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Saturday, 3 December 2016

Eve Economic Data - is the Trade data released way too low?

The November 2016 Eve Online Economic Report is out - i am going through it as i write but, again, i find myself confused at the Trade data that is released.  In summary, it looks way too low to me.

The really simple explanation for this becomes apparent when i compare the Trade data to the Transaction Tax data.  As a reminder, every sale that is made on the market attracts a Transaction Tax of anywhere between 1.0% (Accounting Skill Level V) to 2.0% (no Accounting Skill).

Now, i would expect the Transaction Tax divided by the Trade data to be 1.0% because the vast majority of all Trade will be done by characters with Level V Accounting.

And indeed in February, March and April the Transaction Tax divided by the Trade data was 1.00%.

But then along came Citadels and the Transaction Tax divided by the Trade data rose at first to 1.31% and in November is now 1.69%.

That suggests to me that either the Transaction Tax data is too high or the Trade data is too low.

If i assumed that the Trade data was too low and if i assumed that the Transaction Tax divided by the Trade data was still 1.00% then i can deduce what i think the Trade data should be - see the table below:

Stated Transaction Assumed Derived
Stated Transaction Tax Tax Derived Citadel
Trade Tax Rate Rate Trade Trade
Feb 977,077 -9,817 1.00% 1.00% 977,077 0
Mar 842,974 -8,336 0.99% 0.99% 842,974 0
Apr 849,840 -8,493 1.00% 1.00% 849,840 0
May 734,239 -9,596 1.31% 1.00% 960,200 225,960
Jun 566,864 -8,068 1.42% 1.00% 807,289 240,425
Jul 514,299 -7,708 1.50% 1.00% 771,246 256,947
Aug 496,178 -7,506 1.51% 1.00% 751,086 254,909
Sep 479,205 -7,713 1.61% 1.00% 771,749 292,544
Oct 513,051 -8,520 1.66% 1.00% 852,525 339,474
Nov 596,011 -10,057 1.69% 1.00% 1,006,316 410,305

What i am doing in the above table is to take the monthly Trade Data in the first column and the monthly Transaction Tax in the second column and dividing them to get the current Transaction Tax Rate in the third column - and there you can see the problem, it is rising above 1.00% consistently.

Therefore, in the fourth column i then assume the Transaction Tax Rate stays at 1.00% and so in the fifth column i recalculate what i think the Trade data should be based on the given Transaction Tax data and this 1.00% rate.  The sixth column then takes the difference between this new Trade number and the monthly data in column 1 to give the missed Trade . . . . . and i am assuming it is the Trade done in Citadels given the Transaction Tax rate only started to deviate from 1.00% once Citadels were launched.

Or, what am i missing?

There is, of course, more to this.

Again, go back to February / March / April and the monthly ISK Volume (given in the economic report downloads) used to equal the monthly Trade data - as expected.

Again, from May onwards this relationship broke down.  However, and this is interesting, the Transaction Tax divided by the Monthly ISK Volume is now a constant 1.29%.  I can not explain that but it is interesting:

ISK Transaction Tax
Volume Tax Rate
Feb 977,156 -9,817 1.00%
Mar 843,028 -8,336 0.99%
Apr 849,886 -8,493 1.00%
May 743,030 -9,596 1.29%
Jun 623,940 -8,068 1.29%
Jul 594,832 -7,708 1.30%
Aug 581,670 -7,506 1.29%
Sep 596,514 -7,713 1.29%
Oct 662,496 -8,520 1.29%
Nov 783,677 -10,057 1.28%

Eitherway, something does not add up


  1. Remember that taxes changed with Citadel. Higher rates at NPC stations along with Citadel owners having controls over tax rates could be driving the higher sink rates.

    1. As far as i can tell, the Transaction Tax rate was unchanged and Citadel owners only have control over Broker Fees?

    2. Base transaction tax was increased from 1.5% to 2% with Citadel.

  2. You think they will ever admit that they are hiding private citadel transactions?
    I was under the impression that they only wanted market data from public citadels into the numbers

    1. i am not sure - still trying to determine if my thinking is correct to be honest. There do seem to be many items pointing in my favour