEO Heo, Jin-young who answered your questions. We will take the next question.

Operator:

The following question will be presented by Stanley Yang from JPMorgan. Please, go ahead with your question.

Stanley Yang:

I have two questions about Crimson Desert. Can you tell us what is the biggest difference between the trailer that you showed us for gameplay two years ago to the current version? And do you have any changes to the business model since then. Second question is about the development delay of Crimson Desert, but despite the delay, it seems that management still has very high expectations for Crimson Desert and you are anticipating it to be a global hit. So can you tell us more specifically about why do you think Crimson Desert will be a hit globally?

Heo, Jin-young, Chief Executive Officer & Director:

Well, to tell you what is different from the trailer that we showed you two years ago to our current version, well, to put it simply, we are now enabling everything that you see in the trailer to be actually playable and to have very high quality while doing so. And during the two years, we have seen a breathtaking development in graphics technology. So we have been working very hard to actually implement that high quality graphics technology to our version as well.

In addition, we are currently developing it as a single play game. So we are doing our best to make it very natural for NPCs, and for using AI, we want to make everything in the game seem very natural and complete. So that is what we are currently focusing our efforts on. And although, we are currently developing Crimson Desert as a single player game, we are also considering it at as a multiplayer game in the future. Accordingly, in the beginning of the launch, our current business model or the business model in the beginning actually saw the profits occurring from the sale of packages. But going forward, if we develop it as a multiplayer game going forward, then we are expecting additional revenues going forward.

Crimson Desert has a very strong narrative, spectacular visual effects. And with a very wide and vast open world, we are currently developing it as a AAA game. Since we are taking on a challenge of the traditional console market which has very fierce competition, we are repeating on research and upgrade for a very long amount of time, because we want to have the highest level of quality possible and to provide the best uniqueness, so that is why we have been making many efforts.

Although it has been taking more time than we had expected in the process, because we are making the first challenge in the major console market, we are thoroughly making preparations so that we can have results that can be rivaled with the major titles in the market. In order to meet the expectations and the anticipation of our users, we believe that this is indeed a process that is essential. So during the remaining amount of time, we will do our best to have the game more complete and perfect it so that we can bring about great results.

Unidentified Speaker, :

It was our CEO Heo, Jin-young who answered the question. It seems like that currently there are no other questions in the queue. Yes, we will take the next question. There is another question coming in.

Operator:

The following question will be presented by (inaudible) from Citi Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Analyst:

Thank you very much for the opportunity. I have a few questions related to expenses. In Q4, although, you did not have launching of new titles, I see your marketing expenses have gone up. So can you tell us about what you think will happen for these expenses, compared to your revenues in marketing for 2023? And I know that for your new title, you have been considering a publisher as a partner. So if you indeed partner up with a publisher, then will this lead to more our marketing expenses or not? Last question is about -- two more questions. You seemed to have more additional expenses, other expenses that have gone up in Q4. What is the reason for that? And can you give us your guidance for labor cost for 2023? Thank you.

Seok Woo Cho, Chief Financial Officer:

First, I will answer your question about marketing expenses. Q4 marketing expenses posted KRW12.7 billion and went up 35% Q-o-Q. This was because in Korea as well as in U.S., Taiwan and in other regions, we had user events and there was an increase in advertising expenses due to large-scale updates. Most of all, we had most of these events that were happening at the end of the year. So we will see how this adds to our revenues until the end of February because it tends to continue until then. And that is why we saw the percentage of marketing expenses compared to our revenues that was actually a bigger than usual in Q4.

For our Live Services, we have been maintaining an appropriate level of marketing proportion versus our revenues -- expected revenues, so we will do our best to have more efficient and effective marketing going forward. In the case on new titles, well, even if we're considering partnering up with new partners, it doesn't mean that we are going to use partners for our publishing. That is why for 2023, because we are also anticipating new IP marketing. We expect to see related expenses increase.

