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Thursday 22 February 2024

The latest Platinum Starter Pack deal on the New Eden Store is a winner

As detailed in the New Eden News there is a range of new Starter Packs for a limited time.

The summary of the below: means that for a 10bn outlay you are either getting 500k skill points and 2 MCTs for free or you are getting 90 days Omega at half price.

Each starter pack can only be purchased once per Account but they are new - hence, if you purchased a Platinum Start Pack a few months ago you can still now purchase this one.


What do you get?

For the Platinum Pack, it costs 2000 Plex and you get:
  • 90 days Omega
  • 2 x MCT Certificates
  • Specialist 'Boost' Cerebral Accelerator
  • 500,000 Skill Points
  • 10 x Skill Extractor
  • Golem State Police SKIN
  • Paladin Imperial Jubilee SKIN
  • Leshak Metamateria Exotica SKIN
  • Vargur Yoiul Star SKIN
  • Kronos Caille Neon SKIN
  • Charon Vitalshift EGO SKIN
  • Orca Capsuleer Elite XIX SKIN

It is not as good a deal as the Platinum Pack deal in November where the Pack costs 1500 Plex and you got 650k Skill Points but it still makes sense.

Lets ignore the skins and focus on the rest.

I Omega my accounts so any deal that allows me to buy Omega at or below market prices and get something for free gets my attention.


Alternative 1

The cost of 2000 Plex at 5m isk per Plex is 10bn.

90 days Omega currently costs 1200 on the New Eden Store, which would cost 6bn isk today.

If you chose to sell the 10 Skill Extractors right now to Buy Orders in Jita you would get 10 x 467m x (1-3.6%) =  4.5bn isk after taxes.

Hence, the 90 days Omega + the 10 Skill Extractors comes to 10.5bn isk vs the 10bn isk cost to buy the Pack . . . . . . which means  the 500k Skill Points and 2 Multiple Character Training Certificates are in for free


Alternative 2

The cost of 2000 Plex at 5m isk per Plex is 10bn.

if my characters earn 37.5 skill points per minute then over 30 days my 2 characters that use the MCTs will earn 37.5 x 60 x 24 x 30 x 2 = 3.2m.  Add in the 500k skill points also given = 3.7m extra skill points.  That requires 7 Skill Extractors to convert those to 7 Large Skill Injectors and then leaves me with 3 remaining Skill Extractors.

If i sold those Skill Injectors and Extractors to Jita Buy Orders today i would get (7x838x(1-3.6%)) + (3x467x(1-3.6%)) = 7bn isk after taxes.

That therefore means i would be getting 90 day Omege for 3 bn isk vs the normal price of 6bn isk.  So 90 day omega at half price.


Alternative 3

This one is for old characters that are in alpha status but can still achieve 37.5 skill point per minute when put into Omega Status.

Fire these characters back up again, apply the 3 month Omega and 2 MCTs and you effectively get 5 months of Skill Farming = 5 x 37.5 x 60 x 24 x 30 = 8.1m skill points.  Actually you get (4.9m + 1.6m + 1.6m over the 3 characters in the Account).  Add in the 500k Skill points to change that to 5.0m + 2.0m + 1.6m.

That takes 17 Skill Extractors to create 17 Large Skill Injectors.  Therefore you would need to buy 7 Skill Extractors from Jita Sell Orders

Selling those to Buy Orders in Jita gets ((17x838x(1-3.6%)) - (7x492) = 10.3bn

So, at 37.5 skill points per minute there is a very small 300m profit to be made.

If you were maxed out you could achieve 45 skill points a minute which means you make 20 Skill injectors and need 10 Skill extractors = 11.2bn isk, or a 1.2bn isk profit.


Outcome

I bought the starter pack for each of my four Omega accounts.  I am likely to take the Alternative 2 route.  So 40bn outlay will generate me 28bn isk from Skill Farming and means i would have bought my normal 3 month Omega for all four Accounts for 12 bn instead of 24 bn isk.

Friday 16 February 2024

Pearl Abyss Q4 2023 earnings call

Pearl Abyss, the parent company of CCP, had its Q4 results on Thursday 15 February.

The earnings call transcript is at the bottom of this post.

To us we are interested in what they are saying about EVE Online.

To everyone else Pearl Abyss is a South Korean game developer known mostly for Black Desert Online which is the most successful Korean massively multiplayer online role-playing game outside of Korea.

In recent times the company has been pushing back the launch date of its new games (Crimson Desert and DokeV) whilst at the same time its existing games are facing revenue pressures and the costs are seeing inflationary pressures.

On the day of these results, the shares rose 6% which I suspect reflects a launch into China for their main game Black Dessert Online, so that’s near term additional revenues, and their new game Crimson Desert being close to completion.


Overall Results
 



Its Q4 results saw ongoing declining revenues and an operating profit loss.

Revenues fell 18% to 84 billion Won vs Q4 2022 (always best to compare to a year ago rather than the last quarter to iron out seasonal effects) which was a bit less than what was expected due to lower than expected Black Desert Online revenues.

Black Desert Online revenues fell 16% vs Q4 2022 to 60 billion Won.

Eve Online revenues (includes mobile) rose 15% vs Q4 2023 to 20 billion Won.

On costs: labour fell 5% to 41 billion Won with staff numbers down 9% to 1,324 (developers are 58% of all employees); Commissions fell 12% to 17 billion Won; Marketing fell 36% to 8 billion Won.

Pearl Abyss Capital (which I have never really understood what it does) had a 6 billion Won impairment charge.

The Operating Loss of 5 billion Won was higher than expected.

For Black Desert Online, management believe that their efforts in 2023 to make it easier for new players and new content added is having a positive effect citing at 17% rise in actual PC sales in Q4 and 13% rise in annual PC sales.

Management not really telling us when Crimson Desert will be launched though did say that the game test would be in the summer.  Saying that game development is almost completed and now working on polishing it out.

The market is starting to think that the Q1 2025 launch date is under threat.

There are also question marks on the Black Desert Online China launch.  The closed beta test has been done.  Awaiting a Chinese license (to launch games in China you now need a license).  However, the mobile version did not do well in China when launched.

Putting all this together, the market is reducing its profit expectation for Pearl Abyss for 2024 and increasing expectations for 2025.


Eve Online / CCP in general

This is what we are interested in.

Mentioned once by the analysts that cover Pearl Abyss.  
However, management talked about Eve Online a lot more in the call than before and expanded more in the Q&A section.

On revenues, it was better than expected.  Question marks remain over profits and i suspect we are not quite there yet - we will learn more when we get the full year Accounts in May.

Much more focus given on the call to the health of Eve Online and to new launches based off he Eve Online IP.

Revenues in Q4 2023 were 19.9 billon Won vs 17.3 billion Won in Q4 2022, a rise of 15%.  Best to compare to a year ago rather than the prior quarter to iron out any season effects.

. . . . . and that is literally all the numbers data on Eve given in the presentation slides.

To me, that was a surprising positive.  Not sure what i was expecting but probably not a 15% rise.  It has to be player volume related, the Eve Game price went up in May 2022 and so is long gone as a driver of revenues in our case here.

In the call, in answer to a question, management did hope that Eve will be making profits in 2024 which suggest 2023 was still in losses or at best low profits.

Until now, our CCP game has been servicing EVE Online and also has been developing games based on the EVE IP. From this year, there will be consecutive launchings of the games that have been developed, that have been in development and we have expectations that this will be a year where we can make profits.

The good news is that all this was better than what the market expected and so the analysts are pushing up their CCP revenue expectations for 2024 from 70 billion Won of revenue to 74 billion, a 6% increase.

In the call, management highlighted the 20 year length of the game (vs Black Desert at 9) and the CCP management working to attract new players by making it more convention and adding new missions for new players.

The Call mentioned the Havoc launch and Vanguard having its first play test in Q4.

Management noted that these efforts led to the highest numbers of EVE daily concurrent users in November during the past five years based on the same dates, and the daily revenues also recorded the highest peak during the past five years.

For CCP generally, the management are focusing on costs (closing down the Canadian studio, moving the London office to a lower cost location, reviewing their marketing suppliers).

And for CCP focusing on the global launch of EVE Galaxy Conquest this year, which is a casual mobile game.  
Soft launching the mobile game EVE Galaxy Conquest in some regions.

And plan to showcase Project Awakening within the first half of this year, following a recent confidential test.

There was a comment that may be nothing or very interesting (I added bold for effect):

“In addition, in the case of EVE Vanguard, which was already introduced and tested, we, through continuous development and content updates, plan to not only lengthen more time for user enjoyment, but also are considering a proprietary business model line.”



Earnings Call Transcript

Company Participants
Heo, Jin-young
Joh Seokwoo, CFO
Kim Geong Man, CBO

Operator
(Foreign Language) Good morning, and good evening. First of all, thank you all for joining this Conference Call. And now we will begin the conference out of Fiscal Year 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Results by Pearl Abyss. This conference call will start with the presentation, followed by a divisional Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Now we shall commence the Presentation on the Fiscal Year 2023, Fourth Quarter Earnings Results by Pearl Abyss.

Kim Geong
(Foreign Language) Greetings. I am Kim Geong from Pearl Abyss IR team. First of all, I express my deepest gratitude to the analysts and investors in and out of Korea for taking part in the 2023 Q4 and full year Pearl Abyss earnings presentation despite your busy schedule.

(Foreign Language) Before elaborating on today's business results, I would like to ask for your understanding regarding the following. The financial and business results contained in today's earnings release have been prepared for the convenience of investors and is subject to change depending on the final closing of our books. In addition, the accuracy and completeness of the financial and business results in the earnings results material are not guaranteed and the company is not obliged to give updates of the accounts given after the state, so please take these factors into consideration.

(Foreign Language) We have here with us at the earnings presentation today, Pearl Abyss CEO, Heo Jin-Young, CBO, Kim Geong Man, and CFO, Joh Seokwoo. We will first hear the business performance presentation highlights from CFO, Joh Seokwoo and then engage in a Q&A session.

Joh Seokwoo
(Foreign Language) Greetings. I am Pearl Abyss CFO, Joh Seokwoo. Thank you once again for taking part in our company's earnings conference call despite your busy schedules.

(Foreign Language) I would like to first cover the 2023 overview. The game industry in 2023 on the whole went through challenges due to the reopening after the end of the pandemic. In this situation, we made significant changes to our live service, made management more efficient, and implemented new pipeline investment. Black Desert implemented diverse changes with nine years of service. We changed and reinforced many outdated contents, which were more enjoyable in the past, but not anymore. Through diverse patches for user convenience and new user support, we tried hard to lower awareness that this was a game with a high entry barrier. In addition, we introduced new characters with new concepts that we did not attempt before and also introduced diverse character costumes, from oriental costumes to modern costumes.

Moreover, through the land of the Morning Light update, which had a Korean ambiance that was not attempted in the past, many users were able to experience a new landscape. Land of the Morning Light also changed the gameplay style and introduced a console type of raid combat, that was quite refreshing. In Q4 as well, we have been continuing these efforts through new class scholar updates and continuous convenience patches for our users. For consoles, we have also been overcoming many limitations, which occurred due to the console or console device limitations through technical enhancements, and have worked hard to provide joy of playing on a similar level to the PC version. Through these efforts, excluding the accounting deferral, we are seeing a solid revenue upward trend, including 17% Y-o-Y increase in Black Desert PC Q4 actual sales, and also 13% Y-o-Y increase in the annual total Black Desert PC actual sales as well.

EVE Online also implemented diverse changes with 20 years of service. We continuously work hard to attract new users not only by implementing diverse devices in order to improve the game's convenience to users, but also gave many missions so that new users can easily adjust. The havoc expansion pack which improved new contents and diverse game environments with a new battle system which breaks away from the existing framework and an interesting storyline provided immersive experiences to users that were playing. In addition, EVE Vanguard, which was developed as EVE online based FPS with the 20th anniversary of EVE, had the first play test in Q4. It was able to appeal to the gamers who were waiting for SF and EVE based FPS and attracted many returning users.

These efforts led to the highest numbers of EVE daily concurrent users in November during the past five years based on the same dates, and the daily revenues also recorded the highest peak during the past five years, leading to firm financial performance. Under the robust basis of live service, we continued investment in new IP and new titles. Crimson desert, through many demos for partners and media, is predicting the possibility of success. We are receiving many favorable reviews through actual demos and internally, we are confident that we can achieve significant results. In addition, through reflecting the abundant feedback that we have received, we are heightening our possibility of the game's success. After showcasing the mobile casual game, EVE Galaxy Conquest, which was made by utilizing EVE IP by the CCP of Shanghai office at the EVE fan fest in Q4, we have been implementing actual live tests in some regions through soft launching.

(Foreign Language) Next, I would like to walk you through our 2023 full year and Q4 operating performance. 2023 operating revenue posted KRW333.5 billion, decreasing 13.5% Y-o-Y. Operating loss posted KRW16.4 billion and turned to loss. Net profit posted KRW15.4 billion and turned to profit Y-o-Y. Q4 operating revenue posted KRW84.4 billion, decreased 0.6% Q-o-Q and operating loss and net loss each posted KRW5.5 billion and KRW4.4 billion and turned to loss, respectively.

(Foreign Language) I would like to explain in more detail regarding operating revenue in Q4. First, I will cover operating revenue for major IPs. Operating revenue for black desert IP in this quarter posted KRW60.1 billion, a 12% decrease Q-o-Q. Eve IP operating revenue posted KRW19.9 billion, an increased 24% Q-o-Q. In case of operating revenue by region, it posted 21% domestically 20% in Asia and 59% in North America and Europe. In case of operating revenue by platform, 83% was for PC, 12% for mobile and 5% for consoles.

(Foreign Language) I would now like to elaborate on operating expenses for Q4. Q4 operating expenses posted KRW89.9 billion, a 8.6% increase Q-o-Q. In case of labor expenses, it posted KRW40.6 billion and maintained the level of the previous quarter. For your reference, the numbers of employees as of NQ4 are 1324, and there are 765 developers, which is 58% of the total. In case of commissions, it posted KRW17.4 billion, a 21.4% increase Q-o-Q. In case of advertising, through efficient implementation of Cybers user events and banquets, we were able to post KRW8.1 billion, a 19.6% decrease Q-o-Q

(Foreign Language) Lastly, I would like to cover 2024 major highlights.

(Foreign Language) We plan to continue our performance through Black Desert and EVE's continuous changes and at the same time, improve profitability through efficient company operations. At the same time, we plan to focus intensively for successful launching of our new IP. For Black Desert, we will work to make an environment which is newer and can provide more enjoyable environments. In Q1, we are newly reorganizing PvP content through Guild League that you can enjoy 15 to 15, and through updates of siege wars with new rules. In addition, we are continuing to update user convenience improvements, that we have been doing from last year to promote the influx of new and returning users, and we plan to help them stay and settle.

In addition, we plan to accelerate the development of Land of the Morning Light Part Two, which was indeed very beloved. We will support also next generation console devices and we're working hard so that we can go beyond the limitation of existing devices, so more contents can be enjoyed on the console platform. We also have heightened expectations for China game license for Black Desert Chinese service, which recently had confidential tests. We are working with our publishing partner thoroughly, so that fast results can be derived when official service begins. EVE IP also is continuously changing. We are preparing for two new expansion packs for EVE Online. In particular, for these expansion packs, we plan to introduce user generated contents where users can directly generate contents, and we're preparing so that users can enjoy games in more diverse ways.

In addition, in the case of EVE Vanguard, which was already introduced and tested, we, through continuous development and content updates, plan to not only lengthen more time for user enjoyment, but also are considering a proprietary business model line. At the same time, we will work hard to improve the company's income through efficient operations. After closing down factorial games last year, we have our Canada studio, which is also closing down, which was preparing for indie game this year, and we're working hard to improve our company's cost structure. In addition, we will find areas and make improvements so that day-to-day costs can be efficiently saved, including changing the CCP London office location, so that more efficient work can be done in a bigger and more reasonably priced space. In case of marketing costs, we will also work with diverse partners so that our financial burden does not increase.

We plan to prepare to secure new pipelines. We plan to have the global launching of EVE Galaxy Conquest this year, which is a casual mobile game which meets the recent trends by improving based on the feedback, which came in during the soft launching period. In addition, we plan to showcase project awakening within the first half of this year, that we recently had confidential test for. We expect that these new projects will enhance the profitability of EVE IP based games, which have high loyalty. Most of all for a crimson desert, we will increase the possibility of success by expanding our contact points, including through user demos at diverse events in 2024.

In addition, since the development is being completed, we are considering appropriate launching time and we will prepare, so that we can have significant results, considering that you have been waiting for a long time. With stable service of live service, we made many preparations to create new IP. The global game market competition has heightened. Regulations for the labor market and game market has become more strengthened and it has become more challenging to secure developers than before. We are fully aware that many investors are concerned, since the preparation time has become longer than expected. We believe that in 2024, we will showcase and launch new titles that we had been preparing so far, and that this will be a year when we will significantly leap forward.

Utilizing ten years of Black Desert service and 20 years of EVE service know how, we will do our best so that our new titles will also be loved for a long time by many people. We will look forward to your continued interest and support. Thank you.

Unidentified Speaker
(Foreign Language) With this, we will conclude the Pearl Abyss 2023 Q4 and full year earnings release and start the Q&A session.

Questions And Answers
Operator
(Foreign Language) (Operator Instructions)

(Foreign Language) The first question will be presented by (inaudible) from Kiwoom Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Q - Unidentified Participant
(Foreign Language) Thank you very much for the opportunity. I am (inaudible) from Kiwoom Securities and I have three questions. First, I would like to know in more detail about all the information that you can disclose about Crimson Desert, that you can't disclose to the market. Secondly, I would like to know about your top line gross goals for Black Desert. And third, if you have any new titles that you are planning to launch this year, I would like to know about them. Thank you.

A - Heo
(Foreign Language) Thank you very much for your question. For Crimson Desert, since we are developing it for single play, we are concentrating on heightening our optimization and completeness and are making our final touches. It has very vast contents and a very free playing area or a free degree of freedom, so it has taken a little more time than expected. However, currently, the development is very smoothly being done and we are making great progress in our finishing touches.

(Foreign Language) In addition, based on the feedback that we had actually acquired from many partners for the past year or so, we have been actually completing the game playing experiences continuously and we believe that now, we are at the level of quality that we had targeted. Accordingly, regarding the Crimson Desert demos that we had for our partners until now, we plan to actually expand them to B2C from this summer and start our full fledged marketing.

(Foreign Language) Regarding our launching period, we will start our full fledged marketing from the second half of this year, and we will heighten it until the end of this year, as we are currently planning. We know that you have been waiting for a long time and we also have been thoroughly making preparations for a long time. So we will do our best for a successful launch till the end.

(Foreign Language) Regarding more details about our launching period. In the process of our marketing within this year, we will do our best, so that we can give you more detailed schedule as time progresses.

(Foreign Language) Development time is taking a little more than expected, but all the people in our development team are doing their best in the environment that we're given for this long period of time. We are also truly wanting to launch as quickly as possible and we are focusing on our finishing touches intensively, so that we will do our best, so that we can come up with satisfactory results, and we will ask for the kind understanding from our investors as well.

(Foreign Language) I will answer your question about Black Desert. Regarding our 2024 forecast for Black Desert, we have been celebrating the 10th year and we will do our best so that we can reaffirm our basics, and also come up with some changes with the know how that we had accumulated for the past 10 years. We will go through full fledged changes, so that we can provide more enjoyment to our global users. First of all, during the last year, we know that Land of the Morning Light was very popular and we are currently preparing for Land of the Morning Light Part Two Seoul. And apart from this, we plan to add many diverse new contents, so that we can continue with our consistent performance.

A - Kim Geong Man
(Foreign Language) To answer your questions about new titles for this year. Well, our company has been concentrating our efforts on developing Crimson Desert and also CCP gains has been doing very well. And they have been well maintaining their live service so far. And in order to secure new growth engines, have been developing EVE IP based new titles.

(Foreign Language) We are also seeing the new titles, new title development that is being completed. And from Q4 of last year, with the open test of EVE Vanguard, we have had the soft launching of EVE Galaxy Conquest. So we are making preparations for the launching in 2024.

(Foreign Language) And you can see that for EVE Vanguard, it is like the sister program of EVE. And for EVE Galaxy Conquest, we plan to have global launching within this year.

(Foreign Language) Apart from this, for the new blockchain project, we have actually received a lot of feedback, because we had countless tests in the previous year and we have been actually reflecting these feedbacks to our games, and we are also planning to showcase or disclose this game within this year as well.

(Foreign Language) Until now, our CCP game has been servicing EVE Online and also has been developing games based on the EVE IP. From this year, there will be consecutive launchings of the games that have been developed, that have been in development and we have expectations that this will be a year where we can make profits.

(Foreign Language) In addition, because we have high expectations that we can receive Black Desert online Chinese game license within this year, if we do, we plan to launch this within this year as well.

Operator
(Foreign Language) It was our CEO, Heo Jin-Young and CBO, Kim Geong Man, who answered your questions. (Operator Instructions)

(Foreign Language) It seems that we have no questions on the line, so we will conclude Pearl Abyss 2023 Q4 and full year earnings release. Thank you for listening.

Tuesday 13 February 2024

How could Banking work with minimal adjustments to current game mechanics?

At its core, a traditional Bank is a business that takes in money from Depositors and lends that money out to Borrowers in exchange for some collateral to cover the loan.  So thinking mortgages here.

The revenues of the Bank is the interest rate it charges the Borrowers and the costs are the interest rate it pays to Depositors and any loans it has made that go bad (the Borrower is unable to pay and so the loan is written off) less the collateral that becomes the property of the Bank.

Get the collateral right and the cost of loans going bad is very small to none at all.


How could this work with current game mechanics?

The current Contracting systems gets us almost there.

To make a loan i would want to give isk to a Borrower for a set number of days in return for Collateral.  If the Loan + Interest was repaid within x days then the Borrower gets the Collateral back.

That is a contract within a contract - see the example below.

All we need to be able to do is put contracts within contracts, and then we are there.  And more.


An example

Lets assume i was lending out 1 billion isk for 4 months and charging 100m interest.  And i chose to accept a Procurer Blueprint as Collateral (base value 1.4bn isk).

The way this would work is to create the contracts in reverse.

I would first create a contract to give the Borrower a Procurer Blueprint in exchange for 1.1bn isk with a time limit of 4 weeks.  So a sort of Courier Contract with no distance travelled.  But this contract would not be immediately given to the Borrower, it would be part of the next contract.

I would then create a contract to give the Borrower 1bn Isk and the above contract in exchange for an Procurer Blueprint.  So a simple exchange contract.

So, on day 1 the Borrower gets 1bn isk from me and a contract to pay me 1.1bn isk in exchange for the Procurer Blueprint, and i get a Procurer Blueprint .

The Borrower then has the option of paying me 1.1bn isk within 4 weeks and getting the Procurer Blueprint back or defaulting in which case i get the Procurer Blueprint.

I cant run off with the Blueprint because i have given a courier type contract to return it - so it will effectively be held in escrow.

This is an example of secured lending, like a mortgage.


How would the deposits work?

In the same way, the depositor gives me isk in exchange for some collateral and a contract from me to repay the isk + interest in exchange for the collateral within a certain time.


What is the underlying truth that makes this work?

The assumption here is that the Borrower and Bank have plenty of assets sitting around unused which they are willing to use as collateral and that the Bank has surplus isk available to fund any Depositors wanting isk back before new depositors come in.

In this situation, if things go wrong then assets start changing hands and the Depositors and / or Banks are left with lots of Collateral items rather than their isk + interest.


Where would this lead?

Get the ability to put contracts within contracts and you get the ability to have Futures and Options, and therefore the ability to go short items


Saturday 10 February 2024

Month end update - January 2024

I made 71bn profits in January 2024.  There was no Oz Tank Show and so no distributions were made.  Therefore my wealth rose by the 71bn to 1.248 trillion isk.


Distributions

These days, the aim is to distribute my profits to the Oz Tank Show or other ventures.  Watching numbers go up once i got to a trillion wealth is somewhat boring.  Hence, my wealth will barely increase and any monthly surplus will all be given away at some point.

So far i have given 260bn isk to the Oz Tank Show.

The show started in July and i have generated profits of 384bn in the July - December period and distributed 260bn.


Four Omega Accounts to pay for

Keeping 4 accounts on Omega cost me 7.0bn isk in December - that is as a result of taking advantage of the Omega / Plex deals when they come along every 2 months or so.


The basic numbers

In January i had sales of 401bn isk vs December of 289bn.  So a good increase of 39%.  January was a buoyant month from start to finish.

Item profits were 117bn isk which is a healthy margin of 39% (117/401).  So, again, profitability is good.  Much better than the 25% target i set.

The key output point here is that to go profits i need to grow sales.  The profitability i make is good.

Taxes and Courier fees came to 39bn isk.  That takes the Trading Profits to 78bn isk and so a trading margin of 19.4% (78/401) which is better than the 15% i target.

Then add in the 7bn plex cost to Omega 4 accounts takes me to 71bn profits made in January.


What is needed to get wealth to rise b 100bn in a month?

Average Sales per Day was 13bn isk and Average increase in daily wealth was 2.5bn isk (2.3bn after omega costs).

To get 100bn isk of an increase in wealth before distributions i would need to make daily sales of 18bn isk.


What i am selling

No change here.  Same as usual - Implants, Blueprints, ship equipment.

I have a rule that the minimum profits have to be 100m isk.  It is no use me buying items for 5m to sell them for 15m.  The profitability may be great but that won't move the dials.  That said, it is surprising how many items i can buy for 120m from Jita Sell Orders and sell for 220m in the other trading hubs.  At that isk level, players re-equipping don't care about spending an additional 100m isk to save time.

Blueprints are doing better.  They are by far the slowest item i sell and the most common i need to update to avoid them being taken off the Sell Order after 90 days of being unchanged.

Implants are doing well though there is becoming a general shortage of some like the Harvest Blueprint.  As a rule, the niche mining equipment items are in general short supply which i believe reflects rising demand from new / returning players whilst supply takes a while to catch up.

Ship Equipment is ok though nothing to write home about.


Where is it all selling?

For the first time Hek was the best sales location doing 63bn isk of sales.  That is a massive rise of 187% on the 22bn sales in January.  I doubt i will repeat that in February.

Dodixie and Amarr both did around 60bn with Jita close at 59bn.

Overall, all the Omega Trade hubs showed sales rising nicely except Dodixie which was flat and Alenetene which was down 15%.

The secondary Trade hubs (Alenetene + Arnon and Sobaseki + Tash Murkon) continue to justify being Omega status with estimated profits before Plex of 6bn and 14bn respectively.


Manufacturing

I do this opportunistically and i don't keep track of it.  I don't (yet) do it systematically but i need to get a grip.  I am sure there are many items i sell in the Trade Hubs that i could manufacture in Jita and so get a better in price vs buying them from Jita Sell Orders.


Planetary Interaction

Started this up again to remind me how it works.  Following the changes to volumes, i can keep my planets going for a long time before i need to pick anything up.

The ultimate aim is to do this in low or null sec.


Research

I am experimenting with this to see if i can get it off the ground.  The idea comes from a video by Strange Net where he discusses how he makes money from BPOs.  It requires the use of the Contract Market which i am not a fan of.

Most of my Omega Characters can do this - so that's 12 Characters i could throw into this.


Station Trading

All in Jita.  This is going ok.  Picked up in January to 59bn isk of sales which is healthy levels.

I still really need to ramp this up but again i don't yet have a systematic way of going about it.  Similar story to Manufacturing.

My idea of station trading is not buying items when they look cheap.  For me, station trading is about sticking to the slow moving items and quite often i am the only person in Jita trying to sell an item.  Almost always Selling for over 1bn isk.


Alpha Accounts

They have all now stopped trading.  Other than Arnon and Alentene, all the other locations show little promise at this stage.  I will keep them on but they will be dormant for now.


Current Wealth

Current wealth is 1.25 trillion ISK made up from:
  • Plex held as an investment 0bn ISK
  • Items in hanger for sale 35bn ISK
  • Items in hanger for use in business 11bn ISK
  • Omega brought forward 28bn ISK
  • Buy orders on the market 18bn ISK
  • items for sale 1.35 trillion ISK
  • less a 20% provision 271bn ISK*
  • ISK in wallet 73bn ISK

When i add up my wealth, I don't count assets I use in the course of my business such as ships, fittings etc nor do I add back any expenses such as skills purchased etc.  The wealth I disclose is made up of items that are ISK or are in the process of being converted to ISK or are used to generate isk that can be readily resold back onto the market.  Any ships or skills or fittings etc i buy are counted as expenses in that month.  The only exception to this rule is Blueprint Originals i use for manufacturing.  They are held at cost.

* I take a 20% provision against the items I am selling.  Eve calculates wealth by adding up the value of the sell orders hence it is possible to increase your wealth by buying an item for 100m ISK and putting a sell order for 120m ISK (in this case your wealth would increase by 20m ISK).  For me, I want my wealth to be calculated at cost.  I know that the value of my sell orders will likely fall over time as I update my orders downwards as competition reduces their prices before my items are sold.  Hence the 20% provision is my best guess as to what the maximum reduction I would need to make to my sell orders as a whole before they are sold.  In an ideal world I would value my sell orders at the value which I bought the items for.

Friday 5 January 2024

2023 Wealth, Sales, Profits and distributions. Trillionaire.

For 2023 i generated profits after all costs of 702 billion isk and from that i paid out 261 billion isk to the Oz Tank Show (well, 1 billion went to another twitch show dangerous_d666).

Therefore, my wealth rose by 441 billion isk from 736 billion isk to 1.2 trillion isk.

So on 2023 i became a trillionaire.


The Basic Numbers

I made sales of 4.0 trillion isk which generated profits of 1.2 trillion isk.  So a nice profit margin of 29.7% and therefore ahead of the 25% i target.

Sales tax of 140 billion + Broker listing fees 60bn + Broker relisting fees 96 billion + courier fees 85bn + Manufacturing taxes 6 billion meant the costs of doing business were 387 billion isk.

Therefore, the profits from by business were 808 billion isk which is a nice 20% margin and higher than the 15% i target.

From which i spent 94 billion on Omega (either directly via plex or through New Eden Store deals) and other costs of 12 billion (moving trading locations when player stations in high sec got nailed and implants for some of the Omega alts).

That therefore left me with profits of 702 billion isk.


Charts

The first chart shows how my wealth has increased since i started on that say in August 2020.  Rising nicely before flattening around July 2023 which is when i started giving my monthly profits to the Oz Tank Show.














That said, there is no hiding the fact that my monthly profits are now actually starting to be below last year.  In September and November 2023 my monthly profits before making any distributions were below the same months in 2022.  The only reason October and December 2023 were higher than the same months in 2022 was due to skill farming on the back of a couple of MCT deals in the New Eden Store.













In part this is due to a decline in average daily sales since around November 2022.  Seems the markets i operate in are just getting quieter - or maybe they are super normal busy at the end of 2022.













And this is reflected in my average daily profits (before distributions) which used to be over 2 billion isk per day but had fallen back to almost 1 billion isk by November 2023.  The spikes in October 2023 and December 2023 are due to the skill farming mentioned above.













I am hoping my average daily profits will stick around 1.5 billion isk.


A few more metrics

Asset turnover, which measures the proportion of assets that were sold in the year, was 5.5x.  In other words, over 2023 i sold all the asset i had up for sale on 1 January 2023 over 5 times.

My profit margin was 20.1% (thats profits before Omega and distribution costs) which means the Return on Capital Employed was 110% which is huge compared to real life companies.

Taking the Omega costs out pulls the Return on Capital Employed to 95% which is still huge.

The large Return on Capital Employed reflects the fact that i need very little additional assets to make my business work.  I don't need factories, stations or ships.  I use NPC stations and third party couriers transport my items.  The only assets i need are the items to sell themselves.

This is a high margin, asset light business with a good asset turnover.  What is not to like?

Thursday 4 January 2024

Month end update - December 2023

I made 75bn profits in December 2023.  There was no Oz Tank Show and so no distributions were made.  Therefore my wealth rose by the 75bn to 1.177 trillion isk.


Distributions

These days, the aim is to distribute my profits to the Oz Tank Show.  Hence, my wealth will barely increase and any monthly surplus will all be given away at some point.

So far i have given 260bn isk to the Oz Tank Show.

The no-show in December has allowed my profits to catch up with the distributions.

The show started in July and i have generated profits of 313bn in the July - December period and distributed 260bn.


Four Omega Accounts to pay for

Keeping 4 accounts on Omega cost me 7.0bn isk in December - that is as a result of taking advantage of the Omega / Plex deals when they come along every 2 months or so.


75bn profit can be divided into two buckets = 30bn + 45bn

Skill Farming: at the start of December i took advantage of the Platinum Starter Pack offer.  For 1501 plex it gave 3 months Omega (normal cost 1200 plex) + 10 skill extractors + 2 Multiple Training Certificates + 650k skill points.  A great deal.  I now have 30 Large Skill Injectors + 11 Skill Instractors left over = 31 bn isk of value less the 301 additional plex it cost to access this (=301x5 = 1.5bn isk).  I have not sold any - so these are sitting in assets.  But that is 31bn of wealth that is one-off less 1.5bn cost to access it.

Normal Trading: therefore, the normal trading profit was 45bn isk (75-(31-1.5)).  If i strip out the Omega costs of 7bn then my normal trading profit comes to 1.7bn isk per day (45+7)/31.  That is getting better though not back at the levels it was from September 2022 to July 2023.


The basic numbers

In December i had sales of 289bn isk vs November of 219bn.  So a good increase of 32% which really took off in the final two weeks of the month.

Item profits were 111bn isk which is a healthy margin of 38% (111/289).  So, again, profitability is good.  Much better than the 25% target i set.  It is sales i need to improve.

Taxes and Courier fees came to 28bn isk.  Then add in the 7bn plex cost to Omega 4 accounts takes me to 75bn profits made in December.


What i am selling

Same as usual - Implants, Blueprints, ship equipment.

I have a rule that the minimum profits have to be 100m isk.  It is no use me buying items for 5m to sell them for 15m.  The profitability may be great but that won't move the dials.  That said, it is surprising how many items i can buy for 120m from Jita Sell Orders and sell for 220m in the other trading hubs.  At that isk level, players re-equipping don't care about spending an additional 100m isk to save time.

There was a competitor for Blueprints in a few of the trading hubs - but they seem to have gone now.  Good news - takes me less time to update orders.

Implants were doing well but now it seems the running has been taking up by ship equipment.


Manufacturing

I have stopped doing his for now - i need to find a better way of doing it systematically such that my trading hubs can benefit from items being manufactured in Jita and therefore allowing me to get cost that is closer to the Jita Buy price rather than Jita Sell price.


Planetary Interaction

Started this up again to remind me how it works.  Following the changes to volumes, i can keep my planets going for a long time before i need to pick anything up.

The ultimate aim is to do this in low or null sec.


Station Trading

All in Jita.  This is going ok.  Picked up in December to 35bn isk of sales which is healthy levels.

I still really need to ramp this up but again i don't yet have a systematic way of going about it.

My idea of station trading is not buying items when they look cheap.  For me, station trading is about sticking to the slow moving items and quite often i am the only person in Jita trying to sell an item.  Almost always Selling for over 1bn isk.


Alpha Accounts

They have all now stopped trading.  Other than Arnon and Alentene, all the other locations show little promise at this stage.  I will keep them on but they will be dormant for now.


Current Wealth

Current wealth is 1.18 trillion ISK made up from:
  • Plex held as an investment 0bn ISK
  • Items in hanger for sale 61bn ISK
  • Items in hanger for use in business 11bn ISK
  • Omega brought forward 35bn ISK
  • Buy orders on the market 19bn ISK
  • items for sale 1.3 trillion ISK
  • less a 20% provision 257bn ISK*
  • ISK in wallet 23bn ISK

When i add up my wealth, I don't count assets I use in the course of my business such as ships, fittings etc nor do I add back any expenses such as skills purchased etc.  The wealth I disclose is made up of items that are ISK or are in the process of being converted to ISK or are used to generate isk that can be readily resold back onto the market.  Any ships or skills or fittings etc i buy are counted as expenses in that month.  The only exception to this rule is Blueprint Originals i use for manufacturing.  They are held at cost.

* I take a 20% provision against the items I am selling.  Eve calculates wealth by adding up the value of the sell orders hence it is possible to increase your wealth by buying an item for 100m ISK and putting a sell order for 120m ISK (in this case your wealth would increase by 20m ISK).  For me, I want my wealth to be calculated at cost.  I know that the value of my sell orders will likely fall over time as I update my orders downwards as competition reduces their prices before my items are sold.  Hence the 20% provision is my best guess as to what the maximum reduction I would need to make to my sell orders as a whole before they are sold.  In an ideal world I would value my sell orders at the value which I bought the items for.