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Sunday, 18 April 2021

Month end update - March 2021

At the end of my seventh full month, my wealth is 62.5bn ISK after paying 1.3bn to upgrade Omega for another 30 days.  My wealth increased by 15.9bn in March.

A strong month almost throughout March.

Average sales per day was 2.9bn and average trading profits per day was 550m.

Made up for a weak February.



Review of the March aims

1) Plex the account - done

2) Increase sales in Dodixie - done

3) Increase sales in Amarr done

4) Expand further into Invention - missed

5) Investigate reducing 'costs of sale' - missed



Onwards (deferred) to the next aim

So, my aim this time in Eve was that i did not want to purely focus on trading by having characters in each trading hub.  I wanted to experience as many of the isk making ventures in Eve that i reasonably can.  I was going to wait until i made 10bn isk per month after buying plex before expanding into other business ventures.

Two things getting in the way for now.  1) real life is proving to be busy; and 2) the coming industrial changes make things a bit more uncertain.

So, i have decided to open an Alpha account and put a character in Rens and see if i can get that up and running as a trading character.

Once real life calms down i will take another look at Industry and Invention.


Reminder of my Current Business.

I operate with one account with three alts and now another (alpha) account with one alt.

The main alt is a seller in Dodixie and the other alt is a seller in Amarr, two of the main trade hubs in Eve Online.

The third alt sits in Jita and buys from Sell Orders, has these items couriered to the alts in Dodixie and Amarr who then put them onto these markets for sale.

I focus on slow moving but high margin items.

For this side of my business, lets call it Merchanting or inter-regional trading, i want to generate income of 10bn isk per month after paying to Plex my account.


Analysis of Trading Profits

In total i made 90.8bn of sales in March which made me item profits of 26.9bn isk.  An increase of 64% on February and an increase of 16% on the Christmas enhanced December.  That was fantastic.

Dodixie sales were up 20% on February and Amarr sales were up a massive 83%.  It looks like i am starting to make Amarr work..

When i say "item profit" i mean the pure profits of buying from Sell Orders in Jita and putting up for Sale in Dodixie and Amarr.  So before all fees / taxes etc.

This therefore was an item margin of 29.6% (26.9/90.8) vs my target of 25%.  Since September 2020 the item margin range has been 28% to 32% with one low outlier of 26.6% in October 2020.  That is good news, i am comfortably beating the 25% i really need to make this all work (see below).

From this I then need to take a whole series of costs off before i get to my Business profits:

Courier Fees: i aim to pay 2% of sales value to the Courier = 2% x 90.8 = 1.8bn

Sales tax cost me 2.1bn ISk (=2.3% of sales) - both characters are level 5 in Accounting

Broker Fees costs me 5.9bn (=6.5% of sales).  Now, i can break this down into the initial listing fee of 3.50% (because i am Level 5 Broker Relations on both characters) and therefore the rest is the cost of changing the price which is 1.14% a shot.

So, i know the listing fee = 3.50% x 90.8 = 3.2bn and therefore the price change fee is 2.7bn (5.9 - 3.2). This 2.7bn is 3.0% of sales.  So, not too a competitive month.

This takes my 'Business Profits' to 17.1bn isk for March vs 9.7bn in February.  This is what 45 minutes a day in March gave me.

Worth noting that this is an increase of 76%.  So, sales rose 64% but profits rose 76% - this is because i increased my skill levels in Broking and Accountancy.

So, the post-tax margin is 29.6% - 2.0% - 2.3% - 3.5% - 3.0% = 18.8% (=17.1/90.8).

Fees and Taxes take 10.8% off my margins (2.0+2.3+3.5+3.0).  That is a big hit.  I can take action to reduce this which i may investigate in the medium term.

18.8% is very respectable, i would normally aim to get a respectable 13 to 15%.  In fact, 18.8% is the second highest i have achieved so far.

And then from those 'Business Profits' i buy Plex for 1.2bn isk to extend the Omega by 30 days.

That, therefore, is the roadmap from making 90.8bn of sales and seeing my wealth increase by 15.9bn as a result.


Items i am selling in Dodixie and Amarr

I sell blueprints, skill books, implants and ship equipment.

Two changes in March.

Firstly, I am ramping up harder on implants and selling less blueprints and ship equipment.

Secondly, i am moving into higher valued items.  For now, i only sell items that sell for more than 100m in Jita.  And i am quite happy to be buying items from Jita Sell orders for 1 or 2 billion Isk.

I am trying to focus on these items of higher value to keep the number of items for sale down and so make life easier.

For blueprints and skill books i focus on items that are not seeded in Dodixie (or Amarr for the Amarr seller).  It is a nice source of sales, varying from 100m to a few billion on a really good day - players will pay up to avoid travelling to Jita to save isk to buy that blueprint or skillbook.  This has slowed down more recently with competitors willing to take very slim margins.

Rigidly sticking to the 25% margin target.  Courier fees and taxes can take a whopping 12% of that to leave me with 13%.  This is the one line i can't really cross.  If i took the margin down to 20% then after costs i am looking at 8% profits which leaves no room to change prices too often!

The items i sell in Dodixie and Amarr are often very similar but not always.  They remain two distinct markets with Amarr being the most competitive.


Dodixie Seller character

This remains my main character and is the biggest seller.

I have now trained all the relevant skills to Level 5.

The skills relevant to Trading that i have are:

Accounting: Level 5; means i am charged 2.25% of the sales price on completed sale vs the normal 5%

Broker Relations: Level 5; means i am charged 3.49% to list an item for sale

Advanced Broker Relations: Level 5; means i can reduce the cost of changing the price of items i already have for sale. I decided by train this rather than go all for Plex.  With no skill i would be charged 1.89% to change every price.  Level 5 has brought this down to 0.94%.

Trade: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 4 per level.

Retail: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 8 per level

Wholesale: Level 5 (increased by two levels in January); increases the number of items i can list by 16 per level

Marketing: Level 3 (increased by one level in January); this allows me to set up Sell Orders in stations other than the one i am in; it also allowed me to look to increase my Contracting skills which i will need to sell my BPO copies from invention

Given the level 5 Trade, level 5 Retail and level 5 wholesale, i am able to post 145 items for sale (5 + (5x4) + (5x8) + (5x16)).  With no Trading skills you can post up to 5 sell orders

As i write this i am using 101 sales slots up with an average selling price per item of 470m.

I may have to train Tycoon which will give me an additional 32 slots per level.


Amarr Seller character

Started in November and has grown very quickly.  I gave my initial views in a prior post.

I have now trained all the relevant skills to Level 5.

The skills relevant to Trading that i have are:

Accounting: Level 5; means i am charged 2.25% of the sales price on completed sale vs the normal 5%

Broker Relations: Level 5; means i am charged 3.49% to list an item for sale

Advanced Broker Relations: Level 5; means i can reduce the cost of changing the price of items i already have for sale. I decided by train this rather than go all for Plex.  With no skill i would be charged 1.89% to change every price.  Level 5 has brought this down to 0.94%.

Trade: Level 4; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 4 per level.

Retail: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 8 per level

Wholesale: Level 2; increases the number of items i can list by 16 per level

Marketing: Level 2; this allows me to set up Sell Orders in stations other than the one i am in; i don't use this really

Given the level 4 Trade, level 5 Retail and Wholesale Level 2, i am able to post 93 items for sale (5 + (4x4) + (5x8) + (2x16).

As of right now, i have 45 items up for sale with an average sales value of 650m.

This market is much more competitive so it is harder to find items to make a good sale.


Courier Contracts

Each night, i get home from work and determine what i need to sell in Dodixie and Amarr.  I tend to focus on one location per night unless i need to courier over 1.5bn isk of items to both locations.  So Dodixie one night, Amarr the next.  Keeps my time on Eve to a manageable 45 minutes which includes looking for potential new items to sell.

To look up prices in Eve I am using Eve Tycoon which seems to have more of the latest items in its market browser.  I used to use evemarketer but i just got used to Eve Tycoon.

Each night i courier about 2 to 8bn isk of items from Jita.  The total cargo volume is 10-250m3 per shipment.  So small but valuable items.  But this allows the couriers to use small, fast ships with much less chance of being ganked.  So there is always someone willing to pick up the contract quickly.

I pay a generous 1.5 to 2.0% of collateral as fees.  I am more interested in getting my items onto the market quickly than penny pinching on distribution costs.




Nothing, yet, todo with my Eve Business ventures but just noting that in December i set up a website site eveeconomy.com which takes the monthly economic data provided by CCP and visualises it in chart form.

Loads of charts and more i can add.

I need to work out how to render the charts faster - right now they are accessed from a google drive given that is the way i have worked out how to update multiple charts at once quickly.

Let me know what you think and what else i should add.



Outlook

April will have four aims to it.

1) Plex the account - aim number one all the time

2) Increase sales in Dodixie

3) Increase sales in Amarr

4) Push forward with setting up a trade alpha character in Rens
 
The daily sales in March averaged 2.93bn.

If i assume i need to make 10bn + 1.4bn income per month (=11.4bn) and i assume i can achieve 15.0% margin then i need to make monthly sales of 76bn and so daily sales of 2.5bn.

So far i have achieved this in December, January and March.  I suspect i will do so in April also.


Current wealth is 62.5bn ISK made up from:
  • items in hanger for sale 0.4bn ISK
  • Buy orders on the market 0.2bn ISK
  • items for sale 76.3bn ISK
  • less a 20% provision 15.3bn ISK*
  • ISK in wallet 0.9bn ISK

When i add up my wealth, I don't count assets I use in the course of my business such as ships, fittings etc nor do I add back any expenses such as skills purchased etc.  The wealth I disclose is made up of items that are ISK or are in the process of being converted to ISK or are used to generate isk that can be readily resold back onto the market.  Any ships or skills or fittings etc i buy are counted as expenses in that month.

* I take a 20% provision against the items I am selling.  Eve calculates wealth by adding up the value of the sell orders hence it is possible to increase your wealth by buying an item for 100m ISK and putting a sell order for 120m ISK (in this case your wealth would increase by 20m ISK).  For me, I want my wealth to be calculated at cost.  I know that the value of my sell orders will likely fall over time as I update my orders downwards as competition reduces their prices before my items are sold.  Hence the 20% provision is my best guess as to what the maximum reduction I would need to make to my sell orders as a whole before they are sold.  In an ideal world I would value my sell orders at the value which I bought the items for.

Sunday, 4 April 2021

Cheap Office Rental

At the back end of Eve, at a place i occasionally go to pick up some blueprints that are seeded there, i noticed that the current office rental fee was a mere 47k isk per month.  Never seen it so cheap.
















Increasingly, as a i travel there through low sec and null sec i am seeing less and less players on the route.


What is an Office in Eve Online?


A headquarters is just a designation and does not come with anything tangible.

Offices though is an actual physical location in Eve in a npc or player station.  With this comes corporation hangers where all members of the corporation can access and so is part of the process of making items available to all or certain players.  For example, for production.

A corporation can rent as many offices as it wants though only one per station.

NPC stations are limited to 24 offices, player build stations are limited by type.


How are the fees decided?

The rental fee moves with demand.  If all offices are taken up, the rental fee rises by 5%.  If one office is available the price is flat and if two or more are available the price declines driven by how many are available.  The minimum rent is 10l isk per month.

So, if all the offices are taken up all month then a monthly fee will rise by 354% (5% every day for 31 days).

Rents are paid in advance.  No payment then the office is lost.

As far as i am aware, you can't remotely check the office rental fee.  You have to be in the station.

In player built stations, the owner decides the fee.


So, why is that office at the back end of Eve so cheap?

Because, for my corporation to benefit from it i would need my corp members to be there relatively often.  And that is never the case.  And i suspect it is only the case for a few corporations that operate in that part of Eve.  But certainly not 24.

I can see it falling to 10k isk per month at some stage.

Friday, 26 March 2021

Eve Economy website updated for February 2021 data

 The Eve Economy website has been updated for the February 2021 monthly economic data which was just released by ccp


The site takes the monthly economic data for Eve Online provided by CCP and puts it all together in charts so that we may get a better understanding about the economy of Eve.

The pdf chartbook on the home page has 241 slides covering all the charts:
  • Section 1: Daily data from 2012 onwards
  • Section 2: Wealth in the Eve Economy
  • Section 3: Top level Regional Data
  • Section 4: Discrepancy charts - showing that the daily data is not reconciling with the monthly Regional data
  • Section 5: Regional data for each region from 2016 onwards
  • Section 6: Faucets and Sinks
  • Section 7: Discontinued Sinks and Faucets
  • Section 8: Economic Indices
  • Section 9: Interesting observations
  • Section 10: State of PVP
  • Section 11: State of PVP by Region

The chart pack looks at each and every region, including regions that have been and gone.


Quick Summary

I will take a closer look in over the next few days but the main items of note i can see are:

1) Overall, Trading, Mining and Production continue their drift downwards




2) Absolutely no sign of Amarr seeing a slowdown in Trading though perhaps Miners and Production is slowly moving out.



3) Another month of near record lows for NPC Bounties vs a record month for Incursions Payouts and Commodity payments remian high.





















4) Tough couple of months for Miners and Stations in Catch






















Thursday, 25 March 2021

Stepping into empty markets

As my wealth increases and as i stick to regional trading (buying from Sell orders in Jita to put up for sale in Dodixie / Amarr) i need to find new items to sell.

That can get quite hard.

My criteria remains that i want to achieve 25% profit margins on items i sell (i.e. if i buy for 100m in Jita, i need to sell in Dodixie for 133m isk).  To do this i focus on items that have very limited competition and so sell in very low volume.  This keeps the time required to update orders to a minimum.

One source of new ideas i am finding quite lucrative is where i focus on items that have not been sold in Dodixie or Amarr for many months.

Typically they tend to be more highly priced, so over 300m isk and in regions where they do well the volumes are very low anyway.  That makes sense - the chances are that it was only one player selling the item historically who has moved on and the buyers have merely found an alternative item to satisfy their needs.

Alternatively, they may also be items more lowly priced that may be more normally manufactured in Low or Null sec.

But also, i suspect, with markets operating at lower levels than historically then i believe trading in many items has merely consolidated back to Jita.  This suggests to me that re-starting those markets in Dodixie or Amarr should be quite a good idea.

This is where i step in.

The risks are clear - i may end up trying to sell an item where there really is no demand.  And so after 90 days the item will just fall back into my hanger.

The good news in this case is that i will only have spent the Broker Listing fee of 3.5% (my characters are now all Level 5 Broker Relations).  Ultimately, if it fails to sell i can courier it back to Jita and try and sell there to limit my losses.

But, with a fair wind, i will unlock new markets and the buyers will come back.

So far, this is working well.  I only have a few items that look like they may go the full 90 days but the rest are finding a buyer after a while.  And that is fine with me.

I have about 75bn isk worth of items for sale and i aim to sell 2.5bn isk a day to achieve the 10bn monthly income after renewing my omega account with Plex each month.  So, i only need 3.3% of my items to sell each day.  i.e. 1 in 30.

Therefore, stepping into these empty markets seems to me a sensible place to go.

I don't go over board, i list one item only in each market and i don't try and make a ludicrous profit - i stick to the 25% target margin.


Sunday, 21 March 2021

Double clicking inside a station opens the Inventory Window

Well, perhaps a low quality post but i was never aware of this.

If you are docked, then double-clicking your left mouse button will open the ships cargo hold.

If you then set the "settings" on the cargo window to "Always show the full tree" then the double-click will always open the normal Inventory window.



Useful, i thought.  Saves reaching for the keyboard.

Sunday, 14 March 2021

Market is surprising strong at present

At the end of February i remarked that the markets had picked up again, but not enough to get me my 10bn isk after paying for the monthly omega account.

Well, this state of affairs has continued.

Hoping i am not putting an end to it all but my daily profits are currently 575m and spread over typical items i sell in Ship Equipment, Ship Modifications, Skills and Implants.  Blueprints though are not really selling at all.

So, over the first 13 days of March i have made 7.5bn isk profits.

I am racing to get my amarr character to Level 5 in all the relevant Trade Skills to bring the cost of trading as low as possible.  Currently he is Level 5 in Accounting and Broker Relations, and 7 days away from Level 5 in Advanced Broker Relations.


It worth thinking about the 575m isk per day profit.

The temptation is to sell items that i can buy from Jita for 200m and sell for 270m to make by 25% profit margin).

But if i buy items for 12m from Jita and Sell for 35m then that is 23m profit less Broker Fees of 1.3m + Sales Tax of 1.0m + courier cost 0.7m gives profit of 20m.  That is 4% of the 575m isk and there is absolutely no competition in this item and it sells every time i put one up.

So, for now, i am not abandoning this low value but good stream of profits.

What i am doing though is exploring more in implants and i am starting to sell the higher value ones where there is no competition.  I am hoping that as i stock the items for sale then buyers will bite.  Lets see.  It is a risk, perhaps the reason there were none for sale is because there were never any buyers!


Sunday, 7 March 2021

Month end update - February 2021

At the end of my sixth full month, my wealth is 46.62bn ISK after paying 1.3bn to upgrade Omega for another 30 days.  My wealth increased by 8.4bn in February.

Disappointing really.  the first two weeks of February were like the final two weeks of January - really slow.  Things picked up in the next two weeks but not enough to get me over the 10bn mark that i aim for.

In fact, month was worse the November, December and January.  Poor show.  Tough markets.  Not competitive, just quiet.



Review of the February aims

1) Plex the account - done

2) Increase sales in Dodixie - missed

3) Increase sales in Amarr - missed

4) Expand further into Invention - missed

5) Investigate reducing 'costs of sale' - missed



Onwards to the next aim

This time in Eve, i don't want to purely focus on trading by having characters in each trading hub.  I want to experience as many of the isk making ventures in Eve that i reasonably can.

So, the aim with trading is to get to 10bn monthly income after buying the Plex to extend the Omega account.

That was achieved in December and again in January.  Not done in February.  That said, it looks like my inter-regional trading activities from Dodixie and Amarr do generate around 10bn per month after plex costs.

Not bad for 45 minutes a day.



Invention

More posts to come but i have decided to try my hand at invention - i decided in December but to be honest i got nowhere in February.

I need to look into it more to work out where to start.  I like the look of it: low click rate; looks like an inefficient market; so if it works out it would really be a low time consumption source of income - not quite passive, but close.

Lets see how it goes.


Reminder of my Current Business.

I operate with one account with three alts.

The main alt is a seller in Dodixie and the other alt is a seller in Amarr, two of the main trade hubs in Eve Online.

The third alt sits in Jita and buys from Sell Orders, has these items couriered to the alts in Dodixie and Amarr who then put them onto these markets for sale.

I focus on slow moving but high margin items.

For this side of my business, lets call it Merchanting or inter-regional trading, i want to generate income of 10bn isk per month after paying to Plex my account.


Analysis of Trading Profits

Explaining the journey of sales of 55.5bn to the increase in wealth of 8.4bn . . . . . 

In all, i made sales of 55.5bn isk (vs 70.6bn in January) which created income of 9.7bn (1.3bn was used to buy Plex, 8.4bn was invested back into the market or was sitting as isk in my wallet) vs 11.6bn in January.

Hence, sales fell 21% overall and are right back to November levels.  Looks like there was a strong Christmas effect this year.  My December sales were 78bn, so the 55bn in February is pretty quiet.

Dodixie sales were 38.3bn (vs 42.4bn in January) whilst Amarr sales were 17.2bn (vs 28.2bn in December).

So, Dodixie sales fell 10% whilst Amarr sales well 39%.  I do find Amarr very competitive but so far i believe it is better than Hek or Rens.  I am tempted to test that thesis out one day.


Purchases of items from Jita cost 39.8bn isk (vs 50.1bn in January), so my item margin was 28.3% ((55.6-39.8)/55.5) vs 29.0% in January.  Respectably above the 25% item margin target but down on the elevated 32.2% in November.

So, no problem on profitability but clearly a problem on sales.  Perhaps i am charging too much but i more got a sense that there was no demand at all rather than buyers backing off due to price.

I then need to take a whole series of costs off before i get to my Business profits:

Courier Fees: i aim to pay 2% of sales value to the Courier = 2% x 55.5 = 1.1bn

Sales tax cost me 1.5bn ISk (=2.7% of sales) - this is reducing as i am training both the characters to be level 5 in Accounting

Broker Fees costs me 3.4bn (=6.1% of sales).  Now, i can break this down into the initial listing fee of 3.78% (because i am Level 4 Broker Relations on both characters) and therefore the rest is the cost of changing the price which is 1.14% a shot.

So, i know the listing fee = 3.78% x 55.5 = 2.1bn and therefore the price change fee is 1.1bn (3.4 - 2.1). This 2.7bn is 2.4% of sales.  This is lower than January and reflects the quieter February for me and all my competitors.

This takes my 'Business Profits' to 9.7bn isk for February vs 11.6bn in January.  This is what 45 minutes a day in February gave me.

So, the post-tax margin is 28.0% - 2.0% - 2.7% - 3.8% - 2.4% = 17.5% (=9.7/55.5).

Fees and Taxes take 10.8% off my margins (2.0+2.7+3.8+2.4).  That is a big hit.  I can take action to reduce this which i may investigate in the medium term (needless to say, i did not get round to investigating this in January or February).

17.5% is respectable, i would normally aim to get a respectable 13 to 15%.  i can improve on it if i train Accounting and Broker Relations  / Advanced Broker Relations to level 5 . . . . . which i am now doing across the two characters . . . . .and which i have completed for the Dodixie character and am in progress with on the Amarr character.

And then from those 'Business Profits' i buy Plex for 1.3bn isk to extend the Omega by 30 days.

That, therefore, is the roadmap from making 70.6bn of sales and seeing my wealth increase by 8.4bn as a result.


Items i am selling in Dodixie and Amarr

I sell blueprints, skill books, implants and ship equipment.  I am starting to ramp up on implants and selling less blueprints.

I am trying to focus on items of higher value to keep the number of items for sale down and so make life easier.

But given the market were slow i still buy from Jita for 10m to sell for 35m.  These low items are easy money but don't really move the dials.

For blueprints and skill books i focus on items that are not seeded in Dodixie (or Amarr for the Amarr seller).  It is a nice source of sales, varying from 100m to a few billion on a really good day - players will pay up to avoid travelling to Jita to save isk to buy that blueprint or skillbook.  This has slowed down more recently with competitors willing to take very slim margins.

Implants are a new focus, and i am making good sales where especially with the ones costing over 300m isk.  The competition is lower.

Ship equipment makes up the rest, typically it is the same items each time though i find i make a few sales then need to let that item rest and the price reset upwards before i revisit.

Rigidly sticking to the 25% margin target.  I have to given courier fees and taxes take a whopping 12% of that to leave me with 13%.  This is the one line i can't really cross.  If i took the margin down to 20% then after costs i am looking at 8% profits which leaves no room to change prices too often!

The items i sell in Dodixie and Amarr are often very similar but not always.  They remain two distinct markets with Amarr being the most competitive.


Dodixie Seller character

This remains my main character and is the biggest seller.

I have now trained all the relevant skills to Level 5.

The skills relevant to Trading that i have are:

Accounting: Level 5; means i am charged 2.25% of the sales price on completed sale vs the normal 5%

Broker Relations: Level 5; means i am charged 3.49% to list an item for sale

Advanced Broker Relations: Level 5; means i can reduce the cost of changing the price of items i already have for sale. I decided by train this rather than go all for Plex.  With no skill i would be charged 1.89% to change every price.  Level 5 has brought this down to 0.94%.

Trade: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 4 per level.

Retail: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 8 per level

Wholesale: Level 5 (increased by two levels in January); increases the number of items i can list by 16 per level

Marketing: Level 3 (increased by one level in January); this allows me to set up Sell Orders in stations other than the one i am in; it also allowed me to look to increase my Contracting skills which i will need to sell my BPO copies from invention

Given the level 5 Trade, level 5 Retail and level 5 wholesale, i am able to post 145 items for sale (5 + (5x4) + (5x8) + (5x16)).  With no Trading skills you can post up to 5 sell orders

As i write this i am using 126 sales slots up.

I may have to train Tycoon which will give me an additional 32 slots per level.


Amarr Seller character

Started in November and has grown very quickly.  I gave my initial views in a prior post.

I am now training the relevant skills to Level 5.

The skills relevant to Trading that i have are:

Accounting: Level 4; means i am charged 2.80% of the sales price on completed sale vs the normal 5%

Broker Relations: Level 5; means i am charged 3.49% to list an item for sale

Advanced Broker Relations: Level 4; means i can reduce the cost of changing the price of items i already have for sale.th no skill i would be charged 1.89% to change every price.  Level 4 has brought this down to 1.1%.

Trade: Level 4; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 4 per level.

Retail: Level 5; increases the number of items i can list for sale by 8 per level

Wholesale: Level 2; increases the number of items i can list by 16 per level

Marketing: Level 2; this allows me to set up Sell Orders in stations other than the one i am in; i don't use this really

Given the level 4 Trade, level 5 Retail and Wholesale Level 2, i am able to post 93 items for sale (5 + (4x4) + (5x8) + (2x16).

As of right now, i have 57 items up for sale.

This market is much more competitive so it is harder to find items to make a good sale.


Courier Contracts

Each night, i get home from work and determine what i need to sell in Dodixie and Amarr.  I tend to focus on one location per night unless i need to courier over 1.5bn isk of items to both locations.  So Dodixie one night, Amarr the next.  Keeps my time on Eve to a manageable 45 minutes once i have added in a bit of looking into Invention.

To look up prices in Eve I am using Eve Tycoon which seems to have more of the latest items in its market browser.  I used to use evemarketer but i just got used to Eve Tycoon.

Each night i courier about 2 to 5bn isk of items from Jita.  The total cargo volume is 100-250m3 per shipment.  So small but valuable items.  But this allows the couriers to use small, fast ships with much less chance of being ganked.  So there is always someone willing to pick up the contract quickly.

I pay a generous 1.5 to 2.0% of collateral as fees.  I am more interested in getting my items onto the market quickly than penny pinching on distribution costs.

In early February, business was slow so i had items couriered once every two nights.  Since then business has been brisker and so missed nights is due to real life rather than slow trade.



Nothing, yet, todo with my Eve Business ventures but just noting that in December i set up a website site eveeconomy.com which takes the monthly economic data provided by CCP and visualises it in chart form.

Loads of charts and more i can add.

I need to work out how to render the charts faster - right now they are accessed from a google drive given that is the way i have worked out how to update multiple charts at once quickly.

Let me know what you think and what else i should add.



Outlook

March will have five aims to it.

1) Plex the account - aim number one all the time

2) Increase sales in Dodixie

3) Increase sales in Amarr

4) Undertake further research into Invention

5) Investigate reducing 'costs of sale'.


The daily sales in February averaged 1.98bn.

If i assume i need to make 10bn + 1.4bn income per month (=11.4bn) and i assume i can achieve 15.0% margin then i need to make monthly sales of 76bn and so daily sales of 2.5bn.

So far i have achieved this in December and January.


Current wealth is 46.6bn ISK made up from:
  • items in hanger for sale 0.6bn ISK
  • Buy orders on the market 0.2bn ISK
  • items for sale 49.6bn ISK
  • less a 20% provision 9.9bn ISK*
  • ISK in wallet 6.2bn ISK

When i add up my wealth, I don't count assets I use in the course of my business such as ships, fittings etc nor do I add back any expenses such as skills purchased etc.  The wealth I disclose is made up of items that are ISK or are in the process of being converted to ISK or are used to generate isk that can be readily resold back onto the market.  Any ships or skills or fittings etc i buy are counted as expenses in that month.

* I take a 20% provision against the items I am selling.  Eve calculates wealth by adding up the value of the sell orders hence it is possible to increase your wealth by buying an item for 100m ISK and putting a sell order for 120m ISK (in this case your wealth would increase by 20m ISK).  For me, I want my wealth to be calculated at cost.  I know that the value of my sell orders will likely fall over time as I update my orders downwards as competition reduces their prices before my items are sold.  Hence the 20% provision is my best guess as to what the maximum reduction I would need to make to my sell orders as a whole before they are sold.  In an ideal world I would value my sell orders at the value which I bought the items for.

Saturday, 27 February 2021

Markets picked up again

Since i wrote my post on 11 February commenting on the slow market, within a few days the market really picked up again.

I dont think this will be a great month for me but my sales over the last 2 weeks have been strong.

I was looking like i would only make 4.5bn isk in February which, after paying the 1.2bn for 500 plex to get the account to omega, would not leave me with much.

As i write this now, i will make at least 10bn isk which will more than cover the 1.2bn plex but wont allow me to make my 10bn isk target after paying for the plex.

Of course, i still have two more days but i have to take into account that on the final day i make sure all my market prices are the lowest available which can cost me up to 1bn isk in writedowns.

Looks like i will have to wait for March for my wealth to get to 50bn, from a standing start at the end of August 2020.  To be honest, it has been slower going than i thought.

Much like that post, i don't really have an explanation for either the slowdown or the pickup.

I am all ears for suggestions.

Saturday, 20 February 2021

What investors think about Eve Online with Pearl Abyss

Nosy Gamer did a good review on the Pearl Abyss Q4 results which came out on 16 February - so i want redo that review here.


What i want to do is talk about what the financial markets think specifically of Eve Online.

Many of the brokers that write about Pearl Abyss lump all of CCPs products into one line - which makes it harder to see what Eve Online is doing vs the other CCP products (such as Eve Echoes, launching into China etc).

Technically, the revenue expectations for Eve Online were reduced but this reflects the weakening US Dollar rather than anything else.  Eve Online is reported in Korean Won in the Pearl Abyss numbers so we need to remember the currency changes.

For those that do split out Eve Online, the expectations are that Eve Online had a better than expected 2020 (lockdowns helped all games) and then for a gentle decline in revenues over the next few years.

To put this in context, most investors are expecting existing games to see a decline in revenues when we come out of the lockdowns.  The question is how much of a decline.  However, once we have the initial decline, most investors are then expecting existing games to start growing again.

For Eve Online though investors are not expecting a noticeable pull back in 2021 but merely a gentle decline in 2021 and 2022.

This fits in with the narrative investors have about Eve Online - it is a very loyal player base though not really growing.  So merely seeing gentle attrition over time.

Otherwise, Eve Online is barely mentioned when investors talk about Pearl Abyss.  To me, this looks like everyone is assuming that peak revenues have been achieved and the aim is to hold onto these revenues or at least only allow a gentle decline.

It seems that the value in CCP to Pearl Abyss is the new product launches (Eve Echoes Global, Eve Online into China) and more access to the western market rather than growing the current Eve Online.


Other items of note

The Pearl Abyss presentations do mention that 80% of the player base of Eve Online originated from cohorts prior to 2018.  i.e. of the players around at the end of 2017, 80% of them are still around today and therefore the rest of the players today have joined in 2018-2020.

Thursday, 18 February 2021

Eve Economy Website updated for January 2021 monthly data

The Eve Economy website has been updated for the January 2021 monthly economic data which was just released by ccp

The site takes the monthly economic data for Eve Online provided by CCP and puts it all together in charts so that we may get a better understanding about the economy of Eve.

The pdf chartbook on the home page has 241 slides covering all the charts:
  • Section 1: Daily data from 2012 onwards
  • Section 2: Wealth in the Eve Economy
  • Section 3: Top level Regional Data
  • Section 4: Discrepancy charts - showing that the daily data is not reconciling with the monthly Regional data
  • Section 5: Regional data for each region from 2016 onwards
  • Section 6: Faucets and Sinks
  • Section 7: Discontinued Sinks and Faucets
  • Section 8: Economic Indices
  • Section 9: Interesting observations
  • Section 10: State of PVP
  • Section 11: State of PVP by Region

The chart pack looks at each and every region, including regions that have been and gone.


Quick Summary

I will take a closer look in over the next few days but the main items of note i can see are:

1) The large battle data from the end of 2020 is in the January data.  So, this is where we see the almost 200 Titans destroyed.



2) Largest month on record for destruction and only the fifth month on record where destruction exceeded NPC Bounties, and only the sixth month on record where destruction exceeded production.





3) Long term down trend in Trade, Mining and Production continues though each was up on December.

4) Overall ISK coming into the game was around average but overall ISK leaving the game (before counting players leaving or banned) was at record levels of 87 trillion (vs 74 trillion in December)



















This was due to an increase in: Merchant Sinks across the range of Transaction Taxes and Broker Listing Fees; Player Sinks due to an increase in Insurance taken out; and the largest individual item was the Structure Module fee which we expected due to the January deadline.

5) NPC Bounties remained at record lows whilst Commodity Sales remained at record highs with Incursion ISK hitting new highs.



















6) Hek and Rens are establishing a rising trend in Trade vs Dodixie which remains flat.