For what it is worth, i believe the CCP subscriber numbers are about 405k (give or take 20k). Of which 339k pay in cash, and 66k pay using Plex.
Where is this post born from?
The recent podcast episode from Broadcast from the Ninveah pointed me in a post from The Nosy Gamer blog (which i had missed) that attempts to take two snippets of information from CCP to determine the number of subscribers to the game.
Secondly, CCP stated (in the same place) that "We have also noticed a 3% turnout increase since last year . . . " [that is new news].
From this information several bloggers and commentators have made their estimates as to the current number of Eve Online subscribers.
When was the last time we had decent Subscriber number data?
1) the Prospectus issued during 2013 (for the Convertible bond issue) talked of subscriber numbers for the end of 2012.
2) the dev blog post on the CSM8 election results which gave the votes cast by country + Voters as a % of subscribers + % of subscribers back in April 2013.
The Dev Blog is simpler. For the UK it states there were 5,787 voters representing 11.64% of the vote, giving 13.74% of voters as a % of subscribers and therefore 10.28% of subscribers (not easy to take in!).
The way i am reading that is in the UK there were 42,118 subscribers (=5787/13.74%) and so 409,707 total subscribers (=42,118 / 10.28%). It seems to work with all the other countries to give me 409,707 players at that time.
Given the stated 49,702 votes, that indicates that 12.1% of the voters voted.
I am pretty sure that includes Plexed accounts - it does agree with work i have done before and reconciles roughly with information in the Prospectus.
Can we get from there to players at the end of 2013?
Work i have done before suggests there were an average of 476.8k players (subs + plex) during 2013. See at the bottom section of this post for the workings.
Essentially, I have worked from the Eve Online (ex China) revenues, made assumptions for average time of a subscriber / average monthly payment / Plex vs Subs mix to get an answer for the average number of players in the year.
Given that, i assume that the year end number is about 7% higher than the average at 510k because of the upward trajectory in player numbers during the year.
And now to the current Population
We were told last year that the number of voters in the CSM9 election was 31,294.
We were told this year that the number of voters in the CSM10 election was 36,984.
We were told that the increase in turnout was 3%. Now, the simple maths from all this is that:
[CSM10 voters/Population now] - [CSM9 voters/Population last year] = 3%
or, inputing what we know:
[36,984/Population now] - [31,294/510,000] = 3%
That suggests that the Population now is 404.8k.
Below is the relevant part from my spreadsheet that tries to look at revenues generated from subscribers.
Not easy. Also, it looks at average number of subs in the year, not year-end.
Almost all of the workings come from the Prospectus in 2013 for the Convertible Bond issuance.
Starting from the top i have:
- Average number of subs players in the year (excluding Plex players)
- Average lend of sub (i assume 10 months given the steep learning curve)
- How the sub players payment periods are split 1 mth / 3 mths / 6 mths
- Cost per month sub for each period
- and therefore the effective monthly payment from each sub
- Gives total Sub revenues for the year
- Then i make an assumption of how much comes from Plex in the revenues
- That gives me the total revenues
- Below that i try and split those Plex sales into players vs investors
Gives me an average number of players in 2013 as 476,750
For the above, i assume the 2013 year end players are 7% higher than the average given an upward trajectory during 2013 = 1.07 x 476,750 = 510k.
As a check, if i assumed 2014 was going to end 10% below my estimate of the average for 2014 then i would get 0.90 x 449,928 = 405k (which agrees with my estimate above).
|Eve Online - ex China|
|Number of subscribers||355,000||355,000||404,838||383,734|
|average length per subscriber (mths)||10.1||10.2||10.1||10.1|
|Price per subscription for 1 mth||60%||60%||60%||60%|
|Price per subscription for 3 mths||30%||30%||30%||30%|
|Price per subscription for 6 mths||10%||10%||10%||10%|
|Price per month|
|Price per subscription for 1 mth||14.95||14.95||14.95||14.95|
|Price per subscription for 3 mths||11.36||11.36||11.36||11.36|
|Price per subscription for 6 mths||9.55||9.55||9.55||9.55|
|Plex sales (to play, not hoard)||23%||23%||24%||23%|
|Plex sales (to play, not hoard)||14,293,372||14,434,828||17,215,838||15,846,957|
|Price per Plex||19.95||19.95||19.95||19.95|
|Number of Plex sold (to play, not hoard)||716,460||723,550||862,949||794,334|
|Number per month||59,705||60,296||71,912||66,194|
|Additional "accounts" as a % of Paid accounts||17%||17%||18%||17%|
|Total Accounts + Paid & Plex (average)||414,705||415,296||476,750||449,928|
If required, i can go deeper into my workings and thinkings.
[Edit: corrected Typo, Ninveah instead of Nirvana!]