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Sunday, 7 March 2021

Month end update - February 2021

At the end of my sixth full month, my wealth is 46.62bn ISK after paying 1.3bn to upgrade Omega for another 30 days.  My wealth increased by 8.4bn in February.

Disappointing really.  the first two weeks of February were like the final two weeks of January - really slow.  Things picked up in the next two weeks but not enough to get me over the 10bn mark that i aim for.

In fact, month was worse the November, December and January.  Poor show.  Tough markets.  Not competitive, just quiet.



Review of the February aims

1) Plex the account - done

2) Increase sales in Dodixie - missed

3) Increase sales in Amarr - missed

4) Expand further into Invention - missed

5) Investigate reducing 'costs of sale' - missed



Onwards to the next aim

This time in Eve, i don't want to purely focus on trading by having characters in each trading hub.  I want to experience as many of the isk making ventures in Eve that i reasonably can.

So, the aim with trading is to get to 10bn monthly income after buying the Plex to extend the Omega account.

That was achieved in December and again in January.  Not done in February.  That said, it looks like my inter-regional trading activities from Dodixie and Amarr do generate around 10bn per month after plex costs.

Not bad for 45 minutes a day.



Invention

More posts to come but i have decided to try my hand at invention - i decided in December but to be honest i got nowhere in February.

I need to look into it more to work out where to start.  I like the look of it: low click rate; looks like an inefficient market; so if it works out it would really be a low time consumption source of income - not quite passive, but close.

Lets see how it goes.


Reminder of my Current Business.

I operate with one account with three alts.

The main alt is a seller in Dodixie and the other alt is a seller in Amarr, two of the main trade hubs in Eve Online.

The third alt sits in Jita and buys from Sell Orders, has these items couriered to the alts in Dodixie and Amarr who then put them onto these markets for sale.

I focus on slow moving but high margin items.

For this side of my business, lets call it Merchanting or inter-regional trading, i want to generate income of 10bn isk per month after paying to Plex my account.


Analysis of Trading Profits

Explaining the journey of sales of 55.5bn to the increase in wealth of 8.4bn . . . . . 

In all, i made sales of 55.5bn isk (vs 70.6bn in January) which created income of 9.7bn (1.3bn was used to buy Plex, 8.4bn was invested back into the market or was sitting as isk in my wallet) vs 11.6bn in January.

Hence, sales fell 21% overall and are right back to November levels.  Looks like there was a strong Christmas effect this year.  My December sales were 78bn, so the 55bn in February is pretty quiet.

Dodixie sales were 38.3bn (vs 42.4bn in January) whilst Amarr sales were 17.2bn (vs 28.2bn in December).

So, Dodixie sales fell 10% whilst Amarr sales well 39%.  I do find Amarr very competitive but so far i believe it is better than Hek or Rens.  I am tempted to test that thesis out one day.


Purchases of items from Jita cost 39.8bn isk (vs 50.1bn in January), so my item margin was 28.3% ((55.6-39.8)/55.5) vs 29.0% in January.  Respectably above the 25% item margin target but down on the elevated 32.2% in November.

So, no problem on profitability but clearly a problem on sales.  Perhaps i am charging too much but i more got a sense that there was no demand at all rather than buyers backing off due to price.

I then need to take a whole series of costs off before i get to my Business profits:

Courier Fees: i aim to pay 2% of sales value to the Courier = 2% x 55.5 = 1.1bn

Sales tax cost me 1.5bn ISk (=2.7% of sales) - this is reducing as i am training both the characters to be level 5 in Accounting

Broker Fees costs me 3.4bn (=6.1% of sales).  Now, i can break this down into the initial listing fee of 3.78% (because i am Level 4 Broker Relations on both characters) and therefore the rest is the cost of changing the price which is 1.14% a shot.

So, i know the listing fee = 3.78% x 55.5 = 2.1bn and therefore the price change fee is 1.1bn (3.4 - 2.1). This 2.7bn is 2.4% of sales.  This is lower than January and reflects the quieter February for me and all my competitors.

This takes my 'Business Profits' to 9.7bn isk for February vs 11.6bn in January.  This is what 45 minutes a day in February gave me.

So, the post-tax margin is 28.0% - 2.0% - 2.7% - 3.8% - 2.4% = 17.5% (=9.7/55.5).

Fees and Taxes take 10.8% off my margins (2.0+2.7+3.8+2.4).  That is a big hit.  I can take action to reduce this which i may investigate in the medium term (needless to say, i did not get round to investigating this in January or February).