I would like to answer your question about other expenses. In Q4 other expenses posted KRW17.7 billion and increased 54% Q-o-Q. Most of this divided from the evaluation losses about the investment assets of Pearl Abyss capital. Pearl Abyss is an investment company, so at the end of the year, there are assessments about their invested assets. We had an increase in the other expenses, because in this case, for the gains on valuation, they are included in operating profit. On the other hand, the evaluation losses are included as additional expenses in the operational expenses part. So that is why we have those.

Lastly, I would like to answer your question about labor expenses in 2023. As of end of Q4, we had 1,452 headcount at our company. And like other companies, because of the situation this year, we have planned very conservatively have the labor management this year.

Unidentified Speaker, :

It was our CFO, Cho Seok Woo, who answered your questions. We will take the next question.

Operator:

The following will be presented by Tong Jun Kim [ph] from CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.

Analyst:

Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. First regarding your mentioning having global partner, the possibility of having global partner. We know that we are console of the games, well, you need to pay more than 30% for fees to platform companies. So if you have a partner on top of that, then how do you think it will affect you in your profit? So can you explain more about what kind of partners you are or partnership that you are thinking of? And my second question is about the competitive landscape. During the past two years, we have many delays in the game launches. So it seems that in 2023, we're going to have all many major titles that will be launched. So in this type of competitive landscape, can you tell us about what is the management's view on how your game will play out in this fierce competition? And my third question is about the commercial viability of your company because we do know that you have a genuine great game playing capability, graphics and quality. But it seems that you have seen a lot of commercial delays. So I think the visibility of games such as Crimson Desert, DokeV and even Plan 8 have gone down. So can you tell us about how you're going to go forward and improving your commercial capabilities so that you can show more of yourselves to investors who are thinking of investing in you for the mid to long-term?

Heo, Jin-young, Chief Executive Officer & Director:

For your questions, I would like to answer them subsequently. You asked us the first question about the possibility of global partnerships and how it will affect us in our profits or revenues. For Crimson Desert, we are considering simultaneous launching of PC and console. And for console, it is true that we have been considering the possibility of having a global partnership for -- but for the direction of the partnership, as we had just aforementioned, it doesn't just limit itself to publishing, we also have market exclusivity deals or other types of partnerships that we are also considering, and you have voiced some concerns about profitability at with these types of partnerships.

But we are of course considering on what will be most beneficial to our company in terms of profits as well when we consider the possibility of partners. So I understand that investors may have some concerns, but please be reassured that we are, of course, thinking about having partnerships, not just for the marketing success, but also for the profit of the company as well.

You also asked the second question about the competitive landscape with major titles. So as we had mentioned in our plans going forward for our games, well, in developing our new titles, we don't have our short-term goal of just having short term developing of the game and targeting the market for the short term. For a Crimson Desert, we had given you notice that we want to take a sufficient time to develop so that we can enjoy the fruits of the game like Black Desert, which has been maintaining 10 to 20 years of the game popularity even after it has been launched for a long term and not there just thinking of the short-term.

And we have been developing our game based on our top-notch quality graphics and technology, fully knowing the fact that we are going to have a competition with major titles, but we will do our best to make the best game ever. So that we can win the battle with these types of new major titles. Third question was about some concerns about the long time that it's taking for us to develop our new title and the fact that the launching has been delayed. For Pearl Abyss, we are not a company that just makes a large number of games, we are a company that has to go off developing a game and maintaining services for a long time. That is why we believe that the commercial success of our games that we launch will also depend on how long we can maintain the game service after it launches.

And although it's taking a lot of time to -- for us to develop the game and to launch it, we are going to do our best so that we can service the game for a long time, so that we can have commercial success as well as.

Unidentified Speaker, :

It was our CEO Heo, Jin-young who answered your question. It seems that there are no other queues in the line.

With this, we will conclude the 2022 full-year and Q4 earnings release presentation and Q&A session. Thank you for your participation.