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CCP Financials (my forecasts)

Last updated 3 September 2014 <<to be updated>>

Below is the stated numbers for 2011, 2012, 2013, and then my forecasts for 2014 to 2016.  There are plenty of estimates which are discussed in my blog posts under the label "CCP Financials".  My inputs are in yellow.


Numbers are in thousands.


Profit & Loss Account
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Subscription Sales - Eve Online 63,167.1 64,137.0 71,732.7 67,521.9 70,897.9 74,442.8
change y-o-y or h-o-h 10.0% 1.5% 11.8% -5.9% 5.0% 5.0%
Subscription Sales - Eve Online: China 0.0 0.0 1,851.7 4,901.9 5,392.1 5,931.3
change y-o-y or h-o-h 164.7% 10.0% 10.0%
Subscription Sales - Dust 0 0
Subscription Sales - Other games 156.3 300.0 600.0 0.0
Other revenue 1,940.8 859.5 2,537.6 1,440.8 1,440.8 1,440.8
Total Revenue 65,264.2 65,296.5 76,722.0 73,864.6 77,730.8 81,814.9
change 10.2% 0.0% 17.5% -3.7% 5.2% 5.3%
Cost of sales -5,605.4 -4,824.8 -6,875.9 -6,410.1 -6,762.6 -7,117.9
Gross Profits 59,658.7 60,471.8 69,846.1 67,454.5 70,968.3 74,697.0
Gross Profit Margin 91.4% 92.6% 91.0% 91.3% 91.3% 91.3%
R&D -12,972.5 -16,513.7 -35,094.6 -29,947.4 -23,319.3 -24,544.5
% of sales 19.9% 25.3% 45.7% 40.5% 30.0% 30.0%
Publishing -11,313.7 -9,604.4 -9,052.9 -9,162.1 -9,638.6 -10,145.1
% of sales 17.3% 14.7% 11.8% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4%
Marketing -9,912.3 -12,567.3 -14,879.4 -13,883.8 -14,613.4 -15,381.2
% of sales 15.2% 19.2% 19.4% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8%
G&A -17,635.9 -18,968.8 -18,772.2 -18,254.4 -19,199.5 -20,208.3
% of sales 27.0% 29.1% 24.5% 24.7% 24.7% 24.7%
change 4.2% 7.6% -1.0% -2.8% 5.2% 5.3%
Total operating expenses -51,834.4 -57,654.2 -77,799.0 -71,247.8 -66,770.8 -70,279.0
Operating Profits 7,824.3 2,817.6 -7,952.9 -3,793.2 4,197.5 4,418.0
Operating profit margin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Items written off -21,483.3 -23,975.3
Financial Income 40.1 412.7 1,240.7 945.1 56.8 28.9
Financial Cost -1,306.6 -1,867.6 -2,899.9 -2,921.2 -2,921.2 -2,921.2
FX difference -75.0 2,554.2 679.7 337.7 0.0 0.0
PBT 6,482.8 3,916.9 -30,415.7 -29,407.0 1,333.1 1,525.7
Income Tax 2,189.7 796.2 9,067.7 6,230.3 0.0 0.0
PAT 8,672.5 4,713.1 -21,348.1 -23,176.7 1,333.1 1,525.7
FX 144.8 -115.6 0.6 -80.8 0.0 0.0
8,817.3 4,597.6 -21,347.5 -23,257.4 1,333.1 1,525.7
EBTIDA 18,179.9 16,439.7 19,804.7 13,787.2 13,297.5 13,518.0
margin 27.9% 25.2% 25.8% 18.7% 17.1% 16.5%
change 21.5% -9.6% 20.5% -30.4% 195.0% 45.8%
Balance Sheet
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
ASSETS
Non Current Assets
Property, plant & equipment 5,426.5 5,572.8 4,286.3 2,386.8 1,986.8 1,586.8
Goodwill 4,253.0 4,253.0 4,253.0 4,253.0 4,253.0 4,253.0
Development cost 74,768.6 88,011.6 67,339.8 43,103.4 50,412.8 57,722.2
Other intangible assets 543.7 738.7 738.7 738.7 738.7 738.7
Deferred tax assets 439.6 93.8 554.0 1,502.6 1,502.6 1,502.6
Other financial assets 87.0 97.8 815.3 395.0 395.0 395.0
85,518.4 98,767.7 77,987.0 52,379.5 59,288.9 66,198.3
Current Assets
Inventories 161.2 10.0 631.7 631.7 631.7 631.7
Trade receivables 2,141.3 3,641.9 4,544.3 4,544.3 4,544.3 4,544.3
Other receivables 6,130.5 5,528.2 6,305.6 6,305.6 6,305.6 6,305.6
Cash and cash equivalents 3,663.6 20,368.6 14,853.7 11,357.4 5,781.0 397.4
12,096.5 29,548.7 26,335.3 22,839.0 17,262.6 11,879.0
Total Assets 97,614.9 128,316.4 104,322.3 75,218.5 76,551.6 78,077.3
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Equity
Share capital 123.6 124.6 124.9 125.2 125.2 125.2
Share premium 20,342.8 22,768.6 23,445.6 23,925.2 23,925.2 23,925.2
Foreign currency translation reserves 668.8 553.2 553.8 473.0 473.0 473.0
Equity settled employee benefits reserves 4,424.2 4,529.8 6,869.5 7,567.7 7,567.7 7,567.7
Retained earnings 33,952.3 38,665.5 17,317.4 -5,859.3 -4,526.2 -3,000.4
59,511.7 66,641.7 48,311.2 26,231.9 27,565.0 29,090.7
Non-current liabilities
Borrowings 11,497.6 25,761.2 23,312.7 21,718.9 21,718.9 21,718.9
Deferred Tax liabilities 9,824.7 11,713.0 5,507.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Derivative financial instruments 0.0 3,274.7 2,223.7 2,223.7 2,223.7 2,223.7
Other long term liabilities 695.2 1,099.5 1,500.1 1,500.1 1,500.1 1,500.1
22,017.5 41,848.4 32,544.3 25,442.7 25,442.7 25,442.7
Current liabilities
Trade payables 4,610.6 4,705.6 4,485.7 4,485.7 4,485.7 4,485.7
Borrowings 1,091.9 3,051.3 4,112.3 4,189.3 4,189.3 4,189.3
Current portion of other long-term liabilities 97.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deferred income 4,152.3 5,230.7 6,605.8 6,605.8 6,605.8 6,605.8
Other current liabilities 6,133.7 6,838.8 8,263.1 8,263.1 8,263.1 8,263.1
16,085.6 19,826.3 23,466.8 23,543.9 23,543.9 23,543.9
Total liabilities 38,103.2 61,674.8 56,011.1 48,986.6 48,986.6 48,986.6
Total equity and liabilities 97,614.9 128,316.4 104,322.3 75,218.5 76,551.6 78,077.3
Net cash
Long term Loans -11,497.6 -9,735.2 -7,286.7 -5,692.9 -5,692.9 -5,692.9
Short term loans -1,091.9 -3,051.3 -4,112.3 -4,189.3 -4,189.3 -4,189.3
Convertible Bond 0.0 -20,000.0 -20,000.0 -20,000.0 -20,000.0 -20,000.0
Cash 3,663.6 20,368.6 14,853.7 11,357.4 5,781.0 397.4
Net Cash -8,926.0 -12,417.8 -16,545.3 -18,524.9 -24,101.2 -29,484.8
EBITDA 14,965.6 18,179.9 16,439.7 13,777.2 13,297.5 13,518.0
x1.5 22,448.4 27,269.8 24,659.5 20,665.8 19,946.2 20,277.0
Net Debt to EBITDA 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2
Cash Flow Statement
2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Profit for the Period 8,672.5 4,713.1 -21,348.1 -23,176.7 1,333.1 1,525.7
Operating Items not affecting cashflows
Net Financial Cost (-income) 1,341.5 -1,099.3 979.5 1,638.4 2,864.4 2,892.3
Income Tax expense -2,189.7 -796.2 -9,067.7 -6,230.3 0.0 0.0
Depreciation and amortisation 10,355.6 13,622.1 49,241.0 41,545.8 9,100.0 9,100.0
Impairment loss on capitalised development 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity settled employee stock options 759.2 2,048.4 2,772.7 884.2 0.0 0.0
Loss on disposal of assets 49.4 147.2 6.8 -5.0 0.0 0.0
Other items 629.6 1,321.8 -164.0 -12.1 0.0 0.0
10,945.7 15,243.9 43,768.2 37,821.0 11,964.4 11,992.3
Change in operating assets and liabilities
Change in Inventories 183.9 151.1 -621.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in operating assets -112.0 -1,930.4 -1,639.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in operating liabilities 1,660.8 1,736.9 1,359.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1,732.8 -42.4 -902.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial Income Reveived 126.1 2,816.0 57.3 1.3 56.8 28.9
% of opening cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial Cost Paid -1,787.9 -787.5 -714.2 -2,921.2 -2,921.2 -2,921.2
Tax Credit received 3,250.8 3,071.2 2,809.1 2,194.6
Tax Paid 0.0 -244.9 -561.0 -262.7
1,589.0 4,854.8 1,591.2 -988.0 -2,864.4 -2,892.3
Operating Cash Flows 22,940.0 24,769.4 23,109.0 13,656.3 10,433.1 10,625.7
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchase of property, plant and equipment -2,483.6 -1,319.7 -400.1 -400.4 -1,000.0 -1,000.0
Purchase of other intangible assets 0.0 -195.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Development cost -27,798.4 -24,668.5 -26,204.3 -15,009.4 -15,009.4 -15,009.4
Change in other financial assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-30,282.0 -26,183.3 -26,604.4 -15,409.8 -16,009.4 -16,009.4
Free Cash Flows -7,342.0 -1,413.9 -3,495.4 -1,753.5 -5,576.3 -5,383.7
Cash flows from financing activities
Repayments of borrowings -6,231.6 -8,045.6 -2,972.0 -2,076.1 0.0 0.0
New loans raised 12,000.0 19,049.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Short term borrowings 0.0 0.0 63.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net increase in share capital 164.7 484.1 351.1 303.8 0.0 0.0
5,933.1 11,487.5 -2,557.9 -1,772.3 0.0 0.0
Net change in cash -1,408.9 10,073.7 -6,053.4 -3,525.8 -5,576.3 -5,383.7
Cash at beginning of year 11,223.7 9,856.8 20,368.6 14,853.7 11,357.4 5,781.0
FX 42.0 438.2 538.4 29.4 0.0 0.0
Cash at end of year 9,856.8 20,368.6 14,853.7 11,357.4 5,781.0 397.4
Movement in net cash
Net cash at start of year -1,288.4 -8,926.0 -12,417.8 -16,545.3 -18,524.9 -24,101.2
Free Cash Flows -7,342.0 -1,413.9 -3,495.4 -1,753.5 -5,576.3 -5,383.7
Net increase in share capital 164.7 484.1 351.1 303.8 0.0 0.0
Cost of issuing Convertible loan -951.0
Convertible interest timing difference -1,400.0
Increase in Finance Leases -568.6 -519.3
Others 150.3 -653.6 955.3 -500.5 0.0 0.0
Change due to FX -42.0 -438.2 -538.4 -29.4 0.0 0.0
Net cash at end of year -8,926.0 -12,417.8 -16,545.3 -18,524.9 -24,101.2 -29,484.8


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