17.5% is respectable, i would normally aim to get a respectable 13 to 15%.  i can improve on it if i train Accounting and Broker Relations  / Advanced Broker Relations to level 5 . . . . . which i am now doing across the two characters . . . . .and which i have completed for the Dodixie character and am in progress with on the Amarr character.

And then from those 'Business Profits' i buy Plex for 1.3bn isk to extend the Omega by 30 days.

That, therefore, is the roadmap from making 70.6bn of sales and seeing my wealth increase by 8.4bn as a result.


Items i am selling in Dodixie and Amarr

I sell blueprints, skill books, implants and ship equipment.  I am starting to ramp up on implants and selling less blueprints.

I am trying to focus on items of higher value to keep the number of items for sale down and so make life easier.

But given the market were slow i still buy from Jita for 10m to sell for 35m.  These low items are easy money but don't really move the dials.

For blueprints and skill books i focus on items that are not seeded in Dodixie (or Amarr for the Amarr seller).  It is a nice source of sales, varying from 100m to a few billion on a really good day - players will pay up to avoid travelling to Jita to save isk to buy that blueprint or skillbook.  This has slowed down more recently with competitors willing to take very slim margins.

Implants are a new focus, and i am making good sales where especially with the ones costing over 300m isk.  The competition is lower.

Ship equipment makes up the rest, typically it is the same items each time though i find i make a few sales then need to let that item rest and the price reset upwards before i revisit.

Rigidly sticking to the 25% margin target.  I have to given courier fees and taxes take a whopping 12% of that to leave me with 13%.  This is the one line i can't really cross.  If i took the margin down to 20% then after costs i am looking at 8% profits which leaves no room to change prices too often!

The items i sell in Dodixie and Amarr are often very similar but not always.  They remain two distinct markets with Amarr being the most competitive.


Dodixie Seller character

This remains my main character and is the biggest seller.

I have now trained all the relevant skills to Level 5.

The skills relevant to Trading that i have are:

Accounting: Level 5; means i am charged 2.25% of the sales price on completed sale vs the normal 5%

Broker Relations: Level 5; means i am charged 3.49% to list an item for sale

Advanced Broker Relations: Level 5; means i can reduce the cost of changing the price of items i already have for sale. I decided by train this rather than go all for Plex.  With no skill i would be charged 1.89% to change every price.  Level 5 has brought this down to 0.94%.

Trade: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 4 per level.

Retail: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 8 per level

Wholesale: Level 5 (increased by two levels in January); increases the number of items i can list by 16 per level

Marketing: Level 3 (increased by one level in January); this allows me to set up Sell Orders in stations other than the one i am in; it also allowed me to look to increase my Contracting skills which i will need to sell my BPO copies from invention

Given the level 5 Trade, level 5 Retail and level 5 wholesale, i am able to post 145 items for sale (5 + (5x4) + (5x8) + (5x16)).  With no Trading skills you can post up to 5 sell orders

As i write this i am using 126 sales slots up.

I may have to train Tycoon which will give me an additional 32 slots per level.


Amarr Seller character

Started in November and has grown very quickly.  I gave my initial views in a prior post.

I am now training the relevant skills to Level 5.

The skills relevant to Trading that i have are:

Accounting: Level 4; means i am charged 2.80% of the sales price on completed sale vs the normal 5%

Broker Relations: Level 5; means i am charged 3.49% to list an item for sale

Advanced Broker Relations: Level 4; means i can reduce the cost of changing the price of items i already have for sale.th no skill i would be charged 1.89% to change every price.  Level 4 has brought this down to 1.1%.

Trade: Level 4; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 4 per level.

Retail: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 8 per level

Wholesale: Level 2; increases the number of items i can list by 16 per level

Marketing: Level 2; this allows me to set up Sell Orders in stations other than the one i am in; i don't use this really

Given the level 4 Trade, level 5 Retail and Wholesale Level 2, i am able to post 93 items for sale (5 + (4x4) + (5x8) + (2x16).

As of right now, i have 57 items up for sale.

This market is much more competitive so it is harder to find items to make a good sale.


Courier Contracts

Each night, i get home from work and determine what i need to sell in Dodixie and Amarr.  I tend to focus on one location per night unless i need to courier over 1.5bn isk of items to both locations.  So Dodixie one night, Amarr the next.  Keeps my time on Eve to a manageable 45 minutes once i have added in a bit of looking into Invention.

To look up prices in Eve I am using Eve Tycoon which seems to have more of the latest items in its market browser.  I used to use evemarketer but i just got used to Eve Tycoon.

Each night i courier about 2 to 5bn isk of items from Jita.  The total cargo volume is 100-250m3 per shipment.  So small but valuable items.  But this allows the couriers to use small, fast ships with much less chance of being ganked.  So there is always someone willing to pick up the contract quickly.

I pay a generous 1.5 to 2.0% of collateral as fees.  I am more interested in getting my items onto the market quickly than penny pinching on distribution costs.

In early February, business was slow so i had items couriered once every two nights.  Since then business has been brisker and so missed nights is due to real life rather than slow trade.



Nothing, yet, todo with my Eve Business ventures but just noting that in December i set up a website site eveeconomy.com which takes the monthly economic data provided by CCP and visualises it in chart form.

Loads of charts and more i can add.

I need to work out how to render the charts faster - right now they are accessed from a google drive given that is the way i have worked out how to update multiple charts at once quickly.

Let me know what you think and what else i should add.



Outlook

March will have five aims to it.

1) Plex the account - aim number one all the time

2) Increase sales in Dodixie

3) Increase sales in Amarr

4) Undertake further research into Invention

5) Investigate reducing 'costs of sale'.


The daily sales in February averaged 1.98bn.

If i assume i need to make 10bn + 1.4bn income per month (=11.4bn) and i assume i can achieve 15.0% margin then i need to make monthly sales of 76bn and so daily sales of 2.5bn.

So far i have achieved this in December and January.


Current wealth is 46.6bn ISK made up from:
  • items in hanger for sale 0.6bn ISK
  • Buy orders on the market 0.2bn ISK
  • items for sale 49.6bn ISK
  • less a 20% provision 9.9bn ISK*
  • ISK in wallet 6.2bn ISK

When i add up my wealth, I don't count assets I use in the course of my business such as ships, fittings etc nor do I add back any expenses such as skills purchased etc.  The wealth I disclose is made up of items that are ISK or are in the process of being converted to ISK or are used to generate isk that can be readily resold back onto the market.  Any ships or skills or fittings etc i buy are counted as expenses in that month.

* I take a 20% provision against the items I am selling.  Eve calculates wealth by adding up the value of the sell orders hence it is possible to increase your wealth by buying an item for 100m ISK and putting a sell order for 120m ISK (in this case your wealth would increase by 20m ISK).  For me, I want my wealth to be calculated at cost.  I know that the value of my sell orders will likely fall over time as I update my orders downwards as competition reduces their prices before my items are sold.  Hence the 20% provision is my best guess as to what the maximum reduction I would need to make to my sell orders as a whole before they are sold.  In an ideal world I would value my sell orders at the value which I bought the items for.

Saturday, 27 February 2021

Markets picked up again

Since i wrote my post on 11 February commenting on the slow market, within a few days the market really picked up again.

I dont think this will be a great month for me but my sales over the last 2 weeks have been strong.

I was looking like i would only make 4.5bn isk in February which, after paying the 1.2bn for 500 plex to get the account to omega, would not leave me with much.

As i write this now, i will make at least 10bn isk which will more than cover the 1.2bn plex but wont allow me to make my 10bn isk target after paying for the plex.

Of course, i still have two more days but i have to take into account that on the final day i make sure all my market prices are the lowest available which can cost me up to 1bn isk in writedowns.

Looks like i will have to wait for March for my wealth to get to 50bn, from a standing start at the end of August 2020.  To be honest, it has been slower going than i thought.

Much like that post, i don't really have an explanation for either the slowdown or the pickup.

I am all ears for suggestions.

Saturday, 20 February 2021

What investors think about Eve Online with Pearl Abyss

Nosy Gamer did a good review on the Pearl Abyss Q4 results which came out on 16 February - so i want redo that review here.


What i want to do is talk about what the financial markets think specifically of Eve Online.

Many of the brokers that write about Pearl Abyss lump all of CCPs products into one line - which makes it harder to see what Eve Online is doing vs the other CCP products (such as Eve Echoes, launching into China etc).

Technically, the revenue expectations for Eve Online were reduced but this reflects the weakening US Dollar rather than anything else.  Eve Online is reported in Korean Won in the Pearl Abyss numbers so we need to remember the currency changes.

For those that do split out Eve Online, the expectations are that Eve Online had a better than expected 2020 (lockdowns helped all games) and then for a gentle decline in revenues over the next few years.

To put this in context, most investors are expecting existing games to see a decline in revenues when we come out of the lockdowns.  The question is how much of a decline.  However, once we have the initial decline, most investors are then expecting existing games to start growing again.

For Eve Online though investors are not expecting a noticeable pull back in 2021 but merely a gentle decline in 2021 and 2022.

This fits in with the narrative investors have about Eve Online - it is a very loyal player base though not really growing.  So merely seeing gentle attrition over time.

Otherwise, Eve Online is barely mentioned when investors talk about Pearl Abyss.  To me, this looks like everyone is assuming that peak revenues have been achieved and the aim is to hold onto these revenues or at least only allow a gentle decline.

It seems that the value in CCP to Pearl Abyss is the new product launches (Eve Echoes Global, Eve Online into China) and more access to the western market rather than growing the current Eve Online.


Other items of note

The Pearl Abyss presentations do mention that 80% of the player base of Eve Online originated from cohorts prior to 2018.  i.e. of the players around at the end of 2017, 80% of them are still around today and therefore the rest of the players today have joined in 2018-2020.

Thursday, 18 February 2021

Eve Economy Website updated for January 2021 monthly data

The Eve Economy website has been updated for the January 2021 monthly economic data which was just released by ccp

The site takes the monthly economic data for Eve Online provided by CCP and puts it all together in charts so that we may get a better understanding about the economy of Eve.

The pdf chartbook on the home page has 241 slides covering all the charts:
  • Section 1: Daily data from 2012 onwards
  • Section 2: Wealth in the Eve Economy
  • Section 3: Top level Regional Data
  • Section 4: Discrepancy charts - showing that the daily data is not reconciling with the monthly Regional data
  • Section 5: Regional data for each region from 2016 onwards
  • Section 6: Faucets and Sinks
  • Section 7: Discontinued Sinks and Faucets
  • Section 8: Economic Indices
  • Section 9: Interesting observations
  • Section 10: State of PVP
  • Section 11: State of PVP by Region

The chart pack looks at each and every region, including regions that have been and gone.


Quick Summary

I will take a closer look in over the next few days but the main items of note i can see are:

1) The large battle data from the end of 2020 is in the January data.  So, this is where we see the almost 200 Titans destroyed.



2) Largest month on record for destruction and only the fifth month on record where destruction exceeded NPC Bounties, and only the sixth month on record where destruction exceeded production.





3) Long term down trend in Trade, Mining and Production continues though each was up on December.

4) Overall ISK coming into the game was around average but overall ISK leaving the game (before counting players leaving or banned) was at record levels of 87 trillion (vs 74 trillion in December)



















This was due to an increase in: Merchant Sinks across the range of Transaction Taxes and Broker Listing Fees; Player Sinks due to an increase in Insurance taken out; and the largest individual item was the Structure Module fee which we expected due to the January deadline.

5) NPC Bounties remained at record lows whilst Commodity Sales remained at record highs with Incursion ISK hitting new highs.



















6) Hek and Rens are establishing a rising trend in Trade vs Dodixie which remains flat.

Sunday, 14 February 2021

youtube channel - The Oz Report

I am always on the look out for youtube, or other media, channels that update frequently and which focus on the business side of Eve Online.

To that end, i recently came across The Oz Report.  It is a weekly, sometimes more frequent, 15 minute review on what the presenter is doing in the Eve markets to make ISK.

Occasionally we get a 45 minute video.

Its different to Eve Talk in that it tends to focus on one part of the market at a time.

What i really like about it is that the presenter goes into good detail about why he is buying or selling or investing in the items in focus.  You don't have to listen far into an episode to realize that he knows what he is talking about and likely has a background in economics or finance.

And what brings this all home is that you see his process in action and therefore you are free to use all or some or none if it, as you choose.

It is also clear that the presenter has a good amount of Eve knowledge and therefore is able to take events within Eve and link them to expected movements of prices to come.

So you are getting the full story - the fundamentals on why the item or group of items look interesting, the chart technicals on why now is a good time to Buy / Sell / Invest and you see the presenter in action making the moves.

Tucked away in his videos are decent length guides on what tools he uses and how and identifying the best trades and more.

Much like the Strange Net videos, for me this is one where i would point players that wanted to learn how to make ISK from the markets to.

I have added it to the links on the right (Eve Trading Youtube Casts).


He also has a Discord channel and Twitch channel, details are on the youtube about page

Thursday, 11 February 2021

Markets seem very slow

My current business in Eve is to buy items from Jita Sell Orders and have them couriered to Dodixie and Amarr to put up as Sell Orders.

I take a 25% margin and about 10% of that margin is eaten up by courier costs + Broker Fees + Sales Taxes.

And it works well.



But recently the market is slow

However, the last month of January and the first week or so of February have been very very slow.

At this rate, i will only make 4.5bn isk profits in February which is more than enough to cover the Omega time (i have just bought the 500 Plex tonight) but otherwise will be not much better than my first full month since i restarted in August 2020.



Why?

Some have suggested the war going on has taken pilots away from kitting their own ships to rely on the ships given to them.

Others have suggested a post Christmas slowdown.

I honestly don't know the answer but i look forward to the January and February economic data to see if we can see overall what i am feeling at my level.

Monday, 8 February 2021

Month end update - January 2021

At the end of my fifth full month, my wealth is 38.2bn ISK after paying 1.3bn to upgrade Omega for another 30 days.  My wealth increased by 10.3bn in January.

Not as good as i hoped.  January started strongly on the back of a good December but really slowed in the final two weeks.

And so far, February has crawled to a halt.


Review of the January aims

1) Plex the account - done

2) Increase sales in Dodixie (- this may be tough) - missed

3) Increase sales in Amarr - done

4) Expand further into Invention - missed

5) Investigate reducing 'costs of sale' - missed



Onwards to the next aim

This time in Eve, i don't want to purely focus on trading by having characters in each trading hub.  I want to experience as many of the isk making ventures in Eve that i reasonably can.

So, the aim with trading is to get to 10bn monthly income after buying the Plex to extend the Omega account.

That was achieved in December and again in January.  Not sure if it is sustainable but i will take it as a sign to advance onto another venture.


Invention

More posts to come but i have decided to try my hand at invention - i decided last month but to be honest i got nowhere in January.

I need to look into it more to work out where to start.  I like the look of it: low click rate; looks like an inefficient market; so if it works out it would really be a low time consumption source of income - not quite passive, but close.

Lets see how it goes.


Reminder of my Current Business.

I operate with one account with three alts.

The main alt is a seller in Dodixie and the other alt is a seller in Amarr, two of the main trade hubs in Eve Online.

The third alt sits in Jita and buys from Sell Orders, has these items couriered to the alts in Dodixie and Amarr who then put them onto these markets for sale.

I focus on slow moving but high margin items.

For this side of my business, lets call it Merchanting, i want to generate income of 10bn isk per month after paying to Plex my account.


Analysis of Trading Profits

Explaining the journey of sales of 70.6bn to the increase in wealth of 10.3bn . . . . . 

In all, i made sales of 70.6bn isk (vs 78.3bn in December) which created income of 11.6bn (1.3bn was used to buy Plex, 11.0bn was invested back into the market) vs 13.4bn in December.

Hence, sales fell 10% overall.

Dodixie sales were 42.4bn (vs 53.7bn in December) whilst Amarr sales were 28.2bn (vs 24.6bn in December).

So, it was the 21% sales decline in Dodixie that caused my profits to fall where as Amarr grew sales by 15%.

Purchases of items from Jita cost 50.1bn isk (vs 55.8bn in December), so my item margin was 29.0% ((70.6-50.1)/70.6) vs 28.8% in December.  Respectably above the 25% item margin target but down on the elevated 32.2% in November.

Of course, i need to take a whole series of costs off before i get to my Business profits:

Courier Fees: i aim to pay 2% of sales value to the Courier = 2% x 70.6 = 1.4bn

Sales tax cost me 2.0bn ISk (=2.8% of sales), as expected given i am Level 4 Accounting Skill on both characters.

Broker Fees costs me 5.4bn (=7.7% of sales).  Now, i can break this down into the initial listing fee of 3.78% (because i am Level 4 Broker Relations on both characters) and therefore the rest is the cost of changing the price which is 1.14% a shot.

So, i know the listing fee = 3.78% x 70.6 = 2.7bn and therefore the price change fee is 2.7bn (5.4 - 2.7). This 2.7bn is 3.9% of sales.  This is higher than December and reflects a more competitive environment in January which meant i had to change my prices more often.

This takes my 'Business Profits' to 11.6bn isk for January vs 13.4bn in December.  This is what 45 minutes a day in January gave me.

So, the post-tax margin is 29.0% - 2.0% - 2.8% - 3.8% - 3.9% = 16.5% (=11.6/78.3).

Fees and Taxes take 12.5% off my margins (2.0+2.8+3.8+3.9).  That is a big hit.  I can take action to reduce this which i may investigate in the medium term (needless to say, i did not get round to investigating this in January).

16.5% is respectable, i would normally aim to get a respectable 13 to 15%.  i can improve on it if i train Accounting and Broker Relations  / Advanced Broker Relations to level 5 . . . . . which is on the "to do" list . . . . .and which i have started now on my Dodixie character.

And then from those 'Business Profits' i buy Plex for 1.3bn isk to extend the Omega by 30 days.

That, therefore, is the roadmap from making 70.6bn of sales and seeing my wealth increase by 10.3bn as a result.


Dodixie Seller character

This remains my main character and is the biggest seller.

The skills relevant to Trading that i have are (made three change):

Accounting: Level 4; means i am charged 2.80% of the sales price on completed sale vs the normal 5%

Broker Relations: Level 4; means i am charged 3.78% to list an item for sale

Advanced Broker Relations: Level 5; means i can reduce the cost of changing the price of items i already have for sale. I decided by train this rather than go all for Plex.  With no skill i would be charged 1.89% to change every price.  Level 5 has brought this down to 0.94%.

Trade: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 4 per level.

Retail: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 8 per level

Wholesale: Level 5 (increased by two levels in January); increases the number of items i can list by 16 per level

Marketing: Level 3 (increased by one level in January); this allows me to set up Sell Orders in stations other than the one i am in; it also allowed me to look to increase my Contracting skills which i will need to sell my BPO copies from invention

Given the level 5 Trade, level 5 Retail and level 5 wholesale, i am able to post 145 items for sale (5 + (5x4) + (5x8) + (5x16)).  With no Trading skills you can post up to 5 sell orders

As i write this i am using 116 sales slots up.


Items i am selling in Dodixie (and Amarr)

I sell blueprints, skill books and ship equipment.  There is still no change here.

But, the markets are slowing down so i have had to move back to selling items i buy from Jita for 10m to sell for 35m.

For blueprints and skill books i focus on items that are not seeded in Dodixie (or Amarr for the Amarr seller).  It is a nice source of sales, varying from 100m to a few billion on a really good day - players will pay up to avoid travelling to Jita to save isk to buy that blueprint or skillbook.

Ship equipment makes up the rest, typically it is the same items each time though i find i make a few sales then need to let that item rest and the price reset upwards before i revisit.

Rigidly sticking to the 25% margin target.  I have to given courier fees and taxes take a whopping 12% of that to leave me with 13%.  This is the one line i can't really cross.  If i took the margin down to 20% then after costs i am looking at 8% profits which leaves no room to change prices too often!

Similar story in Amarr, some items are the same but the main groups are all the same: blueprints, skill books and ship equipment


Amarr Seller character

Started in November and has grown very quickly.  I gave my initial views in a prior post.

The skills relevant to Trading that i have are:

Accounting: Level 4; means i am charged 2.80% of the sales price on completed sale vs the normal 5%

Broker Relations: Level 4; means i am charged 3.78% to list an item for sale

Advanced Broker Relations: Level 4; means i can reduce the cost of changing the price of items i already have for sale.th no skill i would be charged 1.89% to change every price.  Level 4 has brought this down to 1.1%.

Trade: Level 4; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 4 per level.

Retail: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 8 per level

Wholesale: Level 2; increases the number of items i can list by 16 per level

Marketing: Level 2; this allows me to set up Sell Orders in stations other than the one i am in; i don't use this really

Given the level 4 Trade, level 5 Retail and Wholesale Level 2, i am able to post 93 items for sale (5 + (4x4) + (5x8) + (2x16).

As of right now, i have 46 items up for sale.


Courier Contracts

Each night, i get home from work and determine what i need to sell in Dodixie and Amarr.  I tend to focus on one location per night unless i need to courier over 1bn isk of items to both locations.  So Dodixie one night, Amarr the next.  Keeps my time on Eve to a manageable 45 minutes once i have added in a bit of looking into Invention.

To look up prices in Eve I am using Eve Tycoon which seems to have more of the latest items in its market browser.  I used to use evemarketer but i just got used to Eve Tycoon.

Each night i courier about 2 to 5bn isk of items from Jita.  The total cargo volume is 100-250m3 per shipment.  So small but valuable items.  But this allows the couriers to use small, fast ships with much less chance of being ganked.  So there is always someone willing to pick up the contract quickly.

I pay a generous 1.5 to 2.0% of collateral as fees.  I am more interested in getting my items onto the market quickly than penny pinching on distribution costs.

in the last 10 days or so of January and into the first week of February, i have not been making my target 2.5bn sales per day.  Hence, i have been having items couriered once every two or three nights as a result.  Market really slowed down at the end of January.



Nothing, yet, todo with my Eve Business ventures but just noting that in December i set up a website site eveeconomy.com which takes the monthly economic data provided by CCP and visualises it in chart form.

Loads of charts and more i can add.

I need to work out how to render the charts faster - right now they are accessed from a google drive given that is the way i have worked out how to update multiple charts at once quickly.

Let me know what you think and what else i should add.

Looking forwards to the December data given the recent battle.


Outlook

February will have five aims to it.

1) Plex the account - aim number one all the time

2) Increase sales in Dodixie - this may be tough given the slow market

3) Increase sales in Amarr - this may be tough given the slow market

4) Expand further into Invention

5) Investigate reducing 'costs of sale'.


The daily sales in December averaged 2.35bn.

If i assume i need to make 10bn + 1.4bn income per month (=11.4bn) and i assume i can achieve 15.0% margin then i need to make monthly sales of 76bn and so daily sales of 2.5bn.

January was my second month of achieving the 10bn after Plex costs.


Current wealth is 38.2bn ISK made up from:
  • items in hanger for sale 1.3bn ISK
  • Buy orders on the market 0.2bn ISK
  • items for sale 45.1bn ISK
  • less a 20% provision 9.0bn ISK*
  • ISK in wallet 0.7bn ISK

When i add up my wealth, I don't count assets I use in the course of my business such as ships, fittings etc nor do I add back any expenses such as skills purchased etc.  The wealth I disclose is made up of items that are ISK or are in the process of being converted to ISK or are used to generate isk that can be readily resold back onto the market.  Any ships or skills or fittings etc i buy are counted as expenses in that month.

* I take a 20% provision against the items I am selling.  Eve calculates wealth by adding up the value of the sell orders hence it is possible to increase your wealth by buying an item for 100m ISK and putting a sell order for 120m ISK (in this case your wealth would increase by 20m ISK).  For me, I want my wealth to be calculated at cost.  I know that the value of my sell orders will likely fall over time as I update my orders downwards as competition reduces their prices before my items are sold.  Hence the 20% provision is my best guess as to what the maximum reduction I would need to make to my sell orders as a whole before they are sold.  In an ideal world I would value my sell orders at the value which I bought the items for.

Saturday, 30 January 2021

Monthly Economic Report - A focus on Sinks

In the last post i looked at the summary inflows and outflows of isk, and then focused on the inflows (faucets).

In this post i want to look at the outflows of isk (sinks).

All the charts comes from my website, eveeconomy.com.  The charts in this post come from the Sinks Charts page

As a reminder, i am talking about how isk leaves the game.  A ship destroyed is not isk leaving the game, buying ammo is not isk leaving the game but paying accounting tax when selling an item is isk leaving the game.

In the prior post we could see that the overall outflow of isk remained towards the higher end of its historical range.


The main sources of sinks



















I like to group the isk outflows (sinks) into 5 categories, as shown in the charts above:
  • Merchant related - sales and broking taxes etc
  • Industrial related - manufacturing fees etc
  • Scientist related - research fees, buying BPOs from NPCs etc
  • Player related - skill books bought from NPCs, parallel skill training etc
  • Corporation related - war fees, infrastructure maintenance etc

I will go into each below and address the remaining other sinks.

But the main thing to note is that the economic related categories (Merchant, Industrial, Scientist) are in decline and that must surely reflect declining economic activity.  In other words, a recession.



Merchant sinks


Looking at the Merchant related sinks, which is the area i focus on at the moment to make isk, we can divide this into six individual areas:

Transaction Taxes (top left chart) is the largest (did not used to be), and you can see when the tax rate stepped up in the middle of 2019 though has been in decline since April 2020.  Perhaps seeing some sigh of stabilization now.  This decline more or less coincides with the changes in the Broker Listing fees and introduction of the new market re-list fee.  There is a disincentive to list bulk Sell Orders which therefore reduces the number of items for sale and so reduces overall market activity.

Broker Listing Fees (middle left chart) are the next largest (at times in the past they were the largest) and are back below historic levels.  Now, i don't have the data to know if part of this decline is due to more items being listed at Player stations or if this is otherwise due to less market activity.

Broker re-List Fees (bottom left chart) are the next largest though again also in decline.  I believe all re-List fees go to NPCs (i.e. non to players?) and therefore the decline we are seeing since the month it was fully introduced must surely represent declining market activity.

Hypernet Relay Taxes (top right chart) have held steady once they found a level after the launch of this facility.

Contract Brokers Fees and Contract Sales Taxes (middle and bottom right charts) are broadly flat but are quite small in the big scheme of things.

But, the decline in the Transaction Taxes and Broker Taxes clearly indicates falling market activity despite allowance for orders being placed in Player stations.



Industrial Sinks



Manufacturing Fees (top left chart) has been in decline since (perhaps coincidently) the broker tax changes were introduced though we have also seen changes to industry taxes.  It is tempting to suggest that this indicates declining activity and i suspect it does - the only cloud of uncertainty is the next chart which shows rising Industry Job Taxes.

The other taxes in Manufacturing are much smaller

Industry Job Tax (middle left chart) has been rising over the last few months.  That may indicate that players producing in expensive systems are not moving rather than a rise in activity.

Reprocessing Tax (bottom left chart) is very small.  It is much better to reprocess from a player owned structure.  So to comment on a trend is fraught with data issues - so lets not.

Planetary Interaction taxes (charts on the left) have all been in decline in part due to Player owned custom structures but mostly because of the declining activity and declining prices as this source of income becomes harder for players.



Scientist Sinks

Remains higher than Industrial Sinks overall but much lower than its glory days.


Buying Blueprints from NPCs (top left chart) remains the largest Scientist related sink though has been in decline since April 2020.  Again, i suspect this indicates falling economic activity.

Reaction Fees (middle left chart) remains steady

Researching Material Productivity, Researching Time Productivity and Copying Fees (the remaining charts) are all in decline.  Again, suggesting declining economic activity.



Player Sinks


Parallel Skill Running (top left chart) is where players purchase the ability for a second alt to train skills at the same time as the main alt. Had declined a but but remains popular.  I have not checked to see if a profit can still be made to buy the ability to train skills on a second alt for 30 days and then sell the skill points.

Skill Books purchased from NPCs (middle left chart) continues to decline.  I am a little surprised at that given other charts suggest player activity remains robust.  This may suggest that new players coming through is slowing.

The other charts Repair Bills (bottom left), Bounty Fees (top right), Jump Clone Activation (middle right) and Insurance Premiums (bottom right) are small or, in the case of the insurance premiums, not really worthy of saying much.



Corporate Sinks


These are really low numbers.

Infrastructure Hub Maintenance (top left chart) remains flat

War Fees (middle left chart) has been flat for a long time other than a blip in June 2020

Contract Broker Fee (bottom left chart) is flat.

Corporation Registration Fee (top right chart) is declining so perhaps just less corporations being created

Office Rental Fees (middle right chart) - interestingly increasing, not sure if that indicates relocation to more crowded stations or more corporations renting offices.



Other Sinks



Some items of note here.

Commodity Purchases from NPCs (top left chart) has remained flat

Structure Modules (middle left chart) a new sink for four months has risen strongly in December.  I believe this is the Quantum Cores which are required for all structures.  Existing structures require them in place by 12 January 2021.  So i suspect we are seeing the existing structures being updated in December and likely see some in January also.

Alliance Registration Fee (bottom left chart) has remained flat.

LP Store (top right chart) is arguably declining since the summer and is in the bottom half of its normal range

Asset Safety Recovery (middle right chart) is generally on a rising trend and presumably reflects the trend to move from NPC stations to Player stations or the rise in stations being destroyed (my understanding is that the fee is paid when the Asset Safety is triggered and comes at 0.5% of the assets if retrieved within 5 days or 15% if retrieved after 20 days.

Reprocessing Tax (bottom right chart) . . . . . . . .is double counted, it is already in the Industrial section




Security Processing Fee (top chart), Deployable Fees (middle chart) fell to nil and the remaining Other Sinks (bottom chart) are very small so nothing to say, here for completeness.



Discontinued Sinks

For completeness, i have included the charts on discontinued sinks which were all small numbers anyway